If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 14 fights at UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2, taking place at the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL on Saturday.

Maryna Moroz vs. Joanne Wood

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

The night starts with a pivotal flyweight clash for Maryna Moroz.

Moroz, the 32-year-old from Ukraine, needs this dub if she's going to contend in any meaningful manner at flyweight. Her first-round submission loss to Karine Silva (3-0 UFC) wasn't the end of the world, but the 3-3 record in her past six fights matches a middle-of-the-road -0.27 striking success rate (SSR). Moroz also has leaned on her grappling in recent key wins, but a 22% takedown accuracy overall doesn't imply it's a reliable strategy against modest knowledge or defense.

Joanne Wood certainly has the experience at 38, but we'll see if her 59% takedown D is enough this time around. Wood's 1-5 record via submission has kept her from the top of the division, and that includes a 2015 loss via sub to Moroz herself. I think that explains the odds on this fight in the box score, but review of the fight would see Moroz, sneakily, pulled guard -- a trick likely to not work twice with preparation.

If this stayed at distance for an extended period, Wood's +2.21 SSR likely takes the Ukrainian's lunch money. Despite her age, the form isn't shabby in that department after posting a +31 striking differential against Luana Carolina (5-3 UFC) last year. She won by decision there.

To me, this fight being -180 to go the distance is a huge talking point. My model also has it at 76.8% likely. If there's length to this fight at all, Wood should not be this distant to win it.

Betting Verdict

• Moroz's path to winning this fight is either another quick submission or scoring control time with wrestling -- a strategy less and less reliable given modern MMA judging shifts. I've got Wood at 48.8% to win and 40.3% to win by decision. Her decision prop (+420) is an easy spot to target.

DFS Verdict

• If this fight just goes all 15 minutes, Moroz ($20) won't pay off her salary. In fact, she's historically topped 50 FanDuel points in just 3 of 11 career fights. Wood ($10) is the clear target for me in this domain.

Assu Almabayev vs. CJ Vergara

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This card is so loaded that only 3 of the 14 bouts didn't fit my criteria to model. This was one of them, which is probably for the best. CJ Vergara is a tough guy to model.

Vergara's UFC tenure has been anything but linear since a late-notice debut against Ode Osbourne (3-2 UFC) where he nearly stole the show with a win. On paper, Vergara's only other UFC loss is to an undefeated ranked fighter, Tatsuro Taira. That makes this betting line seem pretty wide, but the way that fight went down is probably why.

Vergara's initial takedown defense against Taira was actually quite good (5-for-8), but when eventually dragged down, the Japanese phenom controlled 6:19 of the fight's 9:19 duration and posted three submission attempts, finishing the job with the last. Assu Almabayev just controlled the aforementioned Osbourne for 66.0% of his debut, landing two takedowns and two submission attempts. That's the genesis of this betting line.

Almabayev is no prospect at 30 years old from Kazakhstan and holding an 18-2 record. The training partner of undefeated 170-pounder Shavkat Rakhmonov is looking for a similar undefeated, dominant ascent to the top five.

I haven't seen quite enough from Assu to back a -590 moneyline, but he's a comfy win pick here with finishing upside.

Betting Verdict

• This sort of wide moneyline on a UFC prospect can look like a bargain in hindsight, but the sub-nine-minute sample against a flawed Osbourne still has Almabayev on fraud watch entering this one. I'll sit this fight out here with plenty of others having concrete data.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where I'm more receptive toward Almabayev ($22) as the card's largest favorite with -140 odds to win inside the distance. The lack of super desirable candidates elsewhere has him in the MVP mix.

Robelis Despaigne vs. Josh Parisian

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

If anecdotal clues actually decided fights, this one would already be over.

At 35, Robelis Despaigne will make his UFC debut in the heavyweight division -- a division that could still mean at least five years of his prime. At 6'7" with an 87" reach, the hard-hitting Cuban is likely going to be an action-packed addition to the roster. With the Fury FC promotion in Houston, Despaigne won three different fights by first-round knockout in a combined 19 seconds. That earned him a ticket past Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) and right into the big show.

