UFC 297: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis, taking place at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ontario (Canada) on Saturday.

Malcolm Gordon vs. Jimmy Flick

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

Analytically, these two 125-pounders are the infamous Spider-Man meme. We'll see which one wins out here.

Both Malcolm Gordon and Jimmy Flick land below 2.00 significant strikes per minute with sub-45% striking defenses and sub-10%, wretched takedown defenses. Gordon averages 1.66 takedowns per 15 on 30% accuracy; Flick sits at 1.60 takedowns per 15 minutes on 27% accuracy. The difference might be submission volume, where Gordon averages just 0.80 sub attempts per 15 to Flick's monstrous 4.40.

As far as level of competition, both have beaten just one UFC winner -- and were fortunate to do so. Flick caught a sweet, mid-air triangle to submit Cody Durden (5-3-1 UFC), and Gordon squeaked by Francisco Figueiredo (2-2 UFC) via decision.

However, Gordon leads off this Canadian card in his home country, and I think that may be why he's a slight -- and growing -- favorite in this one, but you're really make a leap to believe he uses a perceived striking advantage to glide away with a win. He's never landed more than 22 distance significant strikes in a single bout, and his last standing knockout came in 2017 against a 3-2 professional.

Flick has never been professionally submitted while Gordon has met that fate twice in UFC. Plus, Flick might be a bit undervalued because his last two fights came against strikers with significant power.

To me, this is a 'dog-or-pass spot on the outcome, but the total could be an intriguing look when both are such poor strikers and feature competent grappling skills.

Betting Verdict

• First and foremost, I don't want to bet this fight personally with two unreliable parties.
• If I was going to, it'd be a strong look toward over 1.5 rounds (-102) with a small hedge on Flick's submission prop (+350). Personally, Gordon hasn't shown enough chops grappling to believe he'll be the first to submit "The Brick".

DFS Verdict

• With an early finish expected, many will rush to this fight in DFS, but Flick ($12) via submission is the only angle that makes any sense to me unless his chin is totally torched. It might be, but I'll take my chances Gordon just doesn't have the striking acumen to make it count.

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Women's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

This might be the most lopsided fight on paper, but that doesn't mean Priscila Cachoeira can't find a way to win it.

"Zombie Girl" has overcome her peripherals to the tune of a 4-5 record at this point. It's perhaps the most fitting nickname in the promotion when she's eaten 7.13 significant strikes per minute to post a -3.01 SSR, wading through the damage to land harder shots of her own. Her 65% takedown D seems to be improving with each fight, but three of her five UFC losses -- including the most recent -- have come via submission due to novice-level grappling skills.

MMA math isn't perfect, but Jasmine Jasudavicius used her grappling skills to mow down Miranda Maverick last June, and Maverick just submitted Cachoeira a month later. That's the reason why she's the card's largest favorite in this fight despite a close loss to Tracy Cortez (6-0 UFC) last September. Plus, Jasudavicius is an Ontario native in her home province.

Jasudavicius has yet to secure a UFC win by finish, but she's bested four of her six UFC foes on the basis of 2.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. As a -0.87 SSR would indicate, the striking is a work in progress, but most of that damage came from a -65 striking differential against budding star and ranked flyweight Natalia Silva.

Jas' durability is the lone question here, and she's never been dropped by a punch in UFC. If that holds true, she figures to walk over Cachoeira in the grappling department, and it's possible she could author her first UFC submission attempt and win by finish in this matchup. She's scored three wins by finish regionally.

Betting Verdict

• These two meet the sample size for my model, and it's unsurprisingly pegging Jasudavicius as a heavy favorite. It's projecting her to win 67.3% of the time, which doesn't show value on the moneyline, but I've got her decision outcome at 60.6% compared to 50.4% implied odds on FanDuel.
  • I am not fully opposed to her submission prop, but without an official attempt in UFC and just one win via submission regionally, it is a bit of a leap to take at shorter-than-expected odds (+480) just because of her opponent.

DFS Verdict

• In this department, you would hope Jasudavicius ($23) secures the early finish, but this fight is -130 to go the distance. The favorites on Saturday aren't a stable bunch, so she's a high-floor flex play, but MVP consideration may not be appropriate.

Yohan Lainesse vs. Sam Patterson

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

A third fight means a third Canadian makes the walk.

