UFC 303: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Ricky Simon vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

One strike probably changed Ricky Simon's moneyline in this fight from -250 versus north of -1000 had it not happened.

Vinicius Oliveira was sinking in his UFC debut, allowing three takedowns, 4:28 in control time, and arguably down two rounds to fellow debutant Bernardo Sopaj (0-1 UFC). That was even more embarrassing with the context that Sopaj, a natural flyweight, took the fight earlier that week. Then, Oliveira produced a flying knee knockout that'll be tough to bump from UFC's Knockout of the Year award the remainder of 2024.

On short notice, Sopaj just ran out of steam and was a sitting duck. Simon, an 8-4 divisional staple, is a massive step up in competition when Oliveira's takedown defense (40%) has outright flunked to this stage.

Takedowns are Simon's specialty. He lands 5.49 per 15 minutes with tremendous accuracy (54%), and that number is especially godly in such a lengthy sample that's forayed into the rankings. Simon also enters with a 61% striking defense that's helpful to snuff out any tomfoolery that "Lokdog" might try to perform as he did on Sopaj.

Simon's historical durability -- finished just once in UFC back in 2019 -- means Oliveira likely has to win minutes here, and he figures to spend as much time (if not more) on his back as he did in his debut.

The favorite is unbeaten in eight starts outside the rankings. Oliveira's poor wrestling defense isn't a good candidate to buck that trend.

Betting Verdict

• I parlayed Simon's moneyline (-250) in this spot. He's still in his prime at 31 and has made a habit out of squashing opponents with poor wrestling D like this one.
• I actually lean under 2.5 rounds (-120) in this spot when Simon has finished three of his last four bouts outside of bantamweight's top 15.

DFS Verdict

• At worst, Simon ($19) piles up several takedowns that's led to a stellar 4.14 FanDuel points per minute (excl. bonuses) so far. At best, he finishes Oliveira. He's a top-three MVP candidate on the card.

Rei Tsuruya vs. Carlos Hernandez

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

The promotion's Road to UFC program in Asia hasn't been incredibly successful turning in fighters -- especially of the ranked variety. Japan's Rei Tsuruya is looking to change that.

Tsuruya dominated his finale on the show with three submission attempts before a TKO finish to win last season's flyweight crown. At 22 years old, Tsuruya is undefeated as pro (9-0), and his style is incredibly predictable and dependable. Averaging 6.84 takedowns per 15 minutes behind stellar accuracy (54%) on the show, not many answers were had. Carlos Hernandez will need to turn things around in that department quickly to keep his feet in this matchup.

Hernandez's 61% takedown D is largely responsible for most of his shortcomings. He's surrendered multiple takedowns in four of his five UFC-affiliated bouts. Yet, he doesn't have a pro win via knockout and just a +0.41 striking success rate (SSR), so it's not like the striking has been an extreme advantage for him.

His only unanimous win has come over Denys Bondar (0-3 UFC), so we're still waiting for a clear triumph over a division staple. There's probably a reason he's been offered to a prospect the promotion would really like to succeed and pay off a million-dollar-plus campaign in Asia.

You'll rarely catch me laying a -480 moneyline with a debutant, but Tsuruya's ability to get this to the ground often should be equal parts explosive and fun.

Betting Verdict

• Tsuruya's inside-the-distance prop (-145) is even pretty steep despite coming from an entry path to UFC that routinely disappoints. I'm passing on this fight from a betting sense.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where I'm more receptive to variance, and Tsuruya's exceptional takedown volume and chances for an early finish are both outstanding qualities at a $22 salary.

Martin Buday vs. Andrei Arlovski

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

The uneasy nature of UFC's pay system creates situations like Andrei Arlovski.

The 45-year-old is still slugging it out with heavyweights at an extreme age for the sport because the former champion is raking in more compliance pay than anyone in the sport at present. It's just getting hard to watch.

"Pitbull" has entirely lost his fastball, failing to register a knockdown since May 2015. He hasn't authored a takedown since September 2018. Arlovski's entire fight strategy is slowing the pace to a crawl and hoping to survive -- just as he did in January against Waldo Cortes-Acosta (6-1 UFC). Before that, the veteran was knocked out and submitted in consecutive fights before the 10-minute mark.

