UFC Austin: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC Austin: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan, taking place at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas on Saturday.

Jamie-Lyn Horth vs. Veronica Hardy

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)

This appetizer has a bit of intrigue solely because of how poor each of these two's last opponents have proven to be.

Jamie-Lyn Horth stepped in on short notice to defeat Hailey Cowan (0-1 UFC) and demolished her. She landed 73% of her significant strikes to Cowan's 42%. That was extremely impressive when this is likely her true weight class, having competed at 125 pounds as recently as 2019 (three fights ago). She also defended 75% of Cowan's takedown attempts, but all of this comes with a grain of salt when Cowan is an unknown quantity herself.

On the other side, Veronica Hardy -- the wife of ostracized-from-UFC analyst Dan Hardy -- made a successful debut at 125 pounds back in March after a 1-4 stint at bantamweight to begin her career. The question does loom whether she landed 80% of her significant strikes in that one-way traffic because of her own improvements or if Julianna Miller's notoriously horrid striking defense (32%) was a rising tide to lift all ships.

Hardy's -1.03 striking success rate (SSR) overall is still a gigantic red flag, and if anything, her striking speed is reduced at this smaller weight class. Plus, she's only defended 55% of takedowns historically if Horth attempts her first in this one.

This is a low-level fight in the newly founded women's flyweight division, so Horth's three inches of height and two inches of reach are a big deal. She also profiles to be more dangerous in general, entering UFC on a five-fight finishing streak when Hardy has three career wins by finish total (and only one in UFC).

Just looking into previous peripheral stats and size, Horth appears to be a worthy favorite here, and the added dimension that Dana White likely wants Dan -- who still corners her -- away from the promotion as soon as possible only exacerbates those feelings.

Betting Verdict

• Under 2.5 rounds (+225) is my favorite bet in this fight. Regionally, Horth was a finisher, but this is also a massive weight cut for her 5'7" frame. It won't be my largest play on Saturday's card, but a sub-one-unit nibble will make the betting slip.

DFS Verdict

• Both of these ladies deserve skepticism for not finishing their previous, weaker opponent, but Horth ($18) might be undersold for a finish given a short-notice debut. Hardy's was on a full training camp. Flex consideration is deserved.

Wellington Turman vs. Jared Gooden

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Wellington Turman's minimal UFC success shows just how crucial it is that the promotion -- that doesn't use analytics to make decisions -- just sees success at the right times.

Turman's only has three UFC wins in eight fights, and all were shaky. He beat Markus Perez with a -1 striking differential, found a come-from-behind submission on Misha Cirkunov, and took a split decision over Sam Alvey. The problem? Those three fighters have a combined 0-11-1 record since the start of 2020. Zoinks!

I have to admit, Turman's first attempt in May at welterweight wasn't awful. He lost, but surviving the entire duration of a -9 striking differential against Randy Brown was better than I expected. Jared Gooden also went to a modestly competitive decision with Brown, so this matchup was a pretty natural one to spot.

Gooden has already been handed his walking papers, but he got back into UFC agreeing to fight Carlston Harris (4-1 UFC) back in March. Gooden's 1-4 record came with just a knockout triumph over Nikolas Stolze (0-3 UFC), but he did survive all four bouts against fighters with a combined 25 UFC wins. His competition has been superior to Turman's to this point.

With that in mind, Gooden's 48% striking D and 68% takedown D are both better than the 46% and 45% marks, respectively, of Turman.

This fight is -128 to go the distance, and I couldn't imagine sweating the -200 moneyline on Turman when he's really never fought a clean UFC fight. Gooden's knockout power is at least present, and he'll have five inches in reach. This is a 'dog-or-pass scenario if any ever existed.

Betting Verdict

• Gooden's moneyline (+160) is high enough that I'll bite with decent samples on both. I feel like he's got better power, a key reach advantage, and Turman's awful takedown accuracy (19%) will struggle to get him away from those problems.

