UFC 311 Best Bets: Makhachev vs. Moicano

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano, taking place at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California on Saturday.

UFC 311 Betting Picks

Karol Rosa vs. Ailin Perez

Perez to Win (+205)
Perez by Points (+290)

The first model-eligible fight on the card was this clash at women's 135, and it also returned its strongest verdict.

Karol Rosa has put out strong results in this division with two top-15 wins that should have been three if a +59 striking differential against Irene Aldana was any indication. However, this is her first matchup with a grappler in five fights, and her last effort didn't go well. She ceded four takedowns on six tries -- and 10:27 in control time -- to Sara McMann, who has since been cut.

Grappling is Ailin Perez's forte. The Argentinian attempts 10.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a good amount of them (51%), and the 30-year-old seems to be improving each fight. She scored her first win via finish in her last fight with Darya Zhelezniakova (1-1 UFC).

Rosa's grappling struggles just aren't front of mind when they last appeared in March 2022. My model has Perez favored to win this fight 57.3% of the time (-135 implied).

It also expects the bout to go the distance 80.0% of the time, inviting a play on her points prop (modeled at 44.5% likely).

Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira

Fight Doesn't Go the Distance (-112)

Is Grant Dawson a "finisher" now?

The Coconut Creek native took his name out of point-fighting accusations for at least one bout after he stopped Rafa Garcia (4-4 UFC) in the second round of his last bout. Overall, Dawson's 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes are prime to finish fights if improved ground-and-pound attacks like that come with it.

Then, there's the other aspect of Dawson to potential under bets. His 45% striking D was responsible for his only UFC loss: a 33-second knockout by Bobby Green.

Diego Ferreira is no stranger to finishes, either. 10 of his 15 UFC starts have ended inside the distance, including four in a row. At 40, Ferreira's own durability also isn't getting better.

I've modeled this fight as 54.6% likely to not go the distance. I'll pick Dawson to emerge from that with the win, but this is a better bet considering it also encompasses his historically unreliable chin.

Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill

Prochazka to Win After Round 1 (+190)
Fight Goes the Distance (+200)

I didn't know what to expect modeling this clash of former 205-pound champions, and it didn't return value -- until the public moved the line this weekend.

Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill are both coming off lopsided knockout losses to Alex Pereira. My wallet doesn't need the reminder. Hill's notion that he was more competitive before "getting caught" is true, but it also might not matter here.

In terms of striking success rate, Hill (+3.67 SSR) has Prochazka (-0.21) cleaned out, but both have a striking D at or below 46%. This is a defense-optional fight where both's power (sub-0.70% knockdown rate) isn't truly elite for the division. Jiri, owner of three UFC takedowns and a win via submission, also has all the grappling upside.

Is Jamahal the cleaner, technical striker? Perhaps, but he doesn't have a ranked win over anyone on the roster to Prochazka's three.

I can't agree with this week's steam on "Sweet Dreams" Hill; I've got Jiri a slight -110 favorite here between level of competition and the fact Hill hasn't even completed four octagon minutes since his Achilles surgery in 2023.

Showing value on both, this bet is a UFC Same Game Parlay of Prochazka Moneyline (+112) and Fight to Start Round 2 (-235). I've got this fight a slight favorite (55.2%) to go its full distance with such little punching power, so I'll add the total when I've modeled it Hill's most likely path to victory, as well.

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

Dvalishvili by Points (+340)

Merab Dvalishvili has won 11 straight fights and 14 of his last 16 rounds and is +225 to win a UFC fight in the same division? Okay.

Obviously, Umar Nurmagomedov's last name carries plenty of weight as to why, but Umar is even still my model's favorite to win here because of flawless analytics that carried through last August's win over a tremendous fighter, Cory Sandhagen. Nurmagomedov's striking accuracy (63%) and defense (63%) are insane, and he's landed exactly half of 7.96 takedown attempts per 15 minutes.

He's also never been taken down, which is a huge bonus against an elite wrestler like Merab.

We've seen Merab win fights without takedowns, though. He got zero against Jose Aldo and won unanimously with cage control. "The Machine" might be UFC's most fitting nickname with seemingly endless endurance that didn't allow Aldo, Petr Yan (10-4 UFC), or Sean O'Malley (11-2 UFC) to have an inch to breathe.

Umar might be more skilled as they all were, but unless he's matching Dvalishvili's strength or output as no one has this decade, he could get blanked offensively, as well.

I've got Nurmagomedov a -135 favorite to win this fight, but that leaves the betting value squarely on Merab. I've also got this one 75.7% likely to go the full distance as 14 of these two's 19 combined fights (73.7%) have.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.