I appreciate the UFC handing him Martin Buday, author of just two knockdowns in six UFC-affiliated fights, as a bit of a peace offering. Nonetheless, Buday is a significant challenge in terms of actually winning this bout.

The Slovakian lands at an unusually high clip for heavyweight (5.12 significant strikes per minute) with solid striking accuracy (52%) and defense (54%). We even saw a first-round submission two fights ago that shows "Badys" might be adding some tools to his toolkit.

I must admit that I was tempted by Arlovski's superior SSR (+0.58), but he's lost the distance striking differential in three of his last five against entry-level competition with no finishing equity. Buday's poor showing against Shamil Gaziev (1-1 UFC) aside, this is a layup.

Betting Verdict

• I don't mind Buday's moneyline (-265) in this spot when there's a possibility he gets sucked into Arlovski's patented quicksand to not finish it. He's 63.2% likely to win, per my model.
  • By striking volume in a decision or another sad chapter for the former champion, he should come out victorious.
• Curiously, this fight is -150 to go the distance, which has been the case in 6 of these two's combined 10 fights since the start of 2022. I've got that at 66.0% likely.
  • There's no point to play the under in lieu of Buday's inside-the-distance prop (+170). I've got Arlovski's finishing chances at a dismal 7.9%.

DFS Verdict

• There's a superior argument for Arlovski ($10) as a punt in this realm with so many projected finishers around Buday ($21), who is most likely to go to a decision.

Gillian Robertson vs. Michelle Waterson-Gomez

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Michelle Waterson-Gomez is getting an opportunity to go out on her terms.

"The Karate Hottie" has lost six of her last seven fights, which has unfortunately coincided with turning 38 to legitimize the results. Waterson-Gomez's losing streak has encapsulated my entire run handicapping fights with FanDuel, so it's not like I've been incorrect being entirely out on her middling analytical profile.

She's a one-dimensional striker with a -0.63 SSR and sub-50% marks in both striking accuracy and defense. Her one strength -- a 70% takedown defense -- is why this matchmaking with Gillian Robertson should be her best chance to get back in the win column (and hopefully retire).

Robertson's strength has never been striking, but even her -0.53 SSR is superior. She's actually still flyweight's all-time record holder for finishes (7) but dropped to 115 pounds three fights ago. Her 2-1 record has been impressive -- especially with the only setback inside the rankings to Tabatha Ricci (5-2 UFC).

Where "The Savage" shines and gets those finishes is on the ground behind 2.53 takedowns and 1.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

While Waterson-Gomez could potentially keep this fight at distance longer than Robertson wants, she hasn't shown the power or efficiency to make that count. On the flip side, the underdog has been submitted twice with UFC as recently as 2022, and that's Gillian's bread and butter.

This line seems wide in a division notorious for close decisions, but Robertson -- in her prime -- is truly the only fighter with a path to dominate it.

Betting Verdict

• Even with Waterson-Gomez's success defending takedowns, my model still projects 3.32 for Robertson in this matchup. Expecting the worst version of the underdog yet at 38, it's no surprise it lines "The Savage" as a -205 favorite.
• Robertson is an extreme outlier at women's 115; 9 of her 10 UFC wins have come inside the distance. I've got Robertson's inside-the-distance prop (+150) at +184 in the model, so I'm passing.

DFS Verdict

• If Robertson doesn't get the finish, this fight could be dreadful in DFS. I could sprinkle her in flex spots, but I'm leaning toward largely leaving this one behind.

Payton Talbott vs. Yanis Ghemmouri

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

I don't know how UFC gets away with sanctioning these fights for top prospects. First came Bo Nickal's record-breaking moneyline at UFC 290, and now, here's Payton Talbott encroaching the record at UFC 303.

The rising superstar's placement on this card, formerly capped by "The Notorious" one, was intentional. Talbott has absolutely crushed three UFC-affiliated appearances to this point, and there is zero -- and I mean zero -- doubt that Cameron Saaiman (3-2 UFC) was a tougher test than this weekend's against Yanis Ghemmouri. This is less about testing the Nevadan than showcasing him.

Talbott responded to that booking of Saaiman with a +48 striking differential in a violent knockout within six minutes. It was his best showing yet, snatching the torch of best 135-pound prospect from the South African. Ghemmouri's 0-1 UFC record and suboptimal regional competition aren't close to the same challenge.