DFS Verdict

• Gooden ($11) is my favorite value play in this setting on the prelims. I see paths to a knockout, but he's also posted a solid 4.73 significant strikes per minute and could make the optimal lineup with a decision.

Rodolfo Bellato vs. Ihor Potieria

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Man, did Rodolfo Bellato get hosed in his appearance on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) or what?

Bellato drew Vitor Petrino (4-0 UFC) for the second time in their careers during the 2022 season of the trial show, but Petrino is an unstoppable finishing machine hurdling toward the 205-pound rankings. Bellato has done everything well outside of losing twice to Petrino, including picking up an upset, second-round KO during the 2023 season to earn this official start. Bellato's 45% striking D is a concern, but he's done well to put 5.39 significant strikes per 15 minutes out there himself.

He'll draw an equally aggressive opponent this weekend, Ukraine's Ihor Potieira. Potieria didn't earn many fans by taunting 41-year-old Shogun Rua in his retirement fight after a KO win, and to date, that's still his only UFC victory. Carlos Ulberg (6-1 UFC) and Nicolae Negumereanu (4-2 UFC) flatlined him. Potieria's defense has been next-level awful with a 42% striking D and 33% takedown D; Rua's lack of punching power was his saving grace.

That's absolutely not the case with the 27-year-old Brazilian, "Trator" Bellato. He's got six wins by KO including the DWCS fight, but he's also got four regional wins via submission. That's a huge note in this fight should it hit the mat due to desperation, strategy, or otherwise.

Poteiria's accumulated a negative striking differential in all three fights except the Shogun squash match. I don't see him as a legitimate light heavyweight that's long for the roster.

Betting Verdict

• Potieria has yet to land a takedown in UFC with poor defense, so I just don't believe he's comfortably there. I actually feel Bellato's submission prop (+300) could be undervalued given how easily takedowns have come against "The Duelist" with the promotion.

DFS Verdict

• A loss by the favorite would be both his first to anyone not named the surging Petrino and the first time that Potieria has put together a top-shelf effort against a UFC contender in their prime. The floor here is still low, but Bellato ($23) is an appropriately sized favorite with finishing first-round finishing upside in both domains.

Drakkar Klose vs. Joe Solecki

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Lightweight will be showcased plenty on this card, and this is a great example why it's so deep.

Drakkar Klose has a 7-2 UFC record with all fights coming since the start of 2017. That's a ranked fighter in most divisions, but a long layoff due to a neck injury caused in pre-fight scuffle halted his run. Returning in 2022, Klose was one of many that would or will knock out Brandon Jenkins (0-2 UFC), but his second fight against veteran Rafa Garcia (4-3 UFC) answered far more questions.

Klose defended 8 of the wrestler's 11 takedown attempts, but Garcia had surprising success at distance, landing 53% of his strikes. Klose's 69% takedown D has always been a strength, and he's best served for matchups like Joe Solecki.

We'll see if Solecki can get the best of him -- as he has pretty much everyone. His only career split decision "loss" to Jared Gordon still included 4 takedowns landed and north of 6:00 in control time. For all intents and purposes, that was a draw if scoring allowed for one without a lopsided round.

Solecki is an elite grappler, landing 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy. This guy held down the legendary Jim Miller (11-3 in UFC via submission) for 9:23 of their 15-minute bout. Solecki's also been surprisingly accurate at distance (55% striking accuracy).

At the end of the day, Klose's UFC return matchup was a cupcake, and his fight with Garcia -- a less-skilled grappler -- showed a lot of holes with both striking defense and escaping Garcia's grasp. Plus, the 35-year-old has been out since July 2022 due to a torn ACL after that bout. With injuries mounting at an advanced age, he shouldn't be favored against an ostensibly undefeated grappler at this point.

