UFC 301: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg, taking place at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on Saturday.

Alessandro Costa vs. Kevin Borjas

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Alessandro Costa has been throw to the wolves, so it's nice to see the Amazonas native get a much more appropriate test in his backyard.

Costa's three fights in UFC have come against two top-10 contenders and Jimmy Flick (2-2 UFC), who he dispatched in just over six minutes. "Nono" has impressed to still hold a respectable striking (56%) and takedown (90%) defense amidst some pretty substantial challenges.

That could also apply to Kevin Borjas, though. Borjas had the misfortune of drawing Josh Van (3-0 UFC) in his UFC debut, displaying quite a bit of toughness to last the full 15 minutes despite a -81 striking differential. Van's pair of takedowns left Borjas' takedown D at just 56% when also factoring in his Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) bid with regional grappling veteran Victor Dias.

While I'm all for a pass, Costa's run has included tougher competition than Van, and he's managed a +0.14 striking success rate to Bojas' -1.23 SSR. Costa's striking accuracy (46%) is also higher than Borjas' (41%).

He should definitely be favored to win this bout. A -132 moneyline seems appropriate given a competitive fight with one of the men fighting for the title.

Betting Verdict

• I laid Costa's moneyline (-132) when it dipped below -135. His experience, power, and grappling upside are key advantages.
• The total, expecting an early finish at -158, seems a bit steep when I feel only the Brazilian has legitimate finishing upside, but I've made no play.

DFS Verdict

• With just 0.16 combined takedowns per 15 minutes between these two, I'm expecting a war on the feet. While both could pay off their salaries, I expect Costa ($16) to be a step ahead.

Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

This fight was scheduled for UFC's last trip to Brazil in São Paulo, but an Ismael Bonfim weight miss rescheduled this fight to Rio.

With Bonfim making weight, on Friday, there's a reason he's one of the card's largest favorites (-520). Bonfim's UFC sample includes a second-round KO of Terrance McKinney (5-3 UFC) and a forgivable loss to ranked 155er Benoit Saint Denis. I genuinely don't know why the UFC deemed the 41-year-old Pichel -- his easiest foe to date -- as his next target.

Bonfim's 57% striking accuracy and 76% defense -- especially through those two -- is remarkable, and he's defended 81% of takedowns thus far. That last note is of the utmost importance given Pichel's American-wrestling-heavy style.

"From Hell" Pichel posts 3.00 takedowns per 15 minutes with 54% accuracy, but he's had issues (23% takedown D) when his opponents bring that same energy. On the feet, I'd call him responsible behind a 58% striking defense and +1.06 SSR.

All of that comes with a caveat, though. Pichel's last three opponents have an average age of 34.7, and the electric, youthful Bonfim is a vastly different tempo than lightweight's proverbial senior circuit.

In his prime, McKinney's wrestling stats and documented power are vastly superior to Pichel's, and Bonfim blew straight through "T-Wrecks". That's why this line sits where it does.

Betting Verdict

• Pichel has only been finished twice as a pro, but into your 40s is when that attrition rate tends to skyrocket. Given I've got endurance questions about Bonfim, I've only taken nibbles at his round-one prop (+320) and round-two prop (+500) from this bout.

DFS Verdict

• Bonfim ($19) slides in second to a main-card fighter in my MVP hierarchy this week. Though a bit perturbed by the Saint Denis loss for the future, this step back in competition should produce a result closer to the McKinney fight.

Dione Barbosa vs. Ernesta Kareckaite

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

DWCS results on the men's side create enough variance. These ladies both have fewer than eight pro fights, so this is a sea of ambiguity.

Dione Barbosa will generally get the benefit of the doubt in her native Brazil, and it's also hard to argue with a first-round armbar of Rainn Guerrero on the show. The feather in her cap to get the UFC's attention was a win over a then-25-year-old Karine Silva back in 2019, but she also lost to Josi Nunes (3-1 UFC) by knockout on the regional scene.

Most expected "The Witch" to slice through Guerrero, but Ernesta Kareckaite's contract was a total surprise. She upset Carli Judice as a +190 underdog by defending all four of Judice's takedowns and putting out 27.00 (!) significant strike attempts per minute. Her 12.27 landed per minute would be a women's division record if it remained that high through the five minimum fights required.