Against William Gomis (3-0 UFC), "The Desert Warrior" landed just 28 significant strikes in just over 12 minutes at a 38% clip. He also only defended 40% of Gomis' advances. The Frenchman is a decent enough prospect, but that third-round TKO of Ghemmouri was his only UFC win by finish.

Ghemmouri's one out could be grappling, per four pro wins via submission. However, Talbott's 90% takedown defense has stood nearly perfect so far. This -2000 moneyline is prohibitive, but it is impossible to imagine a scenario where Talbott doesn't get his hand raised stepping back in competition.

Betting Verdict

• Given the favorite just squashed a superior prospect early in the second, Talbott's Round 1 or Round 2 prop (-110) is solid.

DFS Verdict

• MVP candidates don't come more obvious than Talbott ($23). Landing 8.05 significant strikes per minute, his fantasy upside could be higher without a finish than with one. It's very reminiscent of Sean O'Malley's early profile.

Charles Jourdain vs. Jean Silva

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

Handicapping Charles Jourdain is pretty simple. If you can wrestle, you can likely beat the Canadian.

Jourdain's 48% takedown defense is dreadful and perhaps worst in the division. He's used a pair of guillotine chokes on unsuspecting wrestlers to bail out of a couple matchups, but otherwise, he has a record of 2-0-1 when his opponent failed to land a takedown. He's 4-6 when they have.

"Air" has a +1.25 SSR, so he relishes any opportunity to strike, but a 0.66% knockdown rate doesn't give him the powerful escape hatch to evade those with wrestling ability. Jean Silva is that.

"Lord" is the 145-pound representative from Brazil's "Fighting Nerds" camp that just keeps winning. He's been masterful through two UFC-affiliated appearances to post a +1.56 SSR. Absolutely crucial for this matchup, Silva has added 1.56 takedowns per 15 minutes with solid accuracy (50%) to project success in a matchup with Jourdain.

The grappling-based gym likely won't fall victim to Jourdain's one trick. He doesn't have another method of submission on his UFC record besides a guillotine. Plus, Silva shouldn't be written off as competitive at distance.

This was an easy decision.

Betting Verdict

• Silva's moneyline (-105) was the first bet I made this week.
  • Jourdain has been guillotine choke-or-bust since moving up in competition against wrestling threats, and the black belt is simply too well-trained. He's never been finished inside the distance.
• With a combined one pro loss between early finish between them, this fight is -134 to go the full distance.

DFS Verdict

• Though scoring upside could be muted in this fight overall, I'll take a stab at Silva ($14) to score takedown points and a win bonus.

Andre Fili vs. Cub Swanson

Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

After enduring the trials and tribulations of one of UFC's deepest divisions, Andre Fili and Cub Swanson will finally cross paths this weekend.

"Touchy" Fili has been much further from the title picture, but the 34-year-old is also much closer to his prime. I've increasingly grown less and less certain about Fili's ability to win fights because, in my opinion, he doesn't maximize his strengths.

That's his wrestling, averaging 2.16 takedowns per 15 minutes with great accuracy (47%) considering the sample. Yet, Fili hasn't landed a takedown in five of his last seven fights, falling in love with his striking despite accuracy (37%) and power (0.68% knockdown rate) that leaves quite a bit to be desired. He lost a firefight to Dan Ige in February.

On the other side, "Killer" Cub is 40 years old and could be entering a retirement bout here. We truly never know -- and a 4-2 record in his last six bouts isn't exactly calling for the gloves to be dropped. Swanson's two setbacks are to a ranked 135er (Jonathan Martinez) and 145er (Giga Chikadze), but coming by quick knockout, it's possible age is becoming more than a number.

Nonetheless, Swanson scored an upset of Hakeem Dawodu last August that was always possible if his durability held. Swanson's striking accuracy (50%) and defense (59%) remain elite on paper despite a 23-fight tenure.

In his prime, Swanson's lone vulnerability was submission danger. He's lost five of nine bouts via sub. Fili (0.3 attempts per 15 minutes) doesn't really have that. Assuming Cub's chin has one last ride, his +0.86 SSR towers over Fili's (-0.26) against much better historical competition. This is my model's closest fight of the weekend, leaving plenty of value on the +205 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• Even accounting for age, I've actually got Swanson favored (50.3% likely to win) by the thinnest of margins.
  • His moneyline (+205) is my favorite angle when a decision (modeled at 26.4%) and early finish (23.9%) are both decently likely, per the algorithm.
• Overall, I've got this fight going the distance 57.8% of the time. It's -106 to go over 2.5 rounds, though.