Quebec's Yohan Lainesse is the favorite with an actual sample at middleweight, going 1-2 in UFC thus far. However, his three opponents are just 6-6 themselves, so he's not yet cleared the entry-level competition hurdle -- as evidenced by a matchup with Sam Patterson's 0-1 record on the other side here.

Lainesse seemed like one to watch when he started fast -- including a knockdown -- in his debut against Gabe Green, but his gas tank expired to hand Green a second-round KO. Since, he's posted a sloppy decision win over Darian Weeks (0-3 UFC) and was submitted by stud prospect Mike Malott (4-0 UFC), who we'll see later on this card. Lainesse's -1.10 SSR isn't inspiring, but he's shown flashes of well-roundedness with 1.00 takedowns and 0.50 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Most importantly, Lainesse has shown power when Patterson is making his first appearance ever at 170 pounds in the big leagues on Saturday, and the Englishman already has a poor track record defending punches (44% striking defense). He surrendered a knockout in his debut to Yanal Ashmouz (1-1 UFC) in just 75 seconds.

However, Patterson's regional efforts -- including a second-round submission on Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) -- show some hope, and he's not undersized for welterweight at 6'3". It's kind of absurd he could even reach 155 pounds his entire career. His signature attributes include aggressive grappling and phenomenal cardio. Four of his last five stoppages came after the first round from wilting dudes.

I think this is an extremely easy fight to bet. I'll target Lainesse for a first-round finish -- almost certainly a KO -- based on Patterson's poor defense, but these gas tanks are miles apart as the fight progresses. Patterson will be an outstanding live betting opportunity if he makes it out of the first round.

Betting Verdict

• I have a very clear betting strategy to look toward Lainesse's first-round prop (+220) before the fight with a half-unit, and I'll save the other half-unit for a live bet on Patterson's moneyline if the first round ends without a victor.

DFS Verdict

• This is the nerve-wracking part without live betting. Lainesse ($15) has extreme first-round upside with under 1.5 rounds sitting at -142, but should he fail to score a finish, Patterson ($15) likely rallies for a nice FanDuel score himself.

Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana

Women's Strawweight (115 Pounds)

Gillian Robertson was -200 on Monday, but she has steamed to -300 here. Even with an analytical model favoring her opponent, I understand why and agree.

"The Savage" is all over the flyweight record books for submissions and finishes, but the book is out on her. She's a poor striker (-0.61 SSR) that was resigned to do just that in a lopsided loss to the ranked Tabathi Ricci (4-2 UFC) in her second strawweight appearance. Robertson's successful career -- in which she's faced six women who have been in UFC's rankings -- has largely come from exploiting poor defensive grapplers with 2.46 takedowns and 0.90 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

She's the rare woman with an 88.9% finishing rate in UFC -- all subs. Her analytics have been roughed up by excellent competitors that Polyana Viana has rarely faced and certainly hasn't beaten. Viana's four UFC wins have come against fighters that are 6-10 against everyone else.

Level of competition is just one component in my model; it's rarely this wide to a point where it's not useful. Robertson has been given a super favorable draw in her home country considering Viana's 43% takedown defense is actually getting worse by the fight. She's surrendered takedowns on 7 of her last 13 attempts faced.

The real concern for Robertson is getting caught in Viana's patented armbar, which has translated to 2.10 sub attempts per 15 minutes in the box score. There's a reason "Dama De Ferro" hasn't hit that against an accomplished UFC winner, though.

Viana just ceded two easy takedowns and an easy submission via triangle to Iasmin Lucindo (2-1 UFC) just five months ago. Robertson is a significantly more accomplished submission artist. Gillian will lose her fair share of fights to competent strikers with solid takedown D, but that isn't Viana by any stretch.

Betting Verdict

• There is an argument over whether Viana's own submission prowess allows her to survive 15 minutes -- just as she did against Ricci -- but my model has this fight 93.0% likely to end early based on these two's historical finishing rates. Personally, that's a bit overzealous, but this fight is favored to end early (-196) against divisional trends for a reason.
• Overruling my model's verdict on the winner due to extreme level of competition inequity, Robertson's submission prop (+145) will be my one bet from the fight.