Betting Verdict

• I'll fire at Solecki's moneyline (+110) here. He really hasn't shown a weakness other than a 50% takedown D that comes by choice to get to his elite grappling. Klose's age and injury concerns represent far from a huge step up in competition.
• Solecki has been to a decision in four of six UFC bouts, but the exceptions were first-round submissions. Klose's takedown D has been good enough to believe there's length. It won't likely be an easy-takedown-and-win scenario.

DFS Verdict

• Even with a potentially poor DFS environment in a decision, Solecki ($13) is the value play of the two. Klose's upside for a finish would be the first time we've even seen Solecki in a truly dangerous position; I just don't see that top-shelf outcome for the favorite.

Zach Reese vs. Cody Brundage

Middleweight (185 pounds)

This is a highly volatile glass cannon of a middleweight bout. The only true surprise would be length beyond a few minutes.

The embattled, infamous Cody Brundage is the UFC veteran of this matchup, and it's been quite the ride. Brundage's 5 UFC-affiliated losses have come to guys with 21 UFC-affiliated wins themselves, so he's yet to be crushed by a true "can", but it's been ugly. Brundage's fight IQ is some of the worst on the roster, pulling guard against multi-time BJJ world champion Rodolfo Vieira (4-2 UFC) and taking a fight with Sedriques Dumas (2-1 UFC) on days' notice to get tired in about 90 seconds.

Brundage was handed a gift in the process of a September beating at the hands of Jacob Malkoun. Malkoun landed an inadvertent elbow to the back of his head, which gave Brundage a first-round win by DQ as the lesser man. He's almost certainly outmatched moving up UFC's internal ranks to face Zach Reese now.

Reese is a newcomer with only a 74-second submission on DWCS back in August to his name. The undefeated prospect certainly fought at a high pace, landing 6.49 significant strikes per minute and 12.3 submission attempts per 15. I'm not overly concerned about his -2.43 SSR or 31% striking D on paper through the cup of coffee; 6 of the 10 distance strikes he absorbed were just leg kicks.

Brundage is at a massive size deficit with Reese holding a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage. While his 73% takedown D has been solid, Brundage's chin hasn't survived no more than three minutes against the two "power strikers" on his resumé, Michal Oleksiejczuk (7-4 UFC) and William Knight (3-4 UFC).

The underdog's poor chin, poor 46% striking D, and lack of cardiovascular endurance have earned him a firm ban from yours truly. I'm not rushing to bet on the -235 rookie, but it's him or pass.

Betting Verdict

• Reese's knockout prop (+190) could be a source of value for two reasons. He earned a submission in his first UFC-affiliated appearance, and Brundage's poor striking D is well-documented. That's the only nibble I want on this fight.

DFS Verdict

• By offensive volume, Reese ($20) is one to watch in environments where he's favored for an early finish. He's a larger favorite over Brundage than he was on DWCS. There's risk here, but the end result is an MVP candidate that makes plenty of sense.

Julia Avila vs. Miesha Tate

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

To be frank, I'd have expected Meisha Tate to re-retire at this stage, but this isn't a sport that provides generational wealth. I get it; I've got bills, too.

Tate's first retirement came in 2016 when she was dominated by Amanda Nunes and Raquel Pennington, and frankly, she fooled us badly returning. She was one of five consecutive opponents to beat a 40-plus-year-old Marion Reneau at the end of Reneau's career. Since, Tate has decisively lost decisions to Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy, accumulating a -8 striking differential and wearing plenty of scar tissue.

"Cupcake" really has the same issues she faced before retiring. Her 51% striking D isn't strong, and she's also been physically dominated by modern 135ers with just a 55% takedown D. Tate used to wrestle with volume to skate by a previous era, but her 29% takedown accuracy is now unmanageably poor.

Luckily for her, we don't have much conviction that Julia Avila will be much more dangerous. At 35 to Tate's 37, she's not that much younger, either. Avila stormed out of the gates with dominant wins over Pannie Kianzad, Gina Mazany, and Julija Stoliorenko -- all of whom can call themselves multi-time winners. However, we haven't seen "Raging Panda" since 2021 due to needing a regular job for insurance as a new mother. Terrible look, Dana.