Obviously, given his native country in Miami, the promotion has designed the softest possible landing spot: Josh Parisian's 2-4 UFC record. Parisian's two triumphs came via a sloppy decision against Roque Martinez (0-3 UFC) and a fatigue-propelled win over Alan Baudot (0-3 UFC) in a fight where Baudot had him on the ropes. Between a 41% striking D and -0.27 SSR, Parisian is incredibly hittable. Some have opted for exploiting his 46% takedown defense as the path of least resistance, though.

Parisian's one hallmark trait has been durability thus far, having yet to surrender a knockout at distance in eight UFC-affiliated appearances. That is going to be put to the test against the sledgehammer of a debutant, and context clues imply that UFC themselves aren't projecting him to fair too well.

Betting Verdict

• Despaigne's first-round knockout prop is -150. I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the show without money on it.

DFS Verdict

• To me, Despaigne ($21) has to be the best MVP candidate on the card when favored for 100-plus fantasy points. While there's a chance it goes totally bottoms up at this level, all of the context clues point in his direction with bonafide data that Parisian is a knockout waiting to happen.

Michel Pereira vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Though I wasn't extremely fond of my model's verdict here, it has sat well examining some of the dynamics of this matchup.

I expected to like Michel Pereira to win, but that's why I have the model. On paper, Pereira's got a pretty clear path to victory if he wrestles. He's posted 1.56 takedown attempts per 15 minutes with 55% accuracy, and Michal Oleksiejczuk's 48% takedown defense is his true weakness. Yet, there is far more to this fight than that.

A bulk of Pereira's sample came at 170 pounds, and we didn't get much of a 185-pound sample after it took him just 66 seconds to blast out one-dimensional grappler Andre Petroski. That path won't be readily available here between Oleksiejczuk's 62% striking defense and career-long streak without a knockout loss. I have a hard time envisioning Pereira's 0.52% knockdown rate -- mostly at welterweight -- being the first.

On the flip side, "Demolidor" Pereira is known for a fight IQ mistake or two, and Oleksiejczuk's 1.72% knockdown rate is the best on the 185-pound roster for any fighter with at least 10 appearances. The former 205-pounder has hammers, and yes, these two have indeed fought in UFC as much as 35 pounds apart.

That size and strength disadvantage really hurts Pereira in the places where he could finish this fight. With the finishing danger behind a +126 price tag, I actually arrived in the same spot as my algorithm.

Betting Verdict

• My model still favors Pereira to win 54.3% of the time behind his wrestling, but It's actually giving Oleksiejczuk a higher percentage chance (34.0%) to win via finish than the Brazilian (20.0%). This climbing number made this a 'dog-or-pass spot for me.
• I've got the fight at 54.0% likely to end early. The real source of value here? Oleksiejczuk's knockout prop (+260) is coming back at +195 in the model.

DFS Verdict

• The wide moneylines throughout the card left Pereira ($17) in the upper mid-range, so a decision win wouldn't end your night. I'd still just prefer taking the chance that Oleksiejczuk ($13) finds yet another fight-ending punch. He's met or topped 109 FanDuel points in four straight wins.

Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins

Light Heavyweight (205 Pounds)

This matchup was initially made in October, but it'll finally come home to roost in the first week of March.

Ion Cutelaba is must-see TV, and I don't anticipate that this fight with Philipe Lins will be any different. "The Hulk" has seen 11 of his 14 UFC fights end inside the distance, and his activity level is off the charts. Cutelaba attempts 10.77 significant strikes per minute, landing 46% of them. He also attempts 8.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with an efficient 58% success rate. That's 135-pound activity at 205 pounds; I just don't get how he does it.

The drawback? Cutelaba's 48% striking D has lost him three fights by KO, and he's been submitted four times. Luckily, Lins' zero career UFC submission attempts help cool any potential trouble with the latter.

However, I have to tip my hat to the 38-year-old Brazilian's late-career resurgence. Lins flamed out of heavyweight with an 0-2 record before committing to better nutrition to make 205, and he's won three straight fights. It's been his wrestling (five takedowns in three light heavyweight fights) that has largely made the difference.

