UFC 318 DFS Picks: Holloway vs. Poirier 3

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3, taking place at the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana on Saturday.

UFC 318 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Bruno Ferreira ($23)

It's bordeline insane that "The Hulk" has finished four-different multi-time UFC winners yet is allowed to face a raw debutant like Jackson McVey. It shouldn't even be sanctioned -- but it is. Ferreira is -310 to win inside the first two rounds and has the knockdown rate (2.86 KD%) or submission danger (0.8 attempts per 15 minutes) to finish this fight quickly wherever it goes.

Ateba Gautier ($22)

I wrote last month about the "pay-per-view prop-up" for Jacobe Smith. Here's UFC 318's. Ateba Gautier has shown slick striking skills to post a +2.83 striking success rate (SSR) and two knockouts inside 10 minutes during his pair of UFC-affiliated appearances so far. Robert Valentin, the Ultimate Fighter 32 runner-up, has had a non-competitive UFC tenure that's seen him blown out in both starts, and he also lost to Ibo Aslan (2-1 UFC) via KO on the regional scene.

Islam Dulatov ($21)

The UFC debut of Islam Dulatov has been one fans have clamored for since his vicious elbow knockout on Dana White's Contender Series last fall. The German fighter has won 11 bouts in a row by stoppage. Betting on him at -600 odds might be unwise, but this is the type of format to take a chance when the pedestrian start for Adam Fugitt (1-2 UFC) has only included wins over welterweights that are 1-3 in UFC against all others. Fugitt's striking (51%) and takedown (50%) defense have both been mediocre.

Carli Judice ($18)

We love early finishes in DFS, but "Crispy" Carli Judice is proving to be a fighter that might score better without the stoppage. She's still sitting at 11.18 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes despite 31:40 in octagon time thus far. She did just flatten Yuneisy Dubin in her UFC debut for 122.2 FanDuel points (FDP), and she'll look to do the same to Nicolle Caliari, who posted a -28 striking differential in a lackluster debut against Ernesta Kareckaite.

Jimmy Crute ($17)

This matchup is just what "The Brute" Crute needs to get back on track. Marcin Prachnio's 53% takedown D is awful, and he's been submitted by anyone who has averaged north of 0.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Crute (1.6) certainly qualifies. I've modeled Crute as 57.2% likely to win this fight via early stoppage, and the plentiful amount of heavier -- but shakier -- favorites above him make his salary quite palatable.

Value Plays to Target

Dustin Poirier ($15)

The main event should be an overwhelming net positive in fantasy even if, in my UFC 318 best bets, I'm actually leaning toward an early stoppage. If we get one, I've got Poirier (38.9%) significantly more likely than Max Holloway (24.5%) to find it. Both are fantasy studs averaging north of 4.1 FDP per minute (excl. bonuses) for as long as this bout lasts, but I have to lean toward the hometown guy at a lower salary.

Lukasz Brzeski ($13)

The "floor" is virtually non-existent for "The Bull" Brzeski, who has lost via first-round (T)KO in three of his last four fights. Ryan Spann (2.10% KD) can certainly deliver another. However, if Brzeski survives the early onslaught, his chances to win rise considerably with a +1.34 SSR to Spann's -1.01. He's also never been submitted as a pro in 16 fights. I find it curious that he's the fifth-shortest underdog on the card despite a 1-5 UFC record that, likely, is attracting obvious attention behind Spann from the public.

Marvin Vettori ($12)

If there was a matchup designed to topple Brendan Allen, it might be this one. Vettori's 69% takedown D has been pretty tough to track, and he's never been finished as a pro. Striking should favor him well when he attempts 3.17 more significant strikes per minute, and his expected land rate (50.5%) is better just using these two's historical averages for striking accuracy and defense. I'd favor him outright, and my model (42.8% win probability) does see value compared to his moneyline.

Paulo Costa ($12)

Paulo Costa's four UFC losses are all to current top-10 middleweights. Talk about a brutal strength of schedule. I tend to give his shaky analytics a pass compared to Roman Kopylov, who has posted a -15 striking differential or worse against two consecutive non-ranked opponents. Don't write off the Brazilian for a submission in this spot when Kopylov has looked particularly inept defending them; two of his three UFC losses have come via sub.

Daniel Rodriguez ($11)

You'd think Kevin Holland was a title challenger given these betting odds, but Holland is still just 4-3 at welterweight with one win coming by split decision. There's a path for D-Rod to pull an upset here. Rodriguez (+2.00 SSR) is a more efficient striker than Holland (+1.13) with better volume, and "Trailblazer" has shown he's willing to stand even with a grappling path of least resistance before. Rodriguez just finished Santiago Ponzinibbio than Holland did in 2023. Are these two really that far apart in skill?

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.