This fight, with plenty of unknown, is a clear juxtaposition of styles. Barbosa will have the grappling advantage, but she will be vastly outmatched by "Heavy-Handed" Kareckaite in the kickboxing world. In addition to MMA criteria shifting to favor striking damage, we saw the Lithuanian defend takedowns well.

I don't think Barbosa's effort against an inexperienced, overwhelmed fighter should lead to such heavy conviction she gets a win here.

Betting Verdict

• A process play of mine is the decision prop of distant women's division underdogs in fights favored to go the distance. With this fight -156 to do just that, Kareckaite's points prop (+310) is a no-brainer when she's got a leg up from the scoring criteria.

DFS Verdict

• An early Barbosa ($18) submission is the result you'll need to pay off her salary. Trusting Karekaite's takedown D and oddsmakers' assessment of distance, the underdog ($12) is a handy value plug.

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

We'll see the Fighting Nerds' captain on the main card, and Mauricio Ruffy makes his UFC debut from the gym on the prelims.

Ruffy cashed as a +180 underdog on DWCS, besting Sambo ace Raimond Magomedaliev at his own game with a ground-and-pound TKO. Many were surprised he stuffed all three takedowns from him. He was well ahead in terms of striking accuracy (58%) and defense (58%), too. However, the best part? The Brazilian won that debut at 170 pounds, and he'll drop to 155 pounds in his debut to increase his relative size and power.

Jamie Mullarkey is an intriguing choice for his first test. The Australian has had a bit of an identity crisis in UFC, starting off landing eight takedowns in his first two fights but since falling in love with his hands. He's landed just seven total in his last eight fights, which isn't a good thing given a -0.03 SSR. His attrition is a massive concerning after having been dropped in four of his last six bouts.

I don't love supporting debutants in general, but Ruffy's takedown defense -- acing a test through a Khabib Nurmagomedov protégé -- should have a solid time when Mullarkey is pretty inefficient on takedowns as is (36%). On the feet, Ruffy also has significantly fewer chin concerns with a much better striking accuracy (58%) than Jamie (46%).

Mullarkey's loss to featherweight Muhammad Naimov (3-1 UFC) on short notice was simply a moment I can't forget as he now faces a former welterweight. His efficiency isn't even worth the risk, so Ruffy's short knockout price appears fair.

Betting Verdict

• All nine of Ruffy's pro wins have come via knockout with Mullarkey's durability a glaring weakness. Personally, the gap in implied probability between his moneyline (-215) and knockout prop (-105) should be closer to zero.

DFS Verdict

• Ruffy ($18) likely still carries too many questions to be an MVP candidate, but he's a knockout candidate for certain.

Drakkar Klose vs. Joaquim Silva

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

This is the first fight I could model on the card. Lightweight vets Drakkar Klose and Joaquim Silva both enter their 11th UFC bout on Saturday.

As a -188 favorite, Klose's trajectory to get here is far from linear. Injuries kept him out of the cage for over two years from 2020 to 2022, and he's yet to taste defeat in three fights since returning. Starting him back at the entry level, Klose's experience against high-level fighters like Beneil Dariush, Bobby Green, and Christos Giagos was too much for his opponents.

Overall, I'm a fan of his analytical profile. He's got a +0.93 SSR even with the striking defense (52%) a touch lower than you'd hope. In this matchup with a black belt, his 68% takedown D should be paramount, so it's worth mentioning he's defended 9 of 13 takedowns since his return.

On the flip side, Silva's issues have all been of his own doing. Odd knockout losses to Ricky Glenn and Nasrat Haqparast since the COVID break have crushed dreams of a ranking, and he just snuck by 42-year-old Clay Guida in a fight that was far closer than it should have been.

"Netto BJJ" is a BJJ specialist, which is why striking offense (41% accuracy) has always been such a pain point. His wrestling also stinks (0.60 takedowns per 15), so he has a hard time leading opponents into his best skillset. Drakkar has also never been professionally subbed.

