UFC 317 Best Bets and Props: Topuria vs. Oliveira

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday as part of International Fight Week.

UFC 317 Betting Picks

Terrance McKinney vs. Viacheslav Borshchev

McKinney to Win (-176)

I'm surprised to see the Viacheslav Borshchev love to keep this line as close as it is. UFC matchmakers definitely cooked here, though.

Borshchev's a talented kickboxer, but he's really struggled to craft a UFC identity with a +0.48 striking success rate (SSR) and a solid-but-unspectacular knockdown rate (0.95% KD). His real issue? A 43% takedown defense that's seen him floored an average of 3.33 times per fight.

Terrance McKinney is a great wrestler, averaging 8.97 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and landing a decent clip of them (36%). With the right approach, "T-Wrecks" could salt away a pretty easy victory, but he rarely takes one. All 23 of McKinney's pro fights have ended inside the distance, and his 1.56% KD has put three of his last four opponents away.

I don't think I've ever produced a model result quite like this. I've got McKinney 71.4% likely to win this fight (-250 implied), and it comes inside the distance 67.0% of the time.

T-Wrecks most likely finishes this fight in victory, but Borshchev's gone the distance in five of his last seven while prioritizing safety on the ground. McKinney's first career decision here isn't crazy, making the moneyline the best bet.

Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano

Moicano by (T)KO or Points (+170)

Will this be easy money? "Money" is all about easy money.

That's, of course, Renato Moicano's infamous nickname, and Moicano will exit a failed, chaotic, last-second title opportunity with Islam Makhachev to re-rack it with his original UFC 311 opponent: Beneil Dariush.

That market came off the board around -165 on Friday before the event, yet Moicano's moneyline has dropped to -120 for the rematch. I'm not sure why when Makhachev has run through just about any UFC opponent ever.

Dariush has yet to survive five minutes in consecutive (T)KO losses to Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan. As a distant 'dog, I'd be fine to accept some chin ambiguity. In a pick 'em, it's a real concern.

Both fighters have a takedown D north of 70% and are well-practiced black belts in jiu-jitsu. This fight could have a striking flavor to it, and Moicano (4.36) outlands Dariush (3.78) in significant strikes per minute by a decent margin.

I've got Moicano 55.6% likely (-125 implied) to win this fight, but his submission prop is +320. I've got it at +1105. Shaving that off, I think I get immense value in a striking-based win condition.

Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van

Royval to Win (+104)
Royval Wins Inside the Distance (+370)

Man, if I took Bruno Silva against Joshua Van last month, I'm really in a box to back a top-five flyweight in the world against him, no?

Not really, I'm just letting my model do the work here to avoid bias. That's why it's good to have one.

Van scored three knockdowns and a third-round knockout of an increasingly chinny Silva in Newark, but "Raw Dawg" Royval will pack a different bite. I'm not sure anyone's counting him out in any realm after a +33 striking differential against Brandon Moreno in Mexico was followed by an unbelievable showing of endurance and scrambling to thwart Tatsuro Taira (6-1 UFC) with a +82 differential.

The difference for Van here is that he's the smaller fighter. He's ceding four inches of height and three inches of reach after towering over Silva, who was also 35. Royval, 32, is closer to his prime.

Based on level of competition and submission upside, I've got Royval 51.3% likely to win this fight.

Royval's tools to finish fights, such as a 0.56 KD% and 1.2 sub attempts per 15 minutes, also forecast an early stoppage in his favor 25.7% of the time (+290 implied).

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France

Kara-France to Win (+194)
Kara-France by KO/TKO (+500)

I called both upsets at UFC 315 before heavy favorites rolled at UFC 316. I'm turning back to one 'dog this weekend.

Stylistically, I find Kai Kara-France to be the most interesting matchup for Alexandre Pantoja in the top five. Kara-France's best traits are an unusually high 1.19% KD for this flyweight division and some of the sport's best pound-for-pound takedown defense (88%).

Pantoja has relied exclusively on his grappling and durability to win this belt four times, but we know his 50% striking defense is an issue. Brandon Moreno, Brandon Royval, and an overwhelmed debutant in Kai Asakura didn't have the power to take advantage of it, but Kara-France -- with (T)KOs in four of his last six fights -- does.

Things could get extremely hairy for the Kiwi if Pantoja can find his back, but there was no doubting my model's angle in this fight. I actually see a bit of value on the fight to go the distance (56.8%), which theoretically could favor the striker over the empty control of Pantoja.

However, KKF's knockout equity is vastly underrated by the market. I've got Kara-France's decision (22.0%) and knockout (16.1%) much closer than FanDuel does, leaving value on what I anecdotally see as the underdog's clearest path to victory.

Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira

Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 (-154)
Topuria Wins in Round 1 or 2 (-114)
Topuria by Submission in Round 1 or 2 (+1000)

This betting line is ridiculous, but I don't really want to bet Charles Oliveira when believing Ilia Topuria wins comfortably. Welcome to the state of modern UFC betting.

This is a good roundabout way to bet this bout, which is now for the vacant lightweight title as the aforementioned Makhachev heads to 170 pounds. Topuria, the former 145-pound champion, is a gigantic favorite on the basis of quick, decisive knockouts of featherweight GOAT candidates Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway -- both of whom have had some success at 155.

I buy that. "El Matador" has a clean +0.85 SSR with a gigantic 1.56 KD%, and Oliveira's 49% striking D is always a problem. Charles has been dropped in three of his last six fights and was submitted by Makhachev. Don't sleep on Topuria, averaging 1.1 submission attempts per 15 minutes, in that realm.

However, "Do Bronx" is a warrior that'll typically go out on his shield. Oliveira hasn't seen the third round in 14 of his last 19 fights -- a trend that might be lost on the general public after two straight bizarre, violent decisions.

Topuria, interestingly, was also knocked down in his only career start at 155 against Jai Herbert (3-5-1 UFC) in 2022. Herbert is a pedestrian lightweight, so is the 5'7" fighter too small for this weight class?

My best bet in this one is violence. I've got this fight 79.2% likely to end before Round 4 compared to FanDuel's 73.7% implied odds.

Of course, Topuria as the younger fighter with less attrition should be favored to win the brawl, which is how you get this second bet from a Same Game Parlay combining Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 (-154) and Topuria Moneyline (-430). I'll sprinkle it slightly outside value range.

Topuria is the cheeky type of showman that would probably love to sub UFC's all-time leader in submission wins (16), so it's worth noting I have the Georgian at 18.1% likely (+452 implied) to submit Do Bronx. Don't be surprised if Ilia hops on the neck of the former champion to make a point.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.