UFC Abu Dhabi Best Bets: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov, taking place at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Picks

Jai Herbert vs. Rolando Bedoya

Bedoya to Win (+100)

This line has dropped dramatically from +152 on Sunday to +100 here -- and for very good reason.

Rolando Bedoya already had tons of positives at welterweight (170 pounds), but improved conditioning to make lightweight (155) should only be another. Bedoya's +1.87 striking success rate (SSR) in two appearances came against a pair of fighters with 11 UFC wins between them in their prime. He just was unlucky on the scorecards to fall to an 0-2 record.

Jai Herbert is a phenomenal first lightweight matchup for him. Herbert's -0.46 SSR also features poor striking accuracy (41%) and defense (45%). Averaging just 0.20 takedowns per 15 minutes with pitiful accuracy (10%), I'm not sure he's got the grappling to escape Bedoya's projected comfortable margin at distance.

Bedoya is 15 octagon minutes away from being eligible for my model, but I have zero doubts he'd be a favorite with these numbers if he was. Any form of plus money is a solid wager.

Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez

Godinez to Win (+100)
Godinez to Win Inside the Distance (+900)

Once a top prospect as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu (BJJ) world champion, Mackenzie Dern's championship hopes have crumbled.

Dern has lost four of her last six fights and hasn't secured a signature submission since April 2021. Against ranked fighters, you need more than excellent BJJ, and her -0.78 SSR and division-worst 15% takedown accuracy (min. 30 attempts) haven't met the grade.

If Loopy Godinez can avoid getting submitted, she should handily win minutes here, and Godinez has never suffered that fate as a pro. Loopy's +0.55 SSR comes with phenomenal striking defense (63%), and she's posted 3.04 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid efficiency (46% land rate). Dern's 28% takedown defense is awful as most don't dare to try her there, but Godinez might.

Two sub-0.35% knockdown rates should only further the trend of women's strawweight (115 pounds) fights going the full distance. My model expects that to be the case 73.1% of the time.

In that event, I've got Godinez modeled as 55.1% likely to win, and it believes she wins 17.0% of the time (+490 implied) by knockout or submission. Both are good value bets as Dern might be the larger "name" in this main card matchup.

Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Oleksiejczuk to Win (+210)

If interested in taking the right approach, there are multiple ways Michal Oleksiejczuk can end a two-fight losing skid.

This fight is a co-main event as Shara Magomedov, the one-eyed self-proclaimed pirate of middleweight, has quickly become a fan favorite behind his story and his unique kicks. His offense has been fun, landing 7.10 significant strikes per minute with 74% accuracy. However, there's a reason "Bullet" is not sanctioned to fight on U.S. soil with one eye -- shown by a 35% striking defense.

That's playing with fire against Oleksiejczuk, who lands a good rate of significant strikes per minute (5.07) with solid accuracy (50%) himself in a larger sample. Even more concerning, "Hussar" has a gigantic 1.69% knockdown rate and used to fight at light heavyweight (205 pounds). At middleweight (185), he's an absolute hammer.

Magomedov has never attempted a takedown and prides himself on not doing so, which has been Oleksiejczuk's historical kryptonite (48% defense).

In a striking match, I'd argue Michal has power and efficiency advantages, and Oleksiejczuk (7-6 UFC) is easily Bullet's toughest test to date. His first two opponents sport a combined UFC record of 4-6.

Though unable to model Shara's small sample, there's no doubt Oleksiejczuk should be much shorter than +210 to win this one.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Under 4.5 Rounds (+108)

I waffled endlessly about this fight because my model's verdict seems to conflict itself, so I settled for slight value on this total.

Cory Sandhagen has faced significantly stiffer UFC competition than Umar Nurmagomedov. As many are scared to face Khabib's cousin and 135-pound protégé, he's yet to face a ranked opponent, which is even more of an indictment of his standing as a favorite here when he was dropped and nearly knocked out early in his last fight against Bekzat Almakhan (0-1 UFC).

Conversely, "The Sandman" has faced ranked foes (at the time of the fight) in his last seven. With that taken into consideration, his +1.93 SSR is sensational, and he's added 10 takedowns in his last two fights -- a showcase of evolution from a once-one-dimensional striker.

However, there's a huge question. Can Sandhagen (64% takedown D) keep his feet when Umar has posted 4.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 56% accuracy? I've got Nurmagomedov projected for 11.00 takedowns in a full 25 minutes on Saturday, which would go a long way to winning this fight.

While still believing Nurmagomedov is a worthy favorite (modeled at 59.5% to win), I've got him just -150 implied. There's value on Sandhagen that might not cash a vast majority of the time.

Instead, I'm looking at oddsmakers on this fight's total, projecting it to start Round 4 at a 61.1% clip when FanDuel's implied odds for that are 67.7%. Nurmagomedov's submission danger (0.6 attempts per 15) and Sandhagen's history of power (38.5% UFC knockout rate) might be just a touch undervalued here -- especially after the favorite's lapse of durability in March against Almakhan.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.