I just see this as a nightmare matchup for him, though. Lins' 44% striking D is even lower than the younger Cutelaba's in a firefight, and the one thing Cutelaba does well defensively is stopping wrestling advances (77% takedown D). There appears to be a huge speed and activity discrepancy in the Moldovan's favor, and I see the -134 moneyline odds behind him here as a value.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Cutelaba as 60.2% likely to win this one, implying -150 odds. It's one of the better values on the card if trusting it.
• On paper, this fight has two guys without a career submission attempt and two knockdown rates below 0.60%. It's frightening to be this much higher than the mark with the model assigning 71.3% odds for the fight to go the distance, but the ingredients for a finish aren't really here.
  • With that case, over 1.5 rounds (+112) is another favorite of mine.

DFS Verdict

• Though I'm obviously much lower on this fight in DFS than most will be (given the under 1.5 rounds line at -142), Cutelaba ($17) is still a piece I feel solid about. My feelings about his win equity offset those of his environment.
  • I absolutely feel that if one of the two ends the fight early, it's the younger, more dynamic athlete.

Kyler Phillips vs. Pedro Munhoz

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

Sirens go off immediately around the moneyline of this fight.

Pedro Munhoz is a hard guy to lay -235 against when he's been to a decision in seven straight completed fights. The randomness of MMA judging could nab you above all else. Add in his solid 56% striking and 82% takedown defense marks, and Kyler Phillips will have his work cut out for him to make a statement in this fight.

However, the Brazilian "Young Punisher" is 2-5 in those bouts and now sits at 37 years old in a division predicted on speed. Behind a poor 43% striking and 19% takedown accuracy, he's been unable to land his own efficient offense to make his durability count, resigning most of his fights into tightly contested crawls.

Phillips will only exacerbate that issue. "The Matrix" has lived up to his nickname with a 61% striking and 70% takedown D that's now been tested by a top-10 bantamweight (Song Yadong) and six-time UFC winner (Raoni Barcelos). Winning both of those bouts has propelled him to this opportunity inside the 135-pound rankings.

He's just the significantly better offensive fighter in this one, landing nearly three takedowns per 15 minutes with a good mark of significant strikes per minute (5.36). His 0.71% knockdown rate is also high enough to merit attention.

Other than recent level of competition, Phillips checks every box in my model this week. With his odds not being poor by any means, he's actually the largest favorite I modeled on the entire card.

Betting Verdict

• With a model designed to punish favorites in fights projected to go the distance, I'm still forecasting Phillips to win this fight 67.5% of the time. The offense here isn't close.
• The model also agrees that this fight goes the distance 61.4% of the time, but I'm actually showing value on Phillips' inside-the-distance prop. It's +390 on FanDuel, and I've got it at +220.

DFS Verdict

• Phillips ($20) has the skills and efficiency I look for in an MVP candidate if this matchup wasn't so difficult. He's in the mix, yet I'd point to Almabayev and Despaigne as better options.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

Lightweight (155 Pounds)

I don't understand the line on this fight given judging's current emphasis on damage and striking offense over positional control.

With -280 odds to go the distance, Matuesz Gamrot and Rafael Dos Anjos should be in a tight war that they're both familiar with inside the lightweight rankings. Dos Anjos has one early win in his last seven fights, and Gamrot went the distance in three straight before his last fight ended early due to his opponent's injury.

Gamrot is an elite chain wrestler with great cardio, posting 14.53 takedown attempts per 15 minutes and converting 30% of those. Five-round fights favor his grueling style, but he's shown some issues at distance. In addition to a -0.20 SSR, Gamrot was dropped in three straight fights before his last shortened effort.

At 39 years old, I don't know how potent of a knockdown threat Dos Anjos is at this stage, but he's the better striker with a +0.33 SSR that has stood the test of a 21-13 UFC career. Dos Anjos' failed attempts at 170 pounds have hurt the former champion's peripheral stats, but he's stuffed 7 of the last 10 takedown attempts he's faced at 155 pounds.

I think most bettors are headed to the window fixating on Dos Anjos' poor wrestling defense at 170 pounds and knowing Gamrot's style, but the data actually still backs up the claim he could have plenty of success defending in this fight. Plus, Gamrot's style eases concerns about chin attrition at his advanced age.

I'm not sure I'd turn against "Gamer" in a straight pick setting, but this is strictly a 'dog-or-pass environment in betting circles.

