UFC Des Moines Best Bets and Predictions: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo, taking place at the Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa on Saturday.

UFC Des Moines Betting Picks

Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson

Rodriguez to Win (+240)
Rodriguez by Points (+370)

Gillian Robertson is simply too one dimensional to merit this sort of betting line in strawweight's top 10 -- even in a positive matchup.

Robertson is an ace on the ground, attempting 6.87 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing a decent clip of those (39%). She's thrived since cutting down to 115 pounds with a 4-1 record. The problem? The one setback was in the rankings against Tabatha Ricci where she landed just one of four takedowns and had a -21 distance strike differential.

That makes the gameplan for Marina Rodriguez simple. Stuff the shots and win the fight. Her 62% takedown defense has been shaky about doing so, but that's come facing six ranked opponents in her last seven fights. She's also never been submitted in UFC despite the strength of schedule.

At distance, Rodriguez's +1.60 striking success rate (SSR) should stomp Robertson's -0.06 mark. I've got her 36.3% likely (+175 implied) to win the fight, and 31.0% of the time, it's Rodriguez by decision.

Jeremy Stephens vs. Mason Jones

Jones by Points (+175)

Des Moines native Jeremy Stephens got a one-fight UFC contract to make the walk in his hometown despite a 15-18 record that led to him getting cut in 2021.

People love a hometown fighter, but his opponent, Mason Jones, needs a win after legitimately earning his way back into UFC. Jones' exodus was regarded as premature given a 1-2 (1 NC) record against four multi-time winners. He's dominated Cage Warriors with four straight wins to earn his way back.

Stephens' best days in UFC came at 145, but he's now battling 155ers at 38 years old. That wasn't as much of a problem in bare-knuckle boxing, but expect worse than even his average 65% takedown D competing up in weight.

Jones averages 3.16 takedowns landed per 15 minutes behind solid efficiency (45%). As frustrating as it might be for these hometown fans, the Welsh fighter can always pop the safety valve if he's not outlanding "Lil' Heathen" at distance.

I've got Jones winning this fight 65.6% of the time. He's not historically a submission threat, so that comes via decision 55.8% of the time. I can definitely see Stephens grinding to the end of a lopsided decision loss.

Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos

Jackson Wins Inside the Distance (+250)

Y'all gotta stop doubting my guy "Quik".

Montel Jackson's biggest career win came last July against Da'Mon Blackshear (6-4-1 UFC) with an 18-second knockout. That wasn't a surprise to me -- or my model. Jackson's 3.49% knockdown rate. (KD%) is gigantic, and he might be one of the most underrated bantamweights on the planet.

His striking accuracy (53%) and defense (63%) are both elite, but it's his ground game that provides the most obvious path to victory against Daniel Marcos. He's landed an astounding 71% of 4.80 takedown attempts per 15 minutes.

Marcos' entry-level takedown D (88%) is solid, but we've yet to see the Peruvian striker on his back. Jackson, a five-time UFC winner by finish, is a dangerous guy to face for a first test of those disadvantageous positions.

I've got Jackson 50.4% likely to win inside the distance and don't want to get cute guessing how he gets it done. Marcos' submission defense is totally untested, but the favorite also has elite power to flatten him at distance.

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez

Fight Ends by Knockout (+180)
Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO (+380)

Unfortunately, the wide line in Saturday's main event makes the co-main my last stop of the night here.

A welterweight banger between Santiago Ponzinibbio and Daniel Rodriguez is no poor consolation prize, though. These two strikers should get down to business, which is why these lines might be a bit undervalued.

Both are 38 years old with mounting attrition, but I'm not sure Rodriguez's is getting enough credit. After all, "D-Rod" has lost just once by (T)KO in 23 pro fights, and it was a random head kick by Ian Machado Garry (9-1 UFC).

However, he also hasn't faced extreme power threats, including Machado Garry. Ponzinibbio's 1.06 KD% is the highest opposing mark of Rodriguez's entire career, topping Kelvin Gastelum's 0.77%.

Of course, "The Argentine Dagger" has also been dropped three times in his last four fights. That one needs less explanation.

I've got this fight 34.5% likely (+190 implied) to end by knockout, and 24.2% of the time, it's a (T)KO in the favorite's direction. Rodriguez's low KD% (0.35%) has me leaning it would be Ponzinibbio getting the job done, but I'll ladder these outcomes when not fully trusting either's chin.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.