DFS Verdict

• Swanson ($11) is the lowest salary I can recommend in FanDuel's player pool this weekend. He's a crucial -- but volatile -- value play. Length alone should put him ahead of most punt options.

Joe Pyfer vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Another one of the prospects that I believe the UFC was hoping would soak up some of that McGregor shine is Joe Pyfer.

The Philadelphian has always been a favorite of Dana White. Heck, he even paid for Pyfer's housing as his career with the promotion was starting. "Bodybagz" responded with an explosive trip up the middleweight later, scoring three early stoppages inside eight minutes to earn his first main event against Jack Hermansson.

The veteran Hermansson proved there are levels to this game, using leg kicks and superior conditioning to dispatch him behind a -29 striking differential over the course of a five-round decision. Back scheduled for three rounds, Pyfer's conditioning questions will get a bit of a respite against Marc-Andre Barriault.

Canada's "Powerbar" has established himself as a gatekeeper outside the rankings, failing to break through against Chris Curtis and Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez but handling most everyone else. At 13.17 significant strikes attempted per minute, Barriault pushes an unusual pace on the feet for a man his size to overcome minimal power (0.35% knockdown rate).

This fight might be best classified as the tortoise once again squaring off with the hare. Pyfer's 1.09% knockdown rate also comes with grappling upside -- the best Barriault has faced since surrendering eight takedowns and a sub to Hernandez. The prospect offers 3.63 takedown attempts per 15 minutes while converting a decent clip (41%) of them.

I know the tortoise infamously won the first matchup, but this tortoise's matchup was handpicked by Dana White to get the hare back in the win column. That's worth mentioning when my model, blind to it, likes Pyfer quite a bit regardless.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Pyfer 61.9% likely to win this bout, coming inside the distance 47.2% of the time. Barriault had significant wrestling woes against Hernandez yet hasn't seen a similar matchup since to verify improvement.
  • Though not quite seeing moneyline value here, Pyfer inside-the-distance prop (+110) is the best value in the fight.

DFS Verdict

• Talbott, Tsuruya, and Simon are all ripe to post fantasy points with plenty of finishing upside. Pyfer ($20) sits a distant fourth behind them and is better used in flex spots.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael "Venom" Page

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

This fight -- above any other -- was one where I reminded myself that this card was initially drafted in the image of one Conor McGregor.

That's because Ian Machado Garry, a brash-talking Irishman that's undefeated in UFC, is in many ways carrying McGregor's torch for the country as a near doppelgänger. I must admit that I've doubted his fighting skills previously, but Garry's resumé is starting to match his mouth with ranked wins over Geoff Neal and Neil Magny in consecutive bouts. Given a +20 striking differential or better, they weren't particularly close, either.

While you'd hope for a better finishing rate than 43% for a McGregor substitute, Garry's +2.38 SSR is pretty flawless with striking accuracy (55%) and defense (53%) that are actual improving as the competition does. UFC has a striking masterclass in mind to pair him with Michael Page.

"Venom" was a top-five welterweight in Bellator for a decade before finally making the plunge to UFC, and the Englishman's unorthodox striking style proved too much for Kevin Holland (13-8) in his debut. The best way I could describe his kickboxing is that he's fencing with his fists -- hence the lethal accuracy (69%) so far.

Page has lost just twice in 24 pro MMA fights, but at 37 years old, he's not shown to be unbeatable. In addition to a loss in his final bout with Bellator, MVP lost in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championship (BKFC) to UFC alum Mike Perry (7-8 UFC).

Having just seen Garry run laps around Neal, I find it hard to project Page to beat him. The favorite lands 3.13 more significant strikes per minute when both have shown minimal lapses in durability.

Betting Verdict

• Garry's moneyline (-158) has passed the stage where I'd bet it. The fighter in his prime does have the potential grappling upside in this fight in addition to a volume advantage, but any fight involving Page is going to be unorthodox.
• I've expected more out of Garry to finish inferior competition. Now, he's facing a veteran with hallmarks of durability and control of his weapons. I believe this fight goes all 15 minutes, which is -160 on FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• Machado Garry ($17) has been a -388 favorite on average in his first seven UFC bouts. Usually frustrated by his lack of finishing upside at lofty salaries, his striking volume alone is more than enough to merit a roster spot in the mid-range.
  • Page's UFC debut was a dominant win, but he scored just 44.1 FanDuel points. He doesn't offer many significant strikes.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

I haven't been more disappointed by a title-fight participant in 2024 than Mayra Bueno Silva.

"Sheetara" injected fun into this women's 135 division with four straight wins since moving up in weight, and her lethal grappling (1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes) entered that chance at gold off three straight submissions. Yet, her endurance bit her against current champion Raquel Pennington; "Rocky" defended six of her nine takedown efforts, and MBS threw just 88 significant strike total attempts and exhaustion still took over.

She'll look to rebound and show improvement against Macy Chiasson when the winner of this fight likely gets a crack at the Kayla Harrison-Raquel Pennington winner in the not-too-distant future.

Chiasson has always been on the watchlist in this division due to her rare size (5'11") for it, but the pieces are now coming together. She submitted Pannie Kianzad inside the rankings in her last fight, and six takedowns in a domination of Norma Dumont (7-2 UFC) has also made her stock rise.

Bueno Silva nabbed Holly Holm's neck for her only win inside the rankings -- but the 41-year-old Holm isn't a truly elite win at this stage. Her warts -- like her endurance, a -1.02 SSR , and mediocre size for this weight class (5'6") -- could be on display against another contender.

Nonetheless, Pennington submitted Chiasson three fights ago, and Bueno Silva is an even more dangerous proposition to do so. At a pick 'em, that's the tiebreaker.

Betting Verdict

• I do have Bueno Silva modeled to win 52.8% of the time, and line movement pushed her moneyline (-110) into value range.
• The total is intriguing here. I've got the fight ending early 44.0% of the time, and 29.0% of that equity belongs to Bueno Silva's submission prop (+310).
  • I've got Chaisson winning just 12.4% of the time early -- and it's hard to envision against a jiu-jitsu specialist.

DFS Verdict

• Bueno Silva ($16) has the upside to finish this fight in a way Chiasson ($13) hasn't shown via power in her hands. I see an argument to lean both ways in a fantasy setting given the underdog's salary discount.

Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Smith

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

I'll never forgive my model for this.

I never thought I'd back Anthony Smith with any semblance of confidence, but this short-notice situation is probably where it would happen. "Lionheart" is aptly nicknamed to have a 5-3 record in his last eight fights despite a -1.24 SSR with awful striking (46%) and takedown (49%) defense. He's used plus jiu-jitsu for the division to submit those less capable -- like the previously undefeated Vitor Petrino back in May.

Smith initially stepped in to face undefeated Carlos Ulberg in this fight, but Ulberg's subsequent withdrawal has led to Roman Dolidze moving up from 185 pounds to take the opportunity. Dolidze is 2-0 at light heavyweight, so it's not far-fetched he can compete at what would be a huge disadvantage for most.

Dolidze could use positive momentum in the worst way. He's been blitzed for a -135 striking differential, escaping a three-fight skid with an unorthodox submission to punches of Jack Hermansson (11-6 UFC). I've compared his fighting style to that of a grizzly bear, clubbing overhand rights and looking to maul opponents with strength-based takedowns.

It's possible his modest wrestling efficiency (40% takedown accuracy) gets the better of Smith, but a grappling-heavy approach on short notice is a tough sell -- especially after trimming out for middleweight. Without a submission escape, Smith's superior striking and level of competition has this fight too close to lay chalk with Roman.

Betting Verdict

• One of my model's blindspots at this point is fighters moving up in weight, and without that adjustment, I've got Dolidze as 52.8% likely to win. Mentally, this fight is a coin flip.
• Interestingly, I've got this one 55.5% likely to end early. It's sort of a tough call when Dolidze and Smith have gone the distance in four of their six combined bouts since the start of 2023. Neither fighter is fully prepared for the other, either.

DFS Verdict

• Amidst the heavy favorites on this card that seem destined for 100-plus FanDuel points, every dollar counts in the value bin. Smith ($12) represents the easier option to fit into builds.

Diego Lopes vs. Brian Ortega

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

This fight will tell us exactly what we need to know about Diego Lopes' viability of holding UFC gold.

Lopes has burst onto the scene with three straight finishes inside of two minutes, including over Sodiq Yusuff (7-3 UFC) in his last bout. He's got absurd tools to finish fights behind a 3.13% knockdown rate and 5.0 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and his losses to Movsar Evloev (8-0 UFC) and Joanderson Brito (5-1 UFC) -- both by decision -- have aged like fine wine.

There's just still plenty of questions in the event a fighter is both tough and skilled enough to survive his onslaught. Lopes' striking (37%) and takedown (42%) defense are both poor, and his -51 striking differential against Evloev wasn't exactly competitive. Can Brian Ortega check his hype train at the door?

"T-City" will certainly try. Ortega got a career-altering submission of Yair Rodriguez earlier this year in Mexico, and the 33-year-old former title challenger is sort of the forgotten man at 145. A combined -406 striking differential against Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski has forever dented the striking peripherals of Ortega, whose -2.47 SSR shows how decent he's been against all others.

Nonetheless, Ortega butters his bread with his grappling, landing 1.17 takedowns and 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He's a four-time UFC winner via submission, and his durability -- dropped twice in 1,003 career significant strikes absorbed -- is as good as it gets anywhere in the sport, too.

This was a really cool fight to model. Lopes' viability is based entirely into huge moments, and Ortega avoids them. His only loss by finish was a shoulder injury. If able to survive shots on the feet, Ortega's wrestling should be able to put Lopes on his back and in a position where the prospect has shown willing to concede minutes.

At a pick 'em price, this would be a devilish decision, but the betting value is on the 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Lopes 51.3% likely to win this fight -- all coming inside the distance. He's just not built to win minutes if the initially flurry fails, so it's hard to align on his -144 price.
• With that said, this fight is -186 to not go the distance, and I've got that outcome at 76.3% likely.
  • In lieu of the over, I'd just bet Ortega's decision prop (+340) instead.

DFS Verdict

• Lopes ($17) should be an enormously popular MVP candidate, but I prefer punting to Ortega ($15).
  • The odds this fight ends early create an extremely low floor for both.

Alex Pereira vs. Jiri Prochazka

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)
Five-Round Championship Fight

Your déjà vu is justified. Just seven months ago, Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka met to decide the 205-pound title, and they'll do it again on short notice to bail out the promotion from Conor McGregor's withdrawal.

A rematch is more than justified. Prochazka outstruck Pereira at distance, 26-22, and added 2:45 in control time to arguably win the first round. In the second, Pereira clipped Prochazka to knock him down before a questionable stoppage ended the bout.

Optics definitely favor "Poatan" in the rematch. With a 3-0 record at light heavyweight, Pereira seems unbeatable off an aura-laden knockout of Jamahal Hill at UFC 300. Yet, we know he has his warts. A 50% striking defense is especially concerning when his final middleweight bout, a KO loss to Israel Adesanya, continues to age poorly, and Pereira's expedited UFC career -- still just 12 fights into a pro MMA career -- has still left questions about his ability to grapple at the sport's top level. Four of Pereira's six foes in the top 10 haven't even tried.

"BJP" Prochazka was one of them -- and had success as mentioned. Still, Jiri's shortcomings mix like oil and water with Pereira's strengths. He struggles with leg kicks -- Poatan's signature weapon -- every bout. His 41% striking D is a ticking time bomb, too.

Nonetheless, this fight is a great lesson about probability. Pereira's knockout of Prochazka is one likely outcome of their matchup. It's not the only. Can Prochazka's insane pressure and excellent head movement mix well enough with his grappling to topple the potentially chinny 36-year-old? That's also an outcome.

My model, memorably, had these two's first fight an identical 50-50 coin flip. Through brief results that followed, Pereira has edged to a 51.4% favorite. It's designed to not overreact like this betting market to what's seen versus what's possible.

Betting Verdict

• Prochazka and Pereira's first fight was a pick 'em. Though the result heavily leaned Pereira, the moments inside the fight were tight. Prochazka's moneyline (+120) is far more inflated than it should be to come out ahead this time.
• My model has this fight 65.5% likely to not start Round 4. That's been the outcome in 9 of these two's 12 combined fights, and these are powerful guys with dire consequences behind blows.

DFS Verdict

• One of these two has a painfully low floor for the elevated, five-round salaries. It's a fight to choose and hope, and I'm rolling the dice on a contrarian stab at Prochazka ($16) at a much lower salary.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.