UFC 306 Best Bets: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC, taking place at The Sphere in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday.

Riyadh Season Noche UFC Betting Picks

Irene Aldana vs. Norma Dumont

Dumont to Win (-105)

Norma Dumont was +108 to win this fight on Sunday, so the early birds got the worm. I still think she's the clear side over Irene Aldana in a title eliminator at women's 135.

"The Immortal" Dumont was questioned forever due to poor competition at 145 pounds, but since the disbanding of the division forced a move to 135, she's held up against two ranked opponents. Dumont's +1.22 striking success rate (SSR) is solid, and she's landed 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes with phenomenal accuracy (68%) despite still hunting for a first career submission attempt. Her lone loss in eight fights to Macy Chiasson (7-3 UFC) has aged like wine as Chiasson has rocketed into this division's top five.

That's been at the expense of fleeting contenders like Aldana. I've always been a bit lower on the one-dimensional boxer with a -1.09 SSR, and it's trending even worse as the 36-year-old ages. She's been outstruck by an average of 46.8 significant strikes in her last five fights and only survived a -59 differential against Karol Rosa last time out thanks to a poor judging decision.

With age, well-roundedness, and efficiency all in Dumont's corner at the expense of knockout danger and level of competition, I still believe she wins this fight 52.8% of the time. She's the side in a fight overwhelmingly likely to go to decision (81.7%), per the model.

Ronaldo Rodriguez vs. Ode Osbourne

Rodriguez by KO/TKO/Submission (+145)

Barely believing the opening line for Ronaldo Rodriguez, it's no surprise to me he steamed from -132 to -158 on Friday to win this fight with Ode Osbourne. On a card built around Mexican talent, the flyweight is the reason this fight opens the pay-per-view card.

"Lazy Boy" didn't prove he was a title contender to submit Denys Bondar (0-3 UFC) in the second round, and his striking accuracy (41%) and defense (47%) were a bit concerning in that fight. However, he showed all he should need to clear Osbourne in this second appearance.

Osbourne has decent power (0.97% knockdown rate), but he's an inefficient striker himself (-0.98 SSR) that has been stopped in three of his last four fights. The grappling issues for "The Jamaican Sensation" have gotten him submitted in each of the last two fights, and Rodriguez's skills on the mat showed to be exceptional against Bondar with three (!) reversals on takedowns and a submission. He also took 41 punches in 10 minutes without even a wobble.

Contextually, this main-card opener isn't to build up Osbourne, a 5-5 veteran trending downward. It appears to me that the UFC is looking to fruitfully deploy their exciting new jiu-jitsu ace, and his rate of submission attempts per 15 minutes (1.8) is right there with the average (2.5) of the last two foes to submit the underdog.

We'll take the double-chance prop to avoid a bad beat via TKO, though.

Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko

Grasso to Win (-130)

The trilogy between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko is perhaps the most peculiar in UFC history.

Fortune has greatly favored Grasso in each of the first two matchups. With a -28 striking differential into the fourth round of their first fight, Grasso pounced on a spinning kick gone wrong to get the former champion's back and submit her in a fight she was arguably down all three rounds. In the anticipated rematch, Grasso retained this title via split draw thanks to a rogue scorecard so poor that it was universally condemned.

Without it, the 36-year-old Shevchenko probably enters this trilogy -- which would have happened anyway -- with the belt around her waist. I'd argue it might just not matter as to who leaves this fight with the strap.

Shevchenko is undoubtedly declining with another year-long gap since the second Grasso bout. She was dropped by Alexa in that last fight and has surrendered a dangerous submission attempt in each. With reducing performance at distance, "Bullet" has resorted to wrestling, per 10 takedowns in her last 3 fights in a pivot of styles, but that's an even tougher ask to continue as she ages. She also provides minimal danger on the ground with her last win via submission coming in February 2018.

In each of the last two fights, Shevchenko was slightly better. My model is forecasting that to change in a third fight against the 31-year-old, though. I've got Grasso as 53.9% likely to win the trilogy behind improving striking and sneaky submission danger. That's slightly outside of value range here, but this should be the best version the flyweight champ yet.

Sean O'Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili

O'Malley to Win (-134)
O'Malley by Decision (+450)

This will be the toughest test thus far to see if "The Suga Show" rolls on.

Sean O'Malley is arguably UFC's most well-known star at present, cementing that status with a knockout of Aljamain Sterling to win this belt and a dominant decision win (+141 striking differential; best in 135-pound title fight history) over "Chito" Vera to keep it. O'Malley's +4.11 SSR trails only Tom Aspinall of ranked UFC fighters -- and the guy has been fighting title contenders.

This matchup with Merab Dvalishvili is intriguing because of Dvalishvili's gigantic takedown volume (17.86 attempted per 15 minutes) opposite O'Malley's 62% takedown D. In theory, that could be an issue for Sean to spend a lot of this fight on his back. However, Merab's attack is fairly one-dimensional with poor accuracy (41%) at striking distance, and he has minimal submission danger (0.3 attempts per 15) for a guy with a grappling-heavy approach.

Despite the on-paper issues, O'Malley easily defended both takedowns from Merab's teammate, Sterling, before knocking him out cold. It's quite easy to train for a one-dimensional challenge that is similar to the one both of these Serra-Longo teammates bring.

Dvalishvili was dropped just three fights ago, and O'Malley's unique power has put out 7 of his 10 UFC foes. Even with the wrestling danger known, my model has the younger, more well-rounded O'Malley as 61.5% likely to win Saturday's main event.

Also, 21.6% of the time (+365 implied), it sees the win coming via decision as the best value prop. Remember, Merab has never been knocked out in UFC with great recovery despite the drops.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.