Betting Verdict

• I believe my model's assessment of this fight is more accurate than oddsmakers'. I've got Gamrot at 54.1% likely to win in a fight 77.7% likely to see its full distance.
  • When Dos Anjos is 61.8% likely to win the striking differential (per the model), it's hard to not love a dart at RDA's +330 moneyline as MMA judging shifts dramatically favor striking output.

DFS Verdict

• Gamrot's tendency to head to decisions inside the rankings makes this decision extremely easy. Rather than his $21 salary, Dos Anjos ($9) is a decent punt that FanDuel is giving -280 odds to see all 15 minutes and score fantasy points.

Maycee Barber vs. Katlyn Cerminara

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Is "The Future" now? This fight will go a long way to answering that question.

Out of nowhere, 25-year-old Maycee Barber made an emphatic statement last June. She violently finished Amanda Ribas (7-3 UFC) with elbows to snap a six-fight streak of going to full distance in ugly slogs. Barber broke onto the UFC-affiliated scene with four straight knockouts, but a January 2020 ACL tear seemed to take steam out of her run until that point.

Overall, Barber's +1.88 SSR is a great sign, and she lands a quality 52% of her significant strikes. Her physicality might be a bit undersold by just 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I believe most intriguing for her is this matchup. Barber's 45% takedown D has historically been her undoing, but Katlyn Cerminara lands just 0.27 per 15 minutes. She basically doesn't wrestle at all.

"The Blonde Fighter" formerly carried the surname "Chookagian" amidst a run that even culminated in a title shot, so she's no newcomer. Cerminara's pace (13.50 significant strikes attempted per minute) is excellent, but landing just 34% of those is a problem that's led to her notoriously close decisions. A 54% takedown D has also been her undoing against decent grapplers -- a profile I'd say Barber meets.

With Cerminara now at 35 and dealing with substantial personal issues during a long layoff dating back to October 2022, I'm just not sure what offensive challenge she presents Barber other than squeaking by a tight decision. No thanks.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Barber projected to win 60.1% of the time. That doesn't show value relative to her moneyline, but Barber's decision prop (+105) is interesting when I've got that at -115 (53.4% implied).
• Part of the reason Barber's points prop is so high? I'm also showing this fight 91.7% likely to go the distance. The -280 odds on FanDuel are similarly convincing.

DFS Verdict

• You could argue for a fade of this fight entirely in DFS. Barber ($18) carries a high salary in a fight projected to go its full length, but Cerminara ($11), now in the worst form of her career, hasn't topped 100 FanDuel points in any of her 11 UFC wins.

Jailton Almeida vs. Curtis Blaydes

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

It's not a small thing when the favorite changes in a UFC fight, and it's happened three times this week in this close bout of heavyweight grapplers.

I'm not even sure if Jailton Almeida is a true heavyweight after a 205-pound DWCS debut, but he's kept winning and dominating this division, so I wouldn't leave, either. Almeida's elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu has led to 5.14 takedowns and 2.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes in a division where most sluggers are totally unskilled in that area. Going 25 minutes with UFC's knockout king, Derrick Lewis, wasn't a bad testament to his durability despite a 43% striking D that's otherwise worrisome.

Curtis Blaydes has been doing that type of thing much longer. He's scored 5.93 takedowns per 15 with 53% accuracy, but it's truly American wrestling without a single UFC submission attempt to his name. Blaydes, though, appears to have more of a well-rounded nature as a striker with a +1.67 SSR and a standing knockout just two fights ago.

It makes for a battle where Blaydes will be in an unfamiliar position. Instead of searching for takedowns, he'll likely try to defend them -- and he's done so poorly historically at a 33% rate. If he's able to stuff Almeida's efforts, his power and superior striking should lead to a pretty convincing knockout, but that's a huge "if" given historical tendencies in this fight.

Blaydes has just two career fights against guys averaging more than 0.5 sub attempts per 15 minutes. One was a 15-second battle that ended due to injury, and the other was against a then-39-year-old Aleksei Oleinik in 2017, and he elbowed Oleinik out of there in the second round.

I'll pick Almeida to win not trusting Blaydes to stick to his win condition, but I'm not sure there's betting value here.

Betting Verdict

• My model is largely in tune with the market, picking Almeida to win 55.2% of the time (-125 implied odds). I've got Almeida's submission prop at +200 compared to +380 on FanDuel.
• I'm much higher on this fight potentially going the distance, pegging a 43.9% shot compared to FanDuel's 36.5% implied odds.
  • That's largely due to Blaydes' zero submission danger and Almeida's historical durability. I do have pretty solid faith in both of those being real factors in this fight.

DFS Verdict

• This pick 'em fight comes with near-identical salaries and is -225 to not see all 15 minutes. Pick your combatant in this one, and I'd go with the Brazilian at $16.
  • I've got Almeida winning inside the distance 44.4% of the time compared to 11.8% for Blaydes. That's a huge note in this realm.

Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

If my model gave me the wrong favorite here, I might have had to veto. To me, Petr Yan checks every box in this titanic bantamweight clash.

The former 135-pound champ has had the most bizarre descent from the throne, losing split decisions to Aljamain Sterling and Sean O'Malley before meeting Merab Dvalishvili in a battle where "The Machine" showed he's probably the real guy to beat at 135 pounds by attempting a division-record 49 takedowns to smother Yan's offense before it could even get out of neutral.

In a normal environment, Yan is still one of the best bantamweights in the world. He lands 5.09 significant strikes per minute with excellent accuracy (53%) and defense (59%), has posted 1.71 takedowns per 15 minutes with stellar 52% efficiency, and has an 85% takedown D that usually allows the boxer to operate in his best realm. Even defending an elite clip against Merab, he just wasn't able to score.

At just 1.09 takedown attempts per 15, Song Yadong won't smother Yan in that same fashion. "The Kung Fu Kid" is a striker himself, but his 42% accuracy is significantly lower with a 57% defense that also doesn't match Yan's. His knockdown rate (0.96%) is also a tick behind the Russian's (0.98%).

If not for Yadong's recent knockout binge in three of his past four wins, my model would probably heavily favor Yan here. Yadong has lost the striking differential in two of his last three fights but was able to secure two takedowns to squeak by Chris Gutierrez (7-3-1 UFC).

My model's weight to finishing danger is important, but Yan is 58.1% projected to win the striking differential, has a 64.7% weighted grappling advantage, and also checks better boxes in both age and level of competition. He's never been finished in UFC, either. These close -124 odds are a gift.

Betting Verdict

• I've bet two units on the former champ at -115 myself, and I'd still okay Yan's moneyline (-124) at its current tag. My model has him 53.5% to win, but I'm anecdotally even higher than that when still in his prime.
• Interestingly, I've got the fight at just 58.4% likely to go the distance when FanDuel's odds imply a 70.4% chance.
  • While not totally on board with my model there, the heavier implied odds to go the distance only favor Yan as the more efficient striker to me. That was my key takeaway of both verdicts.

DFS Verdict

• Yan ($16) comes at a low enough salary that I'll target him in flex spots despite marginal scoring upside should this fight hold true to its total. His per-minute pace could still be a decent proposition in that role.

Jack Della Maddalena vs. Gilbert Burns

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

The story of this fight's research? Gilbert Burns is, amazingly, 37 years old. I vividly remember his debut in July 2014 at 27. Time flies.

Burns' battle with Father Time is as crucial as the one with Jack Della Maddalena. In this weight class, "Durinho" has only lost to former champion Kamaru Usman, the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev, and Belal Muhammad amidst the challenger's 13-1 run. It's truly only been to the best of the best, but I've always felt the Brazilian was operating in razor-close margins. His +0.02 SSR is nearly flat, his 35% takedown accuracy is just okay, and we've only one sub from the former World Jiu-Jitsu Champion since the start of 2019.

On paper, Della Maddalena should dominate this fight if his 82% takedown D holds. JDM's striking accuracy (53%) and defense (67%) are significantly higher than Burns' -- all leading into a +2.37 SSR that's superior. It has come against inferior competition, but Randy Brown (12-5 UFC) and Kevin Holland (12-7 UFC) are both long, talented strikers that bit the dust.

JDM hasn't lost since May 2016 and hasn't put a foot out of place in a full-notice bout to this stage. Some are concerned he went to a decision with Bassil Hafez (0-1 UFC) on short notice, but that was a second cut to 170 pounds in a week for the Aussie, and it's not like the decision was close, per a +51 striking differential.