DFS Verdict

• Robertson ($21) is a unique archetype in the women's divisions. I have a feeling many will have a hard time going to the flyweight at MVP because of the division's usual decision-heavy nature. "The Savage" is a finisher in a great matchup, though. I think she's the best MVP candidate on the card.

Serhiy Sidey vs. Ramon Tavares

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

There are layers to unpack in this one, which is actually a rematch from a DWCS bout in September 2023.

Refereeing controversy clouded Serhiy Sidey's win over Ramon Tavares that night, but it wasn't Sidey's fault. Sidey landed a right hand to drop Tavares and nearly ended the fight outright before the impatient referee stopped the bout a bit too early. Tavares was given a second chance on the show due to the fiasco, earning a DWCS knockout win of his own in just 29 seconds a few weeks later. We'll settle the score for good in a rematch on Saturday.

In that one, Tavares' analytical efficiency was better in a tiny sample, landing 57% of his strikes to 35% for Sidey. However, they both landed 11 total as Sidey was more active. The drop was important, leading to the second KO loss for Tavares in his last seven fights, but there wasn't much doubt about who was the better striker on a per-minute basis.

There's nothing unusual about the betting markets here. Sidey closed as a -180 favorite in the first fight, and he's bumped to -188 here after a positive result and what was -- at the very least -- a won round before the refereeing fiasco. However, playing the percentages, it's a pretty nice proposition to get the more efficient striker with three professional wins via submission (to Sidey's one) as a +152 underdog.

It's gross and uncomfortable to forget the result of that first fight, but from a value perspective, I think it's the right thing to do. Some might be concerned about Tavares' weight miss on Friday, but I actually think it helps his durability -- the one area I'd believe Sidey would get the best of him.

Betting Verdict

• I will play a half-unit on Tavares' moneyline (+152), which just keeps growing. My entire UFC process is examining per-minute performance over the end results, which can always be a bit fluky. It was born to find value in fights like this.
• Of Tavares' last 10 fights, 8 ended inside the first round. Even if he wins the rematch, it's probably not a lengthy fight.

DFS Verdict

• Under 1.5 rounds sits at -108, so this fight is essential and crucial to get right on the main slate. Sidey ($15) is the conservative target who should be far more popular, but Tavares ($14) could reap great rewards should he pull the upset.

Charles Jourdain vs. Sean Woodson

Men's Featherweight (145 Pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

I would think that the UFC would want to build up Charles Jourdain as one of Canada's most exciting fighters despite his limitations. This is a tough matchup and should be a great scrap, though.

"Air" Jourdain has already made waves with a 6-5-1 UFC record, and this should be an entirely unique challenge for him. Most of the time, fighters are looking to exploit Jourdain's 47% takedown D, but that's not Sean Woodson's game, either. Jourdain's 49% striking accuracy and 58% striking defense are elite, and he's added a sneaky submission game to not only score his most recent two finishes via sub but also survive legendary BJJ red belt Kron Gracie (1-2 UFC) last May.

If anyone takes this fight to the mat, it would be Woodson, who showed a new wrinkle with a career-best four takedowns against Dennis Buzukja (0-2 UFC) last August. However, I don't know how much you want to read into "The Sniper" toying with his food there -- or pretty much his whole career. Woodson's four official UFC wins are 5-8-1 against all other challengers, and his most impressive "W" was over Terrance McKinney (5-3 UFC) on DWCS in a battle of future roster stalwarts.

However, it doesn't take a film guru to see Woodson's boxing ability. He's posted a +1.41 SSR with an 83% takedown D to help him take full advantage of the longest reach on featherweight's roster (78"). That's a nine-inch reach edge over Jourdain, who also has failed to mix in wrestling whatsoever (10% takedown accuracy) his entire UFC career.

I really don't understand how Jourdain covers this betting line with that being the case. He's needed opposing takedowns to get to his solid jiu-jitsu, and Woodson likely won't go there with such distinct physical advantages as a striker. This should be a back-and-forth affair on the feet, but Jourdain is going to have a significantly harder time landing offense with Woodson's chin so far away.

Betting Verdict

• This fight is exactly 50.0% on both sides (when rounded) in my model, leaving the clear value on Woodson as a +160 underdog. That's factoring in level of competition when Jourdain's "advantage" there isn't set in stone. He's lost to most of the tougher guys he's faced.
• Curiously, the model has the fight 83.1% likely to end early. Jourdain's recent submissions explain a lot of that, but I'm not sure those opportunities will present themselves here. If FanDuel is right with -120 odds this fight goes its full length, that heavily favors Woodson's win condition.

