UFC 312 Best Bets: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

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Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2, taking place at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia on Saturday.

UFC 312 Betting Picks

Gabriel Santos vs. Jack Jenkins

Jenkins to Win (+186)
Jenkins by Points (+390)

Dana White called Jack Jenkins a one-trick pony, and he's responded with three wins in four tries -- with the only exception coming via injury.

"Phar" is undervalued to get his hand raised in his home country. The Victoria native's analytical profile is flowing through a 60% striking accuracy, 61% striking defense, 69% takedowns accuracy, and 76% takedown defense. That's all wrapped into a +1.91 striking success rate (SSR) despite facing three straight multi-time UFC winners.

Meanwhile, Gabriel Santos has only gotten his hand raised in the big show opposite Yizha (0-2 UFC), a completely unproved prospect from Road to UFC. Santos' -0.08 SSR has come with poor striking defense (47%) -- albeit with a takedown D (85%) to thwart Jenkins' best weapon.

Personally, this is a coinflip fight with an extremely durable underdog against a favorite who has found a way to lose two winnable fights before the Yizha scrap. This should be a pick 'em at worst.

Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Crute to Win (+134)
Crute Wins Inside the Distance (+390)
Crute by Submission (+1200)

It's good to see "The Brute" back in action after a brief retirement that probably stemmed from frustration.

Jimmy Crute soared into 205-pound's rankings after a 5-1 UFC start, but injuring his leg against Anthony Smith inside them was the beginning of the end. Future champ Jamahal Hill knocked him out cold before a disappointing two-part series with Alonzo Menifield: a draw and second-round loss via submission.

I'm still extremely high on the 28-year-old's grappling. He's posted 4.84 takedowns and 2.0 submissions per 15 minutes in a division without many players in the space.

Outside the rankings, Rodolfo Bellato is quite the step down. Bellato snuck by Ihor Potieria (2-6 UFC) with a +7 striking differential in his debut and was nearly knocked out in the bout himself. I don't trust any of Bellato's low-level metrics to believe he has the power to put out Crute.

Though unable to model the small sample of "Trator", I'd anecdotally favor Crute -- in his home country -- on the basis of experience, strength of victory, and grappling upside.

He's won all five times via a finish on the ground, so +1200 odds on the sub are great given that tendency. It's insane Bellato's submission odds (+500) are so much lower with one empty attempt thus far.

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez

Weili to Win After Round 3 (+183)

The market dictated my action here, and I love fading UFC steam. CLV is often a fool's errand in this sport.

Zhang Weili has defended this strawweight belt three times in dominant, violent fashion, and this is her seventh title fight. Underdog odds opposite a talented -- yet physically unreliable -- Tatiana Suarez are flat disrespectful.

Suarez's elite wrestling (6.20 takedowns per 15 minutes on 61% accuracy) has bullied through her foes in a 7-0 start to her UFC career, but there's not one name on her resumé that also didn't let up multiple takedowns to someone else.

On paper, Weili's 50% takedown defense is a problem here, but she'll have an equal advantage at distance. Suarez has landed at least 15 significant distance strikes just once. This is also Tatiana's first five-round fight with a style that's extremely taxing to her stamina.

As modern judging favors striking over wrestling, I've modeled Weili 50.4% likely to win this fight, and I've got it 56.4% to go the full distance. This bet is from FanDuel's new UFC Same Game Parlay feature, combining two bets I showing a bit of value in the model: Weili Moneyline (+102) and Fight Starts Round 4 (-156).

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

Du Plessis Wins Inside the Distance (+190)

At the time of Dricus Du Plessis' first fight with Sean Strickland, I looked like a mad man modeling him at 66.2% likely to win. Now, his implied odds sit roughly there in the rematch.

The thing I got wrong about the fight was the total. I presumed it would end early, but the two really went 25 minutes without any sort of danger for either combatant. That's just not the norm for "Stillknocks".

Du Plessis' 0.66% knockdown rate is just okay, but his submission volume (0.90 attempts per 15) led to the first and only pro loss for Israel Adesanya via sub in his last bout. He's finished six of his eight UFC wins for a reason.

Do I ever feel good about picking Strickland's solid striking (61%) or takedown (77%) defense to be finished? No, but Alex Pereira slept him clean on the rare punch that did find the chin, and at 33 years old, I don't feel amazing about Sean's inactivity and his last, underwhelming performance against Paulo Costa as a substantial favorite.

I've modeled Du Plessis 65.2% likely to win the rematch, so I'm slightly lower on him overall, but the market has entirely overreacted on his finishing potential. I've still got him winning inside the distance 46.8% of the time -- and a decision less often than Strickland. This fight seeing all 25 minutes is harmful to his win equity.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.