UFC 305 Best Bets: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya, taking place at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia on Saturday.

UFC 305 Betting Picks

Josh Culibao vs. Ricardo Ramos

Ramos to Win (+122)

I'm just perplexed as to what Josh Culibao does extremely well to merit being a -150 favorite over a seven-time UFC winner.

Culibao landed a career high in significant strikes (87) in his last fight, but it left him fatigued enough to lose it. His -0.04 striking success rate (SSR) overall isn't impressive, and his takedown defense (67%) was another reason for his latest setback, allowing four mat returns on nine attempts from Danny Silva (1-0 UFC).

"Kuya" also has just one career submission attempt -- a basic rear-naked choke -- that happened to convert to a win. I don't see high-level submission upside for him here against jiu-jitsu black belt Ricardo Ramos just because that fate has befallen Ramos in consecutive fights.

Ramos' two consecutive submission losses came against Charles Jourdain and Julian Erosa. Those veterans have six combined wins via sub since the start of 2022. That's not Culibao, and I'd sooner trust Ricardo's excellent takedown volume (3.00 landed per 15 minutes) behind tremendous accuracy (60%) to replicate Silva's success.

Being able to model these two featherweight's extensive samples, I've got Culibao just 51.0% likely to win. Any plus money on the Brazilian underdog gets a thumbs up from my algorithm.

Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Tuivasa to Win (+186)
Fight Goes the Distance (+400)
Tuivasa by Points (+1000)

"Bam Bam" has been put into a spot where he can secure another signature "shooey" celebration in this one.

Tai Tuivasa is a hard moneyline bet on the surface after four consecutive losses, but Jairzinho Rozenstruik simply doesn't have the tools that have troubled him. Ciryl Gane's efficiency (+3.30 SSR) and Sergei Pavlovich's pace (5.86 significant strikes landed per minute) got the better of him at distance, but "Bigi Boy" has a +0.66 SSR and lands just 3.44 significant strikes per minute.

Rozenstruik has also never mustered a takedown or submission attempt in his 13-fight career -- much less landed one. We can safely cross of the submission danger that led to quick wins for Alexander Volkov and Marcin Tybura against Tuivasa.

In that event, Rozenstruik's knockdown rate (1.82%) is actually lower than Tuivasa's (2.10%), and the Aussie's 3.96 significant strikes landed per minute outpace the favorite. I actually see him as the better, more voluminous striker.

I've got Rozenstruik just 52.4% likely to win Saturday's slugfest, yet I'm also a little higher on this fight to go its full distance (33.6% likely) than FanDuel's +400 odds imply. Don't be surprised if a more calculated Tuivasa outpoints Bigi Boy, who is 0-2 in UFC decisions, on the scorecards.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Dan Hooker

Hooker to Win (+260)

Against fighters possessing Mateusz Gamrot's skillset, you'll know about 90 seconds into the fight if your bet is going to cash.

Gamrot is an elite chain wrestler, posting 14.67 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and converting a decent clip of them (36%) considering the volume. He'll wash out foes with poor takedown defense, but Gamrot also has minimal punching power (0.30% knockdown rate) or submission danger (0.10 attempts per 15 minutes), and he's been dropped four times in his last five fights, showing some lapses in durability.

The genesis of this fight is intriguing solely on the basis that New Zealand's Dan Hooker has an 80% takedown defense that's on a heater, stuffing 10 of his last 11. Hooker's incredible length (75" reach) for the division also makes for a sneaky submission threat (0.4 attempts per 15 minutes). He's already found a pair of guillotine chokes on his career against wrestlers, too.

In any prolonged standup, I significantly trust Hooker (+0.32 SSR) more than Gamrot (+0.02 SSR), yet this moneyline doesn't make much sense to me when this fight has to look one particular way for the favorite to win. He's won four of his last five via decision with the exception an early injury to his opponent.

I've still got Gamrot at 57.6% likely to win this fight because his style is both predictable and hard to beat. However, in many ways, Hooker has a lot of answers to the challenges "Gamer" provides. I endorse a bet on the Kiwi's moneyline when the model has his decision outcome most likely (26.9%). However, Gamrot's fleeting durability and ability to wrestle into another guillotine choke give me pause on accepting that method of victory.

Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

Du Plessis to Win (-106)
Du Plessis by KO/TKO/Submission (+190)

As a perpetual buyer of Dricus Du Plessis and seller of Israel Adesanya, this fight was made for me to bet. It's math more than bias.

I've yet to bet against the undefeated champion from South Africa, and it's paid off in all seven instances. Wins over Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker have affirmed that Du Plessis' well-rounded skillset is one of the best in the entire promotion. On the feet, he's amassed a +1.72 SSR with four wins by KO/TKO, and he's added 3.00 takedowns and 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

If there's an area I'm potentially worried about him, it's a 40% takedown defense. With Adesanya attempting just 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes over a storied 16-fight UFC career, he's not shooting on Dricus. He'll have to win with his standup -- as oddsmakers curiously project happens more often than not.

I see this line as nothing but inflation for the star. Adesanya's regression has shown dating back to a 2021 loss to Jan Blachowicz, who is 1-2-1 since that fight himself. Adesanya's low volume (3.93 significant strikes landed per minute) and lack of grappling upside provide very few paths to victory. He's the anthesis of Dricus in many ways.

Though Adesanya's surprising newfound muscle mass is intriguing, no one has ever dropped Du Plessis -- much less knocked him out. I believe the South African will be the busier party with grappling upside over 25 minutes -- if the now-35-year-old Adesanya can last that long.

My model has Du Plessis 66.0% likely to win this fight, and it believes it happens inside the distance 46.3% of the time. I don't see that as a miscalculation; this number seems eerily similar to how Conor McGregor's last few unsuccessful bouts have looked on FanDuel. The public has chosen a side, but there's really only one that makes sense from a technical MMA perspective.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.