DFS Verdict

• I think you can stack this fight with both fighters attempting north of 14 significant strikes per minute. While a fight in a phone booth between elite strikers could be fantasy gold, if it goes the full distance, Woodson ($11) is almost certainly the side you'd want on FanDuel.

Brad Katona vs. Garrett Armfield

Men's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)

In a previous era of UFC, Brad Katona won The Ultimate Fighter, earned a UFC contract, and underwhelmed to a 1-2 record before being let go. After winning TUF again in August, he'll look to start this second tenure on a high note.

Admittedly, "Superman" struggled a bit with Cody Gibson in his last bout, landing just 51% of his significant strikes to Gibson's 61%. He also failed to land either takedown on a clearly improved Gibson -- a 1-4 UFC vet himself. Still, there wasn't much controversy in his win when he clearly landed the more damaging strikes. I'd still peg him as a wrestler despite a striking war in that one, attempting 5.00 takedowns per 15 minutes overall despite the poor accuracy (20%) against brutal competition to this stage.

However, Garrett Armfield is a total wild card entering this one. Armfield looked sensational in a first-round KO of Toshiomi Kazama, but I backed Armfield in that one with Kazama's competition before and during his Road to the UFC stint in Asia being absolutely dreadful. Armfield's sample is this horrible concoction of that squash match and a short-notice fight with David Onama (3-2 UFC) at featherweight where Armfield closed as a +610 underdog and looked every bit of it.

Katona has beaten several UFC winners -- including ranked ones in exhibition bouts -- and has never been finished as a professional. Armfield has beaten zero with two of his three pro losses coming via submission. That's an obvious path for Katona, who has three pro wins via submission and the aforementioned one over Bryce Mitchell (7-2 UFC) in an exhibition bout.

The Ultimate Fighter's viability for future seasons hinges on legitimate success from its winners. The promotion has done Katona a significant favor to give him an inexperienced foe in his home country.

Betting Verdict

• While not giddy to lay -215 with someone I have my questions about, Katona's submission prop (+350) is worth a dart. Even without an official UFC attempt, he's shown his grappling skills plenty regionally, and Armfield's weakest aspect is his grappling.

DFS Verdict

• You start looking around the top of the FanDuel fighter pool, and there aren't a lot of quality favorites with finishing upside. Despite the -156 odds this fight goes the full distance, Katona ($20) has as good of an argument for a finish as any favorite outside of Robertson.

Movsar Evloev vs. Arnold Allen

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

We're onto the main card with ranked featherweights. Can't ask for much more.

Movsar Evloev is the favorite -- in large part due to being 7-0 with UFC and on most "ones to watch" lists in the division. The Russian is a fearsome striker (+1.83 SSR) who primarily operates with traditional sambo-heavy wrestling. He's landed 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes on 50% accuracy, and his jiu-jitsu got a whale of a test from rising Brazilian Diego Lopes (2-1 UFC) on short notice -- but he survived and passed through all four attempts.

Evloev's "drawback" has been a lack of finishing equity. He's gone to a decision in all seven wins, and with just two submission attempts and zero knockdowns, it's not like he's really flirted with one often. Still, it's hard to critique his 61% striking defense and 71% takedown defense that largely hasn't put a foot out of place.

Similarly, England's Arnold Allen doesn't have much to critique. He suffered his first and only setback in 11 UFC fights last time out against the legendary Max Holloway, which did nothing but eliminate "Almighty" from immediate title contention. Allen's low striking volume (3.34 significant strikes landed per minute) caught up to him in that one.

Featherweight has a ton of strikers, so Allen's high-level takedown defense is an incomplete sample. Most of the 76% mark he has on paper was a nine-for-nine performance defending Nik Lentz's advances, but Allen surrendered 12 takedowns in his first four UFC fights. Allen's competitive level is also quite a bit better, having faced four ranked UFC fighters to Evloev's one.

I'm technically showing value on Allen to win this fight at anything greater than +150, but it should be a razor-thin margin with few signature moments. I don't mind a dart on Triple-A, but the true takeaway from this fight is to expect it to go the full distance. These are featherweight title dark horses with superb defensive skills.

