UFC 315 Best Bets and Props: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena, taking place at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec on Saturday.

UFC 315 Betting Picks

Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Bruno Silva

Barriault by Points (+270)

This is an excellent bounce-back opportunity for "The Powerbar".

It's a bit surprising to see "Blindado" Bruno Silva back in the cage after whispers of retirement, but financial freedom isn't a luxury for these veterans on the fringe of the UFC roster. Even fighting demons in his last bout, the Brazilian avoided a (T)KO in his 35th pro fight, which is why the decision prop for Marc-Andre Barriault is so appealing.

Barriault and Silva both average fewer than 0.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and in a striking battle, the Canadian's +0.40 striking success rate (SSR) towers over Silva's -1.43. In contrast to identical 47% striking accuracies, MAB's striking defense (52%) is 11 percentage points higher than Silva's.

I've got Barriault near his moneyline at 59.8% likely to win this bout, but Blindado's legendary durability opens the door to a decision prop that I have at 43.8% -- or +128 implied.

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba

Cutelaba to Win (-120)

If there's any fight on the card that could take a variety of twists and turns, it's Ion Cutelaba's bout with Modestas Bukauskas.

Once a reckless brawler, Cutelaba went the distance in a pair of fights before his first career submission win last time out against Ibo Aslan (2-1 UFC). He's shown new wrinkles, but the same can be said for Bukauskas coming off his first two career finishes.

Ultimately, "The Hulk" brings what Bukauskas hasn't seen in either recent bout: wrestling. Cutelaba averages a hearty 4.17 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid accuracy (52%) against "The Baltic Gladiator", whose 71% takedown D has come facing just 14 career attempts.

Landing nearly a significant strike more per minute, Cutelaba is the more active striker with grappling upside. I've got him 56.3% likely to win this closely lined bout.

Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Andrade to Win (+250)

I feel like I've failed this "if she can stay on her feet" puzzle about 50 times in the women's divisions in 2025, but here goes a 51st attempt.

Jessica Andrade has always shined favorably in my model, and I think some really desperate appearances have tainted fight fans' opinions of the former 115-pound champ. On the stat sheet, she still pairs a +0.93 SSR with 4.13 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. Her takedown accuracy (54%) and defense (72%) are both well above the flyweight average.

The problem? She's been fighting at a championship level to amass a 2-4 record in her last six -- all losses coming to top-five contenders. However, Jasmine Jasudavicius isn't one.

Jas is in the exact opposite position, winning five in a row outside the rankings before handing an aging Mayra Bueno Silva her third straight L. It's interesting that Canadian favorite's calling card is wrestling, yet her takedown accuracy (44%) is worse than Andrade's against lesser competition.

Though the Brazilian is at a six-inch height and reach disadvantage, the better pound-for-pound fighter at +250 is too tempting. My model intentionally doesn't adjust for such bias-creating discrepancies that have no corollary impact on winning, which is why it thinks Andrade emerges victorious 45.6% of the time.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot

Shevchenko by Points or Submission (+135)

I fully expected to be on Manon Fiorot before diving into this weekend, but that's why price and research both matter.

You might be as surprised as I was to lean Fiorot (35) isn't that much younger than Valentina Shevchenko (37) despite just seven total UFC appearances. To the credit of "The Beast", six have come inside the rankings, and her +2.49 SSR inside of all seven fights has been flatly dominant.

Moreover, Fiorot's 93% takedown D has been almost perfect to this point. However, we've seen for nearly a decade than there's the rest of flyweight, and then, there's "Bullet" Shevchenko.

Valentina masterfully landed eight takedowns to reclaim this title last September, and I don't want to write her off from doing the same to Fiorot. She's the first 125-pound woman that Fiorot has faced landing north of 2.00 takedowns per 15, and it's come with remarkable efficiency.

Quietly, Shevchenko's also won the distance striking differential in 12 straight fights, losing last to Amanda Nunes in 2017. Her getting blown out at distance by Fiorot would be truly shocking.

As a result, my model's expecting a close, gritty fight that goes the distance. I've got Shevchenko a tiny favorite (50.7%) to win a bout that goes the distance 83.5% of the time. The best bet at the current line is her decision or submission "double chance" prop, which I've got at 46.1% (+117 implied).

Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena to Win (+152)
Della Maddalena by KO/TKO (+280)

If you've got a predictive sports model, you sometimes ask why it does things to you. This fight's verdict is unnerving.

I fully understand it, though. While Belal Muhammad's underdog story cashed for us last July, another subsequent, uncompetitive wrestling loss by Leon Edwards since the fight doesn't instill maximum confidence that Belal is here to stay.

Muhammad's well-rounded hustle is admirable, but his +0.91 SSR comes with 0% knockdown rate (KD%). He's never dropped anyone in his UFC tenure. He's also only posted three submission attempts total in 19 career fights. There's just not much "special".

That's why the model is betting on Jack Della Maddalena's "special". The boxer's +2.47 SSR is accompanied by a 1.27 KD%, including a knee that finished Gilbert Burns in his last bout. Burns went the full distance -- comfortably -- with Belal. Don't discount the Aussie's grappling chops, either.

Posting Della Maddalena as 55.2% likely to win is an insane result relative to the betting line, but it wouldn't be the first time the betting public fell victim to recency bias. I've also got JDM as 32.1% likely to pick up his sixth finish in nine appearances via knockout.

Get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on any UFC 315 parlay or SGP taking place on May 10th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.