Della Maddalena was -125 on Sunday, and he's soared to -170 on Friday. I've missed the boat on backing his moneyline, but I do pick him to win this fight.

Betting Verdict

• My model, which does have significant weight to level of competition, picks JDM to win 59.2% of the time. I don't love a bet against him with just a small bit of value showing on Burns.
• I've got this fight at 43.6% likely to go all 15 compared to 40.0% implied chances at FanDuel Sportsbook. Della Maddalena-Burns to go the full distance (+150) is my favorite bet in the fight.

DFS Verdict

• Burns' lone loss inside the distance came in a five-rounder against Usman for a title. There's no reason to expect a monstrous showing from Della Maddalena ($18), but I'll mix him into flex spots as a good historical fantasy scorer (4.53 FanDuel points per minute).

Kevin Holland vs. Michael "Venom" Page

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

UFC has a bad habit of letting championship-caliber talent float outside the promotion for cost savings. Look no further than Michael "Venom" Page making his debut at 36.

"MVP" is a talented, creative striker from England that has posted a 17-2 record with Bellator, North America's second-largest MMA promotion. Page never quite broke through for the 170-pound title, losing a split decision in his only afforded opportunity in 2022, but his record speaks to that of someone who is, without a doubt, fit for the world's best promotion.

That's evident here by facing a ranked 170-pounder, Kevin Holland, in his debut. The enigmatic "Big Mouth" is on an active, 9-5 run since the start of 2020 where we've seen multiple weight classes and all of his strengths and weaknesses. Holland is an extremely gifted striker (+1.17 SSR) with a massive, 81" reach for this division. He lost a split decision with a +22 striking differential last time out against the aforementioned Della Maddalena; if not, he'd likely be facing Burns instead of the debuting Page.

However, Holland's weakness has squarely been a 53% takedown D. Page isn't really the type to exploit that, which makes for such an intriguing bout.

Without much concrete data on Page, it's kind of tough to select a winner here for a wager. I will say that the Englishman's 79" reach is a unique test for Holland, who hasn't always used his extremely well at 170 pounds. Plus, Kevin's 51% striking D is awfully low for a matchup against a man who has made a living on unique, signature moments to swing fights in his direction.

Above all, I trust MVP's mentality above Holland's. Big Mouth has the tendency to showboat versus Page's extremely noticeable focus. That's the difference for me in what should be a whale of a battle.

Betting Verdict

• As Page has aged, his decision rate has skyrocketed. Venom had just 3 in his first 18 pro fights; he's now had 3 in his last 5 bouts. I'm in line with this fight to go the full distance (-152) between two skilled, measured combatants.
  • I just don't have a clear betting angle here given Holland's shortcomings and Page's unknown form.

DFS Verdict

• There's a pretty high floor of points on both sides when expecting a decision in a 15-minute striking battle, but Page ($15) comes at the value salary. That's likely the tiebreaker amidst the fight I'm least confident in all night.

Benoit Saint Denis vs. Dustin Poirier

Lightweight (155 Pounds)
Five-Round Co-Main Event

Holding a Benoit Saint Denis championship future for the end of 2024 as I am, this opportunity is all you'd have hoped for.

The French "God of War" has become a UFC star overnight after a highlight kick against veteran Matt Frevola (5-4-1 UFC). He's undefeated at 155 pounds with all wins by early finish, which has helped turn around what were once horrible striking peripherals into a +0.33 SSR. He does his best work offensively grappling, though, landing 4.55 takedowns per 15 minutes with 36% accuracy. He's added two UFC submissions.

There are also intangibles about the former member of France's Special Forces that are hard to put on paper, including absurd toughness and grit. Saint Denis' UFC debut at 170 pounds saw him on the wrong side of a -77 striking differential in just two rounds, but he came back to win the third in a fight most of us begged to be stopped.

Dustin Poirier is the type of win that vaults him into immediate title contention. Even casual UFC fans know Poirier well through his two-fight finishing streak against Conor McGregor, and he's added five other ranked wins to those since the start of 2018. Poirier's fallen title efforts against Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira likely will see "The Diamond" as the best UFC fighter to never hold undisputed gold.