Betting Verdict

• As mentioned, I've got Movsar at 60.0% to win and 48.5% likely to win via decision. At -120, I'm showing no value on that prop -- or any of his. This fight is Allen (+156) or pass with a significant lean toward the latter.
• Unsurprisingly, Evloev's decision-only history has this fight modeled at 72.4% to go the full distance. Allen has also never been professionally finished. A finish by either would be a gigantic upset. The fight at -300 to go all 15 minutes is one of my favorite parlay pieces on the card.

DFS Verdict

• A win is a win given the poor quality of favorites on the card, but there's only a certain level of dominance that Evloev ($18) could amass in a decision to burn those who fade him. Allen, after not having been taken down in six years, isn't exactly a friendly matchup, either.

Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Middleweight (185 Pounds)

Chris Curtis' comeback coming against a native Canadian is delightful matchmaking.

The revenge narrative here would be Curtis' dismal trip to Canada last summer, which was a no contest due to a fairly dirty headbutt by Nassourdine Imavov. However, that result was actually fortunate considering Curtis posted a -31 striking differential and was down two rounds at a minimum.

"The Action Man" is one of the oddest fighters I've modeled or handicapped. Almost like a boxer, he loses minutes to get reads, but these fights are too violent and short to take damage (6.30 significant strikes absorbed per minute) as he does despite a decent 54% striking D. Curtis' fights are almost exclusively at distance; he's yet to attempt a UFC takedown, and his 92% takedown defense might be the best in the division.

To me, Marc-Andre Barriault is a perfect opponent for him, because if Curtis is unable to pick up the pace and the fight remains, "The Powerbar" figures to melt him. Barriault's 5.95 significant strikes landed per minute at 47% accuracy is a really grueling pace at 185 pounds, and the striker does also have a submission win to his name should things hit the mat.

Barriault's shortcoming has been a 67% takedown D in spots, so he's likely thrilled Curtis will keep things standing in his home country.

My model and I just don't understand this line. Curtis is now 36 years old and has posted a negative striking differential in five of his last seven fights, so laying -188 with him is borderline insane. Barriault did surrender a 16-second knockout to Chidi Njokuani (2-3 UFC) in 2022, so there are some durability and/or chin concerns, but Curtis' 0.89% knockdown rate isn't overwhelming.

In his home country, I love Barriault as a 'dog in this fight. He'll pretty comfortably be projected to win minutes as most of Action Man's prior foes have.

Betting Verdict

• My model, even when tipping the level of competition to Curtis, has Barriault at -245 to win this one. It's a projected efficiency model, and it's not close on a per-minute basis. Curtis' 100% knockdown-to-knockout ratio won't last forever, either. His power might be a tinge overrated.
• I've got this fight as 59.9% likely to go the full distance, which would also significantly favor MAB as the point-earner.

DFS Verdict

• Curtis' fantasy potential is entirely packed into his finishing equity. If not, the target from this one is squarely Barriault ($13) in a fight -128 to go the full distance.

Mike Malott vs. Neil Magny

Welterweight (170 Pounds)

Neil Magny hasn't been a top-15 welterweight in a while, and UFC has been using him to prop up prospects in recent matchups. This one is no different.

Magny was embarrassed by Ian Garry (-64 striking differential) following a tight decision win over Phil Rowe with a -5 striking differential. Magny's last ranked win came in May 2021, and at 36 years old, the drop in results isn't a coincidence. However, the Denver native will always be in professional shape with an awkward-to-fight 80" reach. He can also wrestle, averaging 2.22 takedowns per 15 on 40% accuracy throughout his career.

"The Haitian Sensation" will ostensibly "fraud check" Canadian prospect Mike Malott in this bout, and there are so many aspects to check that this is far from a forgone conclusion. After all, Malott failed to defend the only career takedown attempt he's faced in four fights, so the red flag for an upset already exists there. However, Team Alpha Male's blue-chip prospect is a heavy favorite for a reason.

Malott has yet to fight a seventh full minute in his career due to dominant wins. He's posted a solid +1.14 SSR on the feet, adding 1.5 submission attempts per 15 as the skill that has stolen the show. He's clearly needed a step up in competition; his prior four UFC-affiliated opponