UFC 314 Best Bets and Predictions: Volkanovski vs. Lopes

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes, taking place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida on Saturday.

UFC 314 Betting Picks

Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa

Elkins to Win (+270)

This betting line is insanity given Julian Erosa's historical fragility.

While 40-year-old Darren Elkins isn't a super imposing opponent, Erosa has six UFC losses by early finish -- with four coming in the first round. He absorbs 6.31 significant strikes per minute with poor striking D (48%) and struggles defending takedowns (58%).

Elkins figures to be the proverbial "tortoise" to the favorite's "hare" as he often is. Each of his five wins since the COVID break have come past the 8.5-minute mark. He outpaces foes with 8.41 takedown attempts per 15 and lands enough of those (34%) to rack up control time.

"The Damage" has just 3 first-round losses in 29 UFC appearances with hallmark durability. I've got him modeled 41.1% likely to win this fight with enough equity in a decision (25.0%), submission (8.7%) and knockout (7.4%) to stick to an enticing moneyline.

Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson

Ige to Win (+142)
Ige by Points (+390)

Featherweight strikers Dan Ige and Sean Woodson both have to love this matchup without much wrestling.

"50K" Ige's 57% takedown D is often the culprit when he loses, but Woodson has only attempted 1.02 takedowns per 15 minutes -- and most of those came against lower-level foes. On the other side, "The Sniper" Woodson has to love a seven-inch reach edge in a fight that will be decided on the feet.

I'm just skeptical if Sean's four-fight winning streak translates to the rankings. Those opponents have just a 26-25-2 combined UFC record, and none of them have ever been ranked in the division. Ige has won his last nine starts outside the rankings dating all the way back to 2018.

Training at one of the best gyms in the sport at Xtreme Couture, I'm sure coach Eric Nicksick has cooked up a leg-kick package for the Hawaiian. I've got Ige 44.4% likely to win this fight overall and 32.6% likely to win it by decision, which this fight is a lofty -230 to reach.

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes

Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 (-112)
Reyes to Win in Round 1 or 2 (+430)

Ironically enough since the performance of his life, Dominick Reyes hasn't seen the third round in five straight appearances. Nikita Krylov isn't the foe to buck that trend.

"The Devastator" Reyes has a 1.11% knockdown rate that was on full display in a two-round battering of Anthony Smith last time out. He also dropped Dustin Jacoby twice in June 2024. We've seen very limited grappling opportunities with him, but an 82% takedown D should make Krylov's life tougher.

With that the case, Krylov's 44% striking D is extremely vulnerable, but he's got a 1.00% knockdown rate himself when thinking of Reyes' three (T)KO losses since the start of 2024. The Ukranian really shines on the mat, though. He's got five UFC wins via submission and averages 1.4 sub attempts per 15 minutes.

I've got this fight 68.5% likely to not see its full distance, so this play on Reyes failing to see the third makes plenty of sense.

Dom is undervalued to win it, too. I've got him winning by early stoppage 25.6% of the time.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Michael Chandler

Pimblett to Win (-154)

This lightweight co-main is a tough one to visualize. What does an improving Paddy Pimblett have in store for us?

"Paddy the Baddy" is coming off the best performance of his career last July: a first-round submission of King Green. He earned a ranking with that effort and battles for the first time inside the top 15 against 38-year-old Michael Chandler. I just can't help but see Pimblett winning everywhere.

At distance, Pimblett's +1.19 striking success rate (SSR) smashes Chandler's (+0.19) even when accounting for level of competition. "Iron" Mike has needed quick knockouts in both victories as part of a 2-4 UFC record, and Pimblett has never been professionally stopped despite a poor striking D (40%).

Chandler has been submitted, though, and that's Pimblett's forté (2.4 submission attempts per 15). Paddy's 0.82% knockdown rate is probably underrated with a huge size edge in this fight, as well.

I've got Pimblett winning 62.9% of the time (-170 implied) in this five-round co-main event. In his prime, it feels like the budding U.K. sensation got a light draw in the form of the aging veteran.

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Volkanovski to Win in Round 4, 5, or by Decision (+150)

Diego Lopes is built to be a fan favorite. His meteoric rise has been strategic by UFC, but there's no hiding with the 145-pound title on the line.

I mentioned "the early bonk" theory last week with Pat Sabatini and was right. It's a red cloth to the eyes of a bull that is the UFC betting public. Alexander Volkanovski, like Sabatini, has been knocked out in recent fights, so there's this assumption it's going to keep happening. Bettors can't see any other outcome mentally.

I've got Lopes 25.7% to find an early (T)KO of the former champ, but it gets pretty ugly for Diego if he doesn't. Volkanovski's +2.72 SSR has been accrued amidst nine consecutive UFC title fights, and his Lopes' inability to wrestle (0.50 takedowns landed per 15) should keep this one at distance barring a slip or stumble. Even then, Volk has never been submitted as a pro.

The extremely muscular Lopes also has a tendency to slow down entering his first five-round appearance. Volk has gone the full distance five times. That will favor "Alexander The Great" late.

My model only has Volkanovski 53.7% likely to win, but this number covers the vast majority of his win equity when I've got his decision as the most likely outcome in the fight (42.0%). Personally, I trust the former champion's elite striking defense (58%) to weather a storm he knows is coming when the last two knockout losses were unexpected in the heat of combat.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.