Poirier's well-roundedness is his calling card, adding 1.36 takedowns per 15 minutes on 36% accuracy to a +1.19 SSR. He submitted Michael Chandler juxtaposed to two McGregor KOs. If an area of BSD's game isn't rounded out, Poirier -- at a passable 35 years old -- should still be able to find out.

However, coming off a surprise KO loss to Justin Gaethje (7-4 UFC) for the "BMF" title, Poirier's waning durability could be meeting the freakish French athlete at the wrong time. On the flip side, Saint Denis' competition score in my model is horrible, so while the win over Frevola -- a journeyman -- was solid, it was also no indication alone he's ready to squash a top-five contender.

In a pick 'em, I'd really consider Saint Denis' youth and intangibles. As this line widens, I'd prefer to back the Louisiana native that just has been there, done that, and beaten five different fighters who challenged for a UFC title.

Betting Verdict

• The betting activity on this fight is so peculiar. I'd have expected most to back the known quantity, but Saint Denis' recent highlight has swung this betting line. From his own success, my model has Saint Denis winning 54.0% of the time, but that leaves the betting value squarely on Poirier.
• Especially with a five-round distance, I've got the fight 89.0% likely to end early. That implies -810 odds compared -550 on FanDuel.
  • If anything, that leaves Poirier's inside-the-distance prop (+250) as my key target in the fight.

DFS Verdict

• Saint Denis ($19) comes at a totally fair salary for his own scoring potential, but Poirier ($12) is undervalued, too. This is one of those fights where exposure to both sides in tournament is probably wise; I'd be stunned if the winner wasn't a vital fantasy piece.

Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon "Chito" Vera

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

Some might say Marlon "Chito" Vera isn't deserving of this shot in a vacuum, but a win over the current champion will cut the line in most instances.

Vera's mounting kicks caused Sean O'Malley's leg to give out, leading to a first-round TKO of the previously undefeated "Suga Show" in 2020. O'Malley chalks it up to an injury fluke, but those happen in cage fighting. Since that bout, O'Malley used a split decision win over Petr Yan to leap to a title shot, which he cashed with his most convincing dub yet: a second-round KO of Aljamain Sterling.

"Suga" is a favorite of my model's, landing 7.25 significant strikes with elite 61% accuracy and an equally solid 61% striking D. We've still really yet to see the champion pushed in the grappling department despite a so-so 62% takedown D, and that's not Vera's game, either. There's a reason he sought out the rematch beyond "settling the score".

Therefore, "Chito" should be down for a lengthy chess match at striking distance. Vera lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute with 50% accuracy and a 51% defense, but he's notably never surrendered a knockdown in 22 career bouts. He's as durable as they come and resides in his prime at 31 years old.

"Projected improvement" is the constant theme of handicapping this one. Vera was a step ahead to post a +8 striking differential in their first fight, but I'd also agree O'Malley's improvement from that time as a 25-year-old is undeniable. If nothing else, he's grown into his frame and become unrecognizable from that moment.

Nonetheless, these odds seem to be a bit of an overreaction to O'Malley's win over Sterling. Vera is durable and has lost the striking differential before to come from behind with a surprise shot or two. Both knockdown rates are over 0.95% in this one, so we should see tide-turning moments that will be obvious scoring moments to even casual viewers.

While I'd straight pick O'Malley to win, it's hard for me to not see a competitive effort from the Ecuadorian when he was in the driver's seat just four years ago.

Betting Verdict

• My model has O'Malley at 60.2% likely to win this fight, which amount to roughly -150 odds. I'd say those would be appropriate, but his star power will make it tough to find a "value bet".
  • Interestingly, I'm showing extreme value for a prop of his, though. I've got O'Malley's KO prop at +140 despite Vera's durability. It's +250 on FanDuel.
• The five-round duration could prove paramount for this fight ending early with two power-punchers. I've got those odds at -185 (65.0% implied) while oddsmakers give O'Malley and Vera just -106 odds to end the fight inside the distance.

DFS Verdict

• As a striking war, this fight should be extremely fantasy-relevant -- until it isn't for one guy. O'Malley ($23) is my pick to win and the higher-output fighter but will carry extreme popularity. Vera ($14) might not post as many points per minute but could make them all up in one shot with minimal popularity.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.