UFC 313 DFS Picks: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC 313 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Mauricio Ruffy ($21)

It's sort of crazy that Mauricio Ruffy, despite a knockdown and clear decision win, is in a "buy-low" spot opposite 38-year-old King Green this weekend. Ruffy's striking accuracy (59%) and defense (60%) are still phenomenal in just under seven full rounds in the octagon, and the "Fighting Nerds" phenom could be meeting Green's fading durability at the exact right moment.

Curtis Blaydes ($20)

Rizvan Kuniev's sweaty 15-minute decision over former PFL heavyweight champion Renan Ferreira was immediately followed with a hefty drug suspension. Now signing to debut in UFC, Kuniev draws a top-five heavyweight? This seems like a setup spot for Dana White to use Curtis Blaydes' powerful wrestling (5.69 takedowns per 15 minutes) as a means to show UFC's superiority to their top competitor.

Josh Van ($19)

This matchup is tailor-made for Josh Van. His 80% takedown D presents arguably the best anti-wrestling tools at 125 pounds, and Rei Tsuruya struggled with just 37% takedown accuracy in his debut. If the Japanese underdog is force to strike with "The Fearless", don't discount Van from finding a late (T)KO.

Djorden Santos ($19)

I believed in Djorden Santos on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS), but not many did as a +300 underdog. His +2.94 striking success rate (SSR) on the show was elite, and he thwarted 13 of 15 takedown advances. In a striking match, Ozzy Diaz's -2.53 SSR seems significantly outmatched against the debutant.

Alex Pereira ($18)

The betting line in the five-round main event is close, but I prefer Alex Pereira to win it. Pereira's takedown defense (70%) has held well when Ankalaev -- untrue to his roots from Dagestan -- averages just 0.91 mat returns per 15 minutes. Ankalaev also hasn't attempted a submission in 14 UFC fights. Look for "Poatan" to chop at Ankalaev's lead leg early and often.

Value Plays to Target

Jalin Turner ($15)

As I mentioned in my UFC 313 best bets, Ignacio Bahamondes' better recent record is more about level of competition than skill. Despite losing to ranked opponents recently, Jalin Turner has nearly twice as high a knockdown rate (1.51%) and attempts subs nearly three times more often (1.1 per 15 minutes) than Bahamondes. "The Tarantula" can stop any unranked opponent anywhere.

Brunno Ferreira ($14)

"The Hulk" smashes most of his opponents. Brunno Ferreira has dropped four of his six UFC-affiliated foes, amassing a 3.54% knockdown rate. Armen Petrosyan was just stopped in his last fight, and Petrosyan's 31% takedown D might actually be more of an issue opposite the black belt. Ferreira has plenty of ways to win this fight in fantasy-relevant fashion.

Justin Gaethje ($13)

In March 2023, Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev fought a closely contested decision. I'm not sure what's changed. Both still have sub-0.70% knockdown rates and enter with at least a 60% rate of finishing three rounds in their last five fights. I've modeled Gaethje 53.4% likely to win a fight -- as a 'dog -- that I believe goes the full distance.

Francis Marshall ($10)

Mairon Santos mowed through non-UFC-level competition to win the promotion's reality show, The Ultimate Fighter. It's still ridiculous to make him a -320 favorite over Francis Marshall, who is 3-2 in five UFC-affiliated starts. Marshall (2.68 takedowns landed per 15 minutes) has this fight's grappling upside and hasn't been dropped in UFC, so he'll likely be around for a full fight here at worst.

Get a 50% Profit Boost Token to use on any UFC 313 wager taking place on March 8th! You can then share your betslip on X to enter our Bussin’ With The Boys Giveaway! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.