UFC 313 Best Bets and Predictions: Pereira vs. Ankalaev

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.

UFC 313 Betting Picks

Brunno Ferreira vs. Armen Petrosyan

Ferreira to Win (+116)

My model's criteria of a minimum of 5 fights or 40 minutes in the octagon is most tested with fighters like Brunno Ferreira.

Ferreira's at just 30:05 in fight time across five bouts, and all have ended early. He's usually the one doing it, though. "The Hulk" has a gargantuan 3.54% knockdown rate, and I'm not sure we've seen the best of the black belt's submission skills in 0.5 attempts per 15 minutes.

I'm surprised to see him an underdog to Armen Petrosyan simply because of how few paths Petrosyan has to victory. His knockdown rate (0.21%) is almost non-existent, so he relies on a +2.59 striking success rate (SSR) from the outside to chop away with leg kicks and win at distance. It just rarely stays at distance, per an awful 31% takedown D.

Ferreira has grappling upside here, and he's the significantly more powerful fighter on the feet. I wasn't surprised to model him 60.1% likely to win this fight. I'd watch out for Ferreira's first grounded finish here.

Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo by Points (+130)

My model is out on Iasmin Lucindo's moneyline, but that's because the market is overrating her chances of finishing Amanda Lemos.

At 37, Lemos hasn't shown truly substantial concerns of decline. Recent setbacks to Virna Jandiroba and Zhang Weili came to the top-two fighters in the division, and her unusual submission loss to Jessica Andrade appears to have been a fluke. Overall, Lemos' 1.63% knockdown rate and rate of 0.8 sub attempts per 15 minutes are why she is actually a -146 favorite in the "decision no action" market.

Lucindo is simply the better bet to win minutes here, though. Her 66% striking D has passed as elite through two straight former title contenders, and she's landed 2.40 takedowns per 15 minutes with sublime accuracy (57%). Lemos' one true flaw is a shaky 61% takedown D.

Even having Lucindo just 53.8% likely to win overall, I'm showing her 44.4% likely to win this fight by decision. You can take her points prop down to +125, and I'd shop this number.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev

Fight Goes the Distance (+106)
Gaethje by Points (+380)

When Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev met in March 2023, Gaethje won a tight decision as an underdog. Is it insane to expect a repeat performance?

"The Highlight" Gaethje is still only 36 years old to Fiziev's 32. With additional tread off the tires from all-out wars with Dustin Poirier (win by knockout) and Max Holloway (loss by knockout), Gaethje's still managed better striking accuracy (59%) and defense (52%) than "Ataman".

While both are strikers with wins at lower levels by (T)KO, they're just not overly powerful lightweights. Gaethje needed a highlight kick to finish Poirier but otherwise has a 0.62% knockdown rate. Fiziev's (0.39%) is even lower with his last knockdown scored in July 2022.

Excluding the fight where he tore his ACL, Fiziev's seen the end of Round 3 in three of his last four. Gaethje's seen at least 15 minutes in three of his last five. I've got this fight 62.2% likely to see its full distance. It shouldn't be plus money.

I'll sprinkle the underdog's decision prop when I've actually got Gaethje winning via decision (34.1%) a higher percentage of the time than Fiziev (28.1%). The total is a better play in case Gaethje has lost a step.

Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev

Pereira to Win (-115)

Alex Pereira's entire UFC career feels like a fever dream.

The one-dimensional kickboxer has now knocked out six former champions in his last eight fights, buying him time to actually round out his MMA skillset. He's proven no one in this division can stand opposite his +2.02 SSR, and Magomed Ankalaev (+1.27 SSR) isn't even the strongest candidate to do so.

Will Ankalaev, a native of the wrestling capital of the world in Dagestan, be able to drag "Poatan" to the mat?

I'm not extremely optimistic. Ankalaev's only attempted 2.97 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed a mediocre clip (31%) of them. It's not his strongest skill, and Pereira's 70% takedown D -- at least at the entry level -- has been fine.

Of course, Poatan is training with Glover Teixeira, a former 205-pound champ that worked as a wizard on the mat. Making Ankalaev uncomfortably wrestle could fatigue him over the course of the fight, and Ankalaev's weakness at distance -- defending leg kicks -- is Pereira's signature ability.

It's possible Magomed is a better wrestler than his analytics state, but Pereira's distance skillset at -115 is tremendous. I've got him 57.0% likely (-135 implied) to prevail with enough equity in a knockout (35.9%), decision (19.0%), and submission (2.1%) to stick to the moneyline.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.