Klose fought a similar -- if not tougher -- matchup with Rafa Garcia (4-3 UFC) since returning. He stuffed 8 of 11 takedowns and outpointed the inaccurate striker (42%) on the feet. I'd be shocked if he didn't do the same here on enemy soil.

Betting Verdict

• Given Klose's decision rate (70%) with UFC, I was a bit surprised my model had so much conviction for him to win this fight, but it's awarding a 67.3% chance.
• I've got this fight as 59.7% likely to go the distance with FanDuel's odds implying just a 46.3% chance. Klose's decision prop (+195) isn't sexy, but the model has it at +165.

DFS Verdict

• Even expecting length, Silva has been knocked out in three of his last five fights. Klose ($17) is a flex play with upside.

Myktybek Orolbai vs. Elves Brener

Lightweight (155 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

Central Asia imports tremendous grapplers regularly, and Kyrgyzstan's Myktybek Orolbai might just be the next big thing.

Orolbai dominated Uros Medic (5-2 UFC) on just days' notice last November, landing seven takedowns in second-round win via sub. Yet, Medic's 55% takedown D -- and two career losses via submission -- were a great fit to do so. Orolbai's start was a solid one, but I've still got questions as he's yet to defend a takedown, submission attempt, or more than five distance strikes in a fight. His pre-UFC level of competition comes without a measuring stick, as well.

Therefore, it'd be unwise to write off Elves Brener in this one, but that isn't new territory for Brener. He cashed as at least a +500 underdog in each of his first two UFC bouts, including a third-round stoppage of Guram Kutateladze (1-2 UFC). In São Paulo last fall, Brener knocked out Kaynan Kruschewsky in the latter's debut to prove he was solid as a favorite, too.

Brener, a product of Charles Oliveira's Chute Box gym, has a familiar style of pace, willpower, and grappling acumen. His takedown defense (85%) entering this fight could prove to be a huge asset against Orolbai, and his -0.41 SSR is actually superior to this stage despite the poor start against Kutateladze. Notably, he's 26 and a near half-decade from his analytical prime.

There's certainly a version of this fight where Orolbai's wrestling in a non-starter for Brener, but the Brazilian's best assets -- power, cardio, and takedown D -- could all be potential threats to the prospect. I don't have extreme conviction in this fight, which has me leaning toward a +205 moneyline.

Betting Verdict

• I haven't yet gotten to the window with Brener's moneyline (+205), but I tend to believe Orolbai's first UFC matchup was perfect for him, and I've got too many questions to lay -260 or the associated props.

DFS Verdict

• Curiously, this fight is -112 to go the full distance. Orolbai ($18) can pile up takedown points quickly, but Brener ($12) is the striker I'd argue has superior finishing upside. I'm leaning toward toward the underdog being so desperate for value plays.

Iasmin Lucindo vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

If there's a favorite I'd be stunned to see lose, it is surging strawweight prospect Iasmin Lucindo. Given a -420 price tag, oddsmakers are in the same boat.

Lucindo, 22, is significantly improving between fights, and we saw that with a second-round submission of Polyana Viana (4-6 UFC) in her last bout. Lucindo's debut on a week's notice resulted in a -20 striking differential that's done a bit of harm to her striking peripherals, but she's compiled six takedowns in her last two fights to dominate.

Meanwhile, Karolina Kowalkiewicz is entirely on the opposite end of the age spectrum. At 38, her brief retirement ended four fights ago, and she's trafficked outside of the rankings while facing fighters a combined 12-15 in UFC. The former title contender's elite striking pace (13.77 significant strike attempts per 15 minutes) has carried her quite far, but none of her four opponents had a grappling-heavy style.

All four averaged less than 1.10 takedowns per 15 minutes. Lucindo (2.33) towers over that, and her 66% accuracy is tremendous. I can't help remember when Kowalkiewicz had her arm snatched by Jessica Penne (2-5 UFC) the last time she faced a ground fighter.

In addition to speed, athleticism, and attrition edges, Lucindo also carries the toolkit that's given Karolina fits historically.

Betting Verdict

• I'll pass on the youngster's bloated moneyline for her submission prop (+430) in this fight. If Lucindo isn't able to dominate this fight with her grappling, it's possible Kowalkiewicz's pace is ahead on the feet.

