UFC 314 DFS Picks: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes, taking place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida on Saturday.

UFC 314 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Marco Tulio ($21)

Brazil's Chute Boxe gym has put several smaller fighters in UFC, but middleweight Marco Tulio with a similar skillset is terrifying. Tulio's quick knockout of Ihor Potieria in January led to this date with Tresean Gore, who has used a pair of submissions to escape a card-worst -2.88 striking success rate (SSR) thus far. Landing 5.02 significant strikes per minute, Tulio is -180 to add another finish to his ledger in South Beach.

Jean Silva ($20)

One of UFC's fastest rising stars in any division is "Lord" Jean Silva. Silva has a phenomenal 1.84% knockdown rate and has piled up four straight (T)KOs. His 80% takedown D is solid and will be crucial in this bout with grappler Bryce Mitchell. However, it appears UFC is sending Mitchell to pasture after controversial comments earlier this year. He's not far removed from one of the scariest knockout losses in UFC history.

Alexander Volkanovski ($19)

As mentioned in my UFC 314 best bets, I think Alexander Volkanovski emerges from a closely lined main event. Volkanovski enters off consecutive knockout losses, but Diego Lopes' power might be a touch overrated after consecutive fights going the distance, and Volk's +2.72 SSR is even better when you realize it's come through nine straight title fights. Lopes (+0.09) can't keep up if this fight is prolonged.

Michal Oleksiejczuk ($19)

Sedriques Dumas' lack of submission skills makes it hard to see him replicating the submission losses that typically plagued Michal Oleksiejczuk. "Hussar" has scored a first-round knockout in each of his last three wins, and Dumas has struggled to make any sort of imprint despite facing fighters a combined 12-17 in UFC thus far. There's a huge experience gap when Oleksiejczuk has faced nine fighters who were once ranked with the promotion to Dumas' zero.

Paddy Pimblett ($17)

I've modeled Paddy Pimblett at 62.9% likely to win the five-round co-main event against Michael Chandler. I'm not doubting the 30-year-old's evolving skillset when we've seen Chandler both knocked out and submitted in UFC, and the underdog is now 38. This fight is -550 to not go the distance, so the winner will likely make plenty of noise in DFS.

Value Plays to Target

Nora Cornolle ($16)

I didn't expect to see a -172 favorite in the bargain bin, but it's likely because Nora Cornolle's fight is -196 to go the distance. I'm not sure. One of her two wins came via a second-round finish, and her +1.23 SSR is a mammoth advantage over an inexperienced Hailey Cowan, who lost to a flyweight in her debut. If the Frenchwoman's takedown defense holds, she should win this fight fairly convincingly.

Yan Xiaonan ($14)

It's 'dog or pass in DFS for the ranked strawweight prelim between Virna Jandiroba and Yan Xiaonan. It's -168 to go the distance. Despite two straight decision wins in grappling-heavy matchups against Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci, Xiaonan is an underdog again despite an obvious path to win. If she can stuff takedowns, Jandiroba's -0.63 SSR is not good enough to hang. Yan has stuffed 14 of the last 23 takedown attempts she's faced.

Dan Ige ($14)

Sign me up for Dan Ige in a fight where his 57% takedown D won't be an issue. Ige will ceded seven inches of reach to Sean Woodson, but I'm not entirely sure Woodson is ready for the rankings yet. His four-fight streak has come over unranked opponents just 26-25-1 with the promotion, and "50K" has won his last nine fights outside the rankings. I think the underdog edges out the win at distance with more impactful punches.

Dominick Reyes ($12)

Nikita Krylov's striking (44%) and takedown (53%) defense are both really poor when Dominick Reyes has found his groove again. He's topped 135 FanDuel points (FDP) in consecutive wins, and if he can extend the streak to three, this fight is -205 to not go the distance. I've got Reyes 44.4% likely to win this fight that seems closer than the odds indicate.

Darren Elkins ($9)

Goodness gracious. What is this line? Julian Erosa has been stopped 6 times in 15 UFC starts. 40-year-old Darren Elkins isn't a power-puncher, but his hallmark durability towers over the favorite's, and this fight being fairly short to go the distance (+112) really benefits him as a slow starter that builds behind 8.41 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. I've modeled Elkins as 41.1% likely to win outright as a +270 'dog.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.