Avila's current form is a total unknown, but oddsmakers are decently confident to make her a favorite, and I'd generally concur. At worst, her superior athleticism -- with which she landed a knockdown or submission attempt in every win -- seems to be an issue for Tate's flyweight frame.

Outside of the Reneau fight, Tate's been dominated by two fighters that my model generally feels are heavily overvalued as is. Personally, Avila's ambiguity doesn't make her a value spot.

Betting Verdict

• This just isn't a fight to bet. Avila's current state is arguably overvalued with a -148 moneyline, but Tate's current form is a trainwreck.

DFS Verdict

• A DFS environment is the only reason you'd consider this bout, and Avila ($17) makes more sense as a contrarian mid-range favorite in that setting. She's never ceded more than 85 FanDuel points, so I don't really think Tate ($13) is worth the minimal salary savings, either.

Joaquim Silva vs. Clay Guida

Lightweight (155 pounds)

It's 2023, and somehow, Clay Guida is still in a featured prelim in front of a live crowd. Bananas.

"The Carpenter" is 41 years old and still bringing his lunch pail. Guida has aged like fine wine behind his one-of-a-kind style where his striking D (61%) rarely leaves him rocked. The UFC has done him favors with some favorable matchups against grapplers in that regard, but seemingly every Guida fight devolves into a sloppy striking match if Clay isn't landing his own takedowns.

On the surface, you see Joaquim Silva's 58% takedown defense and wonder if Guida can grind one out, but Silva's level of competition has been significantly better. He just stepped in on late notice to demolish his career-long peripherals against Arman Tsarukyan (7-1 UFC), and he's also fought Nasrat Haqparast, Jared Gordon, and other strikers on the fringe of the lightweight rankings.

Silva's black belt in BJJ kept him safe against Tsarukyan, but he also could use it offensively here given Guida's seven UFC losses by sub. You'd also figure the 34-year-old is a stronger striker if for no other reason than wrestler Rafa Garcia just tattooed Guida in April, landing 141 significant strikes with 49% accuracy.

Guida's path to victory here is taking Silva down and avoiding his danger to earn a submission. His only win via finish since the start of 2018 came against 43-year-old Leo Santos in 2022. He's just not overly dangerous, and I'm surprised UFC has given him a multi-time promotional winner in his prime. Guida has lost to the last six guys he's faced that would generally fit that description.

Betting Verdict

• Silva's own chin issues (three UFC losses by KO) make him an absolute no-go at a -355 moneyline, but I don't mind his submission prop (+350) here. He's yet to secure a submission in UFC, but his skills in that department are incredibly present.

DFS Verdict

• Guida's durability and defense have historically made him a shaky target for an MVP candidate. With that said, Silva ($21) still has an obvious path to fantasy points whether it's via lighting up Guida standing (as Garcia did) or finding a submission (as Claudio Puellas did).

Punahele Soriano vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Middleweight (185 pounds)

The scariest thing in UFC is a line that doesn't move despite getting walloped at every sportsbook. That's this one.

Punahele Soriano is a fan favorite for good reason. He's got a super fun knockdown rate (1.85%), and all three of his UFC wins have come via knockout. He's been losing to exclusively quality competition. Roman Kopylov, Nick Maximov, and top-10 middleweight Brendan Allen have a combined 19 UFC wins between them. On paper, Soriano doesn't have a bad loss.

However, the way they've happened is extremely concerning. Soriano's 30% takedown defense could be a critical weakness against any wrestler. He even ceded both attempts to Dalcha Lungiambula in his latest win, dropping the first round before KO'ing Lungiambula in the second. He's ceded 14 of his last 19 attempts faced. Plus, Soriano's -0.18 SSR, 45% striking accuracy, and 48% striking D are all poor for someone who has to make their hay there.

Really, my one question in this fight is if Dustin Stoltzfus can survive his power. If that answer is yes, there are a lot of boxes checked in the underdog's direction.

Stoltzfus isn't a strong striker, but his -0.32 SSR isn't that far behind. His efficiencies lie in the 40%-range, as well. The difference between these two? Stoltzfus is a grappler, landing 1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes with decent 35% accuracy. He controlled Gerald Meerschaert for over seven minutes on the mat, and he also broke the arm of Joe Pyfer (3-0 UFC) with a slam on DWCS.

Really, the only thing I'm nervous about is the spot. This isn't the featured prelim to boost Stoltzfus' grappling prowess, and Dustin was just knocked out in 19 seconds in his last fight. However, wouldn't those facts lead to a moneyline larger than -290? This is the most intriguing betting spot on the card to me.

Betting Verdict

• For such a heavy favorite, Soriano truly has one path to win by knockout. Stotltzfus has a three-inch edge in reach for a point fight and is the significantly better grappler. I think I've got to trepidatiously fire on +225.
• Soriano's knockout prop (+110) is bizarrely long for the attention it's surely commanding as his only UFC win condition to this point. With that in mind, the safer angle on this fight could be for it to go the distance (+150).

DFS Verdict

• Stoltzfus ($9) fills the punt-level underdog role when it wouldn't be wildly surprising to see an early submission. Compared to Potieria or 41-year-old Clay Guida, I see him as the target with the most realistic win equity in this tier.

Sean Brady vs. Kelvin Gastelum

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Can Kelvin Gastelum heroically make the weight class that's so obviously appropriate for his frame? He did Friday, so we'll see.

The 5'9" Gastelum will still be on the short side for 170 pounds, so he stuck out like a sore thumb at 185 pounds for most of his UFC career. Personally, the 32-year-old always felt much less trimmed out than most of his competitors, and that's a huge deal. A more appropriate class could change his fighting outlook dramatically.

At middleweight, Gastelum was a one-dimensional power puncher whose knockdown rate (0.87%) rarely matched the poor 41% accuracy and inconsistent offense that came with it. He also didn't wrestle much at all with a 62% takedown D. He dropped five of his last seven at middleweight, so the improvements you'd hope to see at 170 pounds are more efficient striking with a better relative reach and improved takedown accuracy and/or defense from added strength.

If those don't exist, Sean Brady is certainly no easy out. Brady was seen a title contender before his October 2022 bout with Belal Muhammad. Muhammad stuffed all of Brady's patented wrestling (2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes) and resigned him to a distance fight he was bound to lose. Muhammad stopped him in the second round, but that's no bad loss with Muhammad since defeating Gilbert Burns and next in line for 170's title shot.

Brady hadn't been resigned to distance before the Belal bout, so it stands to reason he's not great at it. Therefore, this fight likely comes down to Gastelum's takedown defense at this new weight class. If he's still poor there, Brady probably coasts. If he's improved, Gastelum is almost certainly the stronger striker.

If Brady weren't an extremely efficient wrestler, I'd have more optimism that Kelvin could hold him off, but Sean has taken down everyone outside of Muhammad and his legendary 93% takedown D. I feel safe not expecting Gastelum's defense to be on that level, and there are cardio and longevity concerns -- big ones -- even if it does.

Betting Verdict

• I debated not modeling this fight because Gastelum is likely a different fighter at welterweight, but using middleweight stats, it does believe Brady should be a -175 favorite here. That only backs up my line of thinking that he's appropriately favored.
• Brady has a 60.0% decision rate in UFC, and Gastelum's last win by finish came in 2017. I agree with the model's assessment that this fight goes its entire duration 65.4% of the time.

DFS Verdict

• You could justify a pass at mid-range salaries if this fight is going the distance, but there is finishing upside from both. It's not a slam dunk. Brady ($15) comes at a passable mark even when not expecting 100-plus FanDuel points in a dominant finish.
  • At a higher salary, I'd have much more reservation.

Rob Font vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

We knew Deiveson Figueiredo would be heading to bantamweight at some point, so let the superfights begin.

The former UFC flyweight champion had one of the most brutal weight cuts in the sport to make 125 pounds, so for what he lacks in size at 135, he could absolutely be a better fighter in terms of energy, speed, and consistency. A "better" Figgy is a pretty harrowing proposition when he had a 2.13% knockdown rate and averaged 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes at flyweight.

He leaves the 125-pound division with a -0.41 SSR, but on top of most of that due to a -66 striking differential in the quadrilogy with Brandon Moreno, he's always been a home-run hitter. Perhaps he'll show more volume without the weight cut, and his wrestling (1.44 takedowns per 15 with 42% accuracy) was always strong at a lower weight class.

Rob Font is an intriguing first opponent. The boxer's +2.01 SSR hasn't always told the full story -- most evidently when getting dropped three times by Chito Vera despite a +112 striking differential. He's very much a jab-oriented, volume fighter but did knockout Adrian Yañez (5-2 UFC) back in May. Font's 46% takedown defense has always been his kryptonite, and seven takedowns allowed cost him an August main event against Cory Sandhagen following the Yañez fight.

Font is 36, and Figueiredo is 35, so there is a ton of unknown here -- especially with Figueiredo at a new weight class. However, if Deiveson's transitive skills show up in either domain, I think he beats Rob Font.

Font has allowed five knockdowns in his last four fights, and Figgy's power at flyweight was one of one. It could conceivably be better without a deathly weight cut. Plus, Figueredo landed 10 takedowns in the Moreno series, and we know he'll absolutely be fresher to land them at 135. Size could be a concern against other stockier bantamweights, but the lanky Font isn't an issue.

I never love fighters moving up in weight, but the only instance of a championship-level flyweight-to-bantamweight transition we have didn't work out too badly for Henry Cejudo. This matchup is a great one for Figueiredo; if it's not here, it won't work at all at 135 pounds.

Betting Verdict

• My model loves Rob Font. It sees him as one of the best strikers in UFC, but all significant strikes aren't created equal. When it only has Font as a -105 favorite, I'm very confident that Figueiredo is the right side as a +112 underdog.
• Font's recent knockout and Figueiredo's general existence are giving the model a lean toward the under here, projecting the fight to finish early 53.7% of the time.

DFS Verdict

• Figueiredo ($12) is the type of underdog I love to target. In a three-round fight, my model is giving him a 32.2% to win inside the distance. For comparison, Font is just at 21.5%. If I get the more dangerous guy at a discount, that's all I can ask for.

Jalin Turner vs. Bobby Green

Lightweight (155 pounds)

I prepped this fight early in the week assuming it might not happen. Jalin Turner, a former welterweight on short notice, was hard-pressed to make 155 here, but he got there.

Turner's cyborg-like frame at 155 pounds and evolving skillset are a tough out most nights. His striking defense (41%) encompasses the massive amounts of leg kicks he faces as a 6'3" 155-pounder, but he's still amassed a +1.21 SSR and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes, winning all seven of his UFC fights by finish.

Turner will meet his match with another ranked lightweight, Bobby Green, in this one. The always-active Green is turning it around less than two months following a 33-second knockout of Grant Dawson for one of the biggest upsets in the history of the sport. Green's punching power (0.29% knockdown rate) hasn't always been present, but he ran circles around Dawson to land a haymaker quickly.

With a +2.49 SSR, Green has beaten up on unranked lightweights for years, so I'm not surprised his 52% striking accuracy and 62% striking defense have translated to the sport's ranked level. He's also added 1.21 takedowns per 15 minutes himself, which is a noted caveat given Turner's two-fight skid has included four takedowns allowed.

This should be a fascinating stylistic matchup. Turner's never one to actively give away his 77" reach, so this fight likely happens on the feet -- just where Bobby Green wants it. Turner's length hasn't come with supreme skill; he had a -22 striking differential at distance against Dan Hooker in July. Hooker was initially scheduled to face Green here.

I'm never one to pick against "King" Green in a striking match, yet the 37-year-old has shown a shakier chin as he ages, so that KO path wouldn't be overly surprising here. However, given this fight's on short notice, I see Turner's early, modest success on the feet turning into a runaway fight in Green -- always reliable for 15 minutes -- as it proceeds forward.

Betting Verdict

• In a fight I'm expecting to play out at distance, my model -- which doesn't make stylistic assumptions -- expects Green to win the distance striking battle 81.3% of the time. That's a big reason why it's pegging him as 52.6% likely to win this fight overall.
  • Green's punching power still just isn't mighty; I've got his decision prop at +185 compared to the tremendous +350 odds on FanDuel.
• Green's most likely path to win is via decision, but Turner's is almost exclusively inside the distance. My model has this fight to end early 61.2% of the time, but I wouldn't bet that. Turner has consecutive decision losses in this higher tier of competition.

DFS Verdict

• Green ($10) is tremendous value in this fight if there's any length to it. On top of the potential to win, he posts a rock-solid 4.27 FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses) in a gigantic, 23-fight UFC sample.

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Beneil Dariush

Lightweight (155 pounds)
Five-Round Main Event

A stunning result in June entirely changed lightweight's title picture, and it set up this delightful main event.

Both Arman Tsarukyan and Beneil Dariush are well-rounded martial artists with several UFC wins to their name, but it was Dariush who had his opportunity of the two to earn a title shot this summer. Instead, he was knocked out by former divisional champion Charles Oliveira, leaving the 34-year-old searching for answers.

Dariush did just dispense of Mateusz Gamrot (6-2 UFC) in the best win either of these two have by a country mile. Tsarukyan lost via a split decision to Gamrot in June 2022, and there was nothing "split" about Benny's. Dariush has historically mixed his striking (+1.16 SSR) and wrestling (1.91 takedowns per 15) as well as anyone, and he's got five UFC wins by submission.

Tsarukyan has been on prospect watchlists for years following a late-notice decision loss to Islam Makhachev in 2019. He was the projected (and now current) champion's toughest fight by a good margin, and Arman's only other UFC "loss" was the tight one to Gamrot. Tsarukyan is a freak athlete for the division, bowling over lesser foes with his striking (+1.91 SSR) and wrestling (3.43 takedowns per 15) himself.

This matchup all comes down to styles. With a higher striking accuracy (49%) and defense (58%) than Tsarukyan, it's easy to see why most project Beneil to win this fight at distance. In that range, Arman landed just 37% of his strikes on Gamrot compared to 45% -- and a knockdown -- for Dariush.

Tsarukyan may need to wrestle, and while his volume and cardio have been exceptional, his 36% takedown accuracy -- especially given the lesser quality of competition -- leaves quite a bit to be desired. That's especially true given Dariush defended 15 of 19 attempts from Gamrot and holds an exceptional 80% takedown D overall.

Interestingly, Tsarukyan has never attempted an official UFC submission, either. If his grappling is deficient at all, that's another win path for the underdog -- one whose gray hair and recent loss might be underselling how much the veteran has left in the tank.

Betting Verdict

• With age as a factor in my model, I still have Dariush at 51.5% to win this fight on the strength of better competition, a higher knockdown rate (0.91%), and better striking efficiency.
  • Though not super exciting, it's got Dariush's decision prop at +215 compared to +550 at FanDuel.
• I've got this fight as 59.1% likely to finish the full distance. Tsarukyan and Dariush both went there with Gamrot, so it makes sense. It is difficult to finish these high-level lightweights in the sport's toughest division.

DFS Verdict

• Though both doors are open if distance is expected, I'm walking through the one with Dariush ($13) when showing incredible value on him to win outright. Truly, this fight would be a coin flip if not for the Oliveria result in June.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.