DFS Verdict

• The odds this fight goes the distance (-176) would otherwise imply Lucindo ($19) should be avoided in DFS, but I truly do see an early submission outcome possible here. She's a sneaky play in tournaments.

Joanderson Brito vs. Jack Shore

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

I've got more questions than answers in this matchup of prospects.

On home turf, Joanderson Brito has gotten plenty of love in betting circles, but I'm as skeptical of him as many are of Jack Shore. Brito's sample since a convincing loss to Bill Algeo (5-4 UFC) is a 41-second KO of Andre Fili (11-10 UFC) that we've seen plenty of times, two wins over fleeting or cut 145ers, and a come-from-behind guillotine choke against Jonathan Pearce (5-3 UFC).

The problem is that he's not winning minutes against high-level featherweights -- as poor striking (47%) and takedown (50%) defense would indicate. In fact, the last time he did was dominating Diego Lopes (3-1 UFC) on DWCS, and that result has largely buoyed his stock in lieu of the actual UFC sample.

On the flip side, Shore's biggest concern is his size. He was submitted in the second round by Ricky Simon (8-4 UFC) at 135 pounds, but Simon is elite as a grappler in the division. Nonetheless, it is fair to wonder if larger athletes like Brito bully him at featherweight.

The difference between these two is that "Tank" has gone to a decision in three of his last five fights, so I have a larger sample that he's really good. Shore's +1.64 SSR comes with much higher striking D than Brito (57%), and he's added 3.42 takedowns per 15 minutes. Shore has two UFC wins by sub and defends takedowns at a 79% clip.

Brito's 0.76% knockdown rate is solid -- not great. His 0.8 sub attempts per 15 barely eclipse Shore's (0.7). Those peripherals alone indicate he's probably overperforming his danger to have collected this many consecutive finishes, and I wouldn't be surprised if this fight looks closer to his scrap with Algeo.

Betting Verdict

• While forecasting Brito to win slightly more often (52.4% of the time), this betting line is out of control. Shore's durability, takedown offense, and grappling acumen could easily replicate the Algeo result in this spot.
• I've got this fight 49.8% to see its full distance, but 32.9% of that share goes to "Tank" Shore. His decision prop (+390) is my favorite angle in the bout.

DFS Verdict

• I expect Brito ($17) to be overwhelmingly popular after delivering 90-plus FanDuel points in four straight, but Shore ($14) could be a razor-sharp pivot should he emerge victorious.

Caio Borralho vs. Paul Craig

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Context clues would lead you to believe Caio Borralho's coming-out party is Saturday. I just look at the results and don't know if he can deliver.

First and foremost, Borralho's level of competition has been poor. His opponents have a combined 15-17 UFC-affiliated record, and many of the multi-time winners like Michal Oleksiejczuk (7-5 UFC) and Armen Petrosyan (3-2 UFC) have sub-45% takedown defenses. They were tailor-made matchups for the Brazilian leader of the "Fighting Nerds" camp.

His peripherals are sparkling, but this is no Sean O'Malley situation. Borralho has gone to a decision with five of those seven fighters, including a tight decision with Makmud Muradov (4-2 UFC) where he lost several minutes. The idea he'll waltz through Paul Craig as a -650 favorite seems far-fetched to me.

"Bearjew" Craig is a fine enough matchup for him -- evidenced by a 37% takedown D. However, his two-fight sample at middleweight includes a TKO of ground specialist Andre Muniz (6-2 UFC) before running into the Brendan Allen (12-2 UFC) buzzsaw. Both would be Borralho's toughest foe, and he convincingly routed one of them.

Craig lives off his high-volume submission game (1.6 attempts per 15 minutes), but now at 36 years old, his 45% striking D and willingness to play off his back seem even more worrisome. That's Borrahlo's projected path to victory.

If the Scot can simply replicate Muradov's performance, he'll cover this betting number, but he's a significantly better grappler with more ranked UFC experience. It's hard to believe this line isn't too wide.

Betting Verdict

• While still giving Borralho a solid chance of winning (58.2%), my model's verdict pales in comparison to these 86.7% implied chances. I can't help but feel there's value on Craig's moneyline (+440).
• A decision outcome heavily favors the projected winner of minutes, Borralho. I've got this fight as 59.5% likely to see its full three rounds.
  • Craig's inside-the-distance prop (+650) seems like solid value. I've got it at +450.

DFS Verdict

• Craig has six UFC finishes in fights where he was a +170 underdog or longer. He's always a tempting dart for upside in this realm with such a low salary ($9).

Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Michel Pereira might be following in Sean Strickland's path of an okay welterweight turned title contender at 185.

Pereira has run through Andre Petroski (5-2 UFC) and Michal Oleksiejczuk in his first two middleweight appearances, and he'll be stepping back in competition in his native Brazil. "Demolidor" has always been a skilled combatant with excellent efficiency across the board. He's added 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes to a +1.44 SSR, and Pereira's biggest leap has been leaving the showboating outside of the cage.

The reason I see this as a significant stepback is that while Ihor Potieria might be 1-0 at middleweight, it came against a debutant, and his 1-3 record at light heavyweight isn't magically improved by better conditioning.

"The Duelist" squeaked by Robert Bryczek (0-1 UFC), but I've still got major concerns. His 51% striking D led to three losses by knockout, and his 57% takedown D is still an extremely relevant issue here when the Polish boxer was never going to test him in that realm.

Above all, Pereira's durability should carry him here. He has been finished just twice in 41 pro fights, and neither of those came within his 10 toughest bouts as a part of UFC. He should have a pronounced speed edge with grappling upside, age, and level of competition all in his direction. This is a layup.

Betting Verdict

• My model returned its highest win probability ever in this fight, expecting Pereira to win 75.5% of the time. The only arrow in Potieria's direction is power, which Michel's lengthy record of staying safe helps dilute.
• The model is not entirely convinced that this fight ends early, assigning just a 54.9% chance. I have a lean toward over 1.5 rounds (+126) with a Pereira finish coming later in the fight.

DFS Verdict

• To me, Pereira ($23) is the best MVP candidate on the card. His own track record of defense should allow him ample opportunity to get ahead of Ihor as both take this fight on short notice.

Vitor Petrino vs. Anthony Smith

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

It's a puzzle to me how Anthony Smith has kept his ranking despite a 4-8 record in his last 12 fights. UFC is apparently ready to wave goodbye.

"Lionheart" will face Vitor Petrino, who is surging toward contention in this wide-open, shallow division. Petrino has shown well-roundedness to win wherever duty called. He's cruised through foes with 3.68 takedowns per 15 minutes (with awesome 68% accuracy) when needed, and he's knocked two others out cold behind a 1.25% knockdown rate.

At 26, the Brazilian is just scratching the surface of potential and is improving each bout. Smith is definitely his toughest opponent to date, but there's also a massive gap in attrition compared to the 35-year-old with 56 pro bouts.

I've never been a Lionheart guy because he's always playing with fire behind a 46% striking D and 48% takedown D, and the offense (2.32 fantasy points per minute excl. bonuses) isn't a selling point, either. Once a guy who loved to turn back prospects, Smith has lost six in a row to ranked fighters like Petrino (15th).

I have one concern for Petrino in this bout. Smith has five UFC wins via submission, and he can be crafty off his back when Petrino doesn't have a ton of grappling experience. Otherwise, his physicality and takedown acumen should plant Smith at will, or he could easily be the second straight inefficient striker to find Smith's chin.

Betting Verdict

• I'll rarely show value on moneylines this wide, but I've got Petrino as 65.7% likely to win and 44.1% likely to do so inside the distance. Level of competition is the only thing not swinging his way in the model.
• In just a three-round fight, I've got a decision happening 44.9% of the time. That's way above the market, but Petrino already has a 40% decision rate entering his toughest fight so far, and Smith has seen the cards in two of his last three. It's plausible.

DFS Verdict

• High-level fantasy upside is harder to come by than you'd think on a card loaded with heavy favorites, so Petrino ($22) still has to be in consideration at MVP despite some risk of going the distance without much activity.

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

"The King of Rio" called off an early retirement when UFC announced they were headed back here.

Jose Aldo, 37, retired following his last bout in 2022, which was a decision loss to pending 135-pound title challenger Merab Dvalishvili. He's even in the Hall of Fame. An opportunity to fight in front of his hometown was too good to pass up.

However, I have a hard time evaluating Aldo as a fighter in 2024. His dominance in wins despite an overall -0.17 SSR suggests that it may not be super effective to wait for counterpunches as the quality of MMA has improved globally. His 60% striking D will always be tough to crack, and though his 91% takedown D was always a rock-solid advantage, Jonathan Martinez basically doesn't wrestle at all.

Aldo's days in the title picture are largely over, but this would be a huge feather in the cap of the 30-year-old from Los Angeles gunning for it. Martinez is a classic fighter from his Factory X Muay Thai gym. With excellent footwork and calf kicks, Martinez' +0.88 SSR has him usually ahead winning minutes, and his 1.14% knockdown rate is evident of the kill shots that work off that efficiency.

He's also substantially improved his takedown defense, defending 22 of the 27 takedown attempts he's faced since the start of 2020. Evidenced by just 0.91 attempts per 15 minutes, that has never been a strength of Aldo's, either.

I feel like the UFC did a grave disservice to Aldo in this return bout. A sloppy wrestler would have made for an ideal partner, but Martinez is in his prime, likely quicker, and downright mean with the low-kick attacks. I think "The Dragon" stamps a huge dub.

Betting Verdict

• It wasn't overly surprising to model Martinez as a -155 favorite here. That, alone, shows value against his -142 moneyline.
  • Yet, I've got his knockout prop (+390) substantially higher than the market. At 31.2% implied, I'd put it at +220.
• I'm also showing value on this fight to not go the distance (+166). It's +155 in the model.

DFS Verdict

• Aldo's historical durability and a 60% striking D make him tough to love targeting in DFS. Martinez ($16) is a decent flex choice, but I'm not forecasting a boatload of upside at a median.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)
Five-Round Championship Fight

Steve Erceg will have pulled off a real-life version of Rocky in just 10 months if he can somehow defeat Alexandre Pantoja for the men's flyweight belt.

Due to a muddy set of rankings that got even muddier with Alex Perez's win last week, Erceg's availability and lack of weaknesses so far earned him this title shot over Muhammad Mokaev, a decision machine with questionable striking. At 5'8", "Astroboy" is supremely large for the division with quality striking (+0.93 SSR) and a solid takedown threat (5.63 attempts per 15 minutes).

However, it would be pretty wild for a UFC fighter to secure a title in just three fights -- and only two of them inside the rankings. Erceg's experience is a drawback, but previous UFC fighters to earn a title shot in three or fewer fights are 5-0 within the championship bout.

Pantoja, meanwhile, has now won this belt off Brandon Moreno last July via split decision, and he was able to take Brandon Royval down eight times to win a decision and close 2023. His ultimate wish was to defend his belt in his native Rio, and he's had it granted.

Many remain skeptical of "The Cannibal" separating from this division, though. In any division, a 50% striking defense and 67% takedown defense just isn't very strong, and he had a clear path through Royval's 40% takedown D pull away. With Erceg's at 77% through three decent ground threats, that might not be present.

Astroboy's striking D (55%) has also been better, which is how he's topped Pantoja's +0.42 SSR. It's unnerving to pick such an inexperienced fighter, but my model easily concluded this line was too wide.

Betting Verdict

• I've got Pantoja at 56.3% likely to win this fight, which implies around -130 odds. His moneyline is simply too long with unique wrestling defense challenges ahead, so I laid Erceg's moneyline (+154) earlier this week.
• Curiously, I've got the fight 60.1% to start Round 4 when it comes at -166 odds.
  • Pantoja's only three UFC losses came via decision, and Erceg hasn't lost with solid defense. I agree with the assessment of length in theory, too.

DFS Verdict

• With elevated salaries given the five-rounder, it's tough to stack this fight even expecting length. I'm taking Erceg ($17) when both are very similar historical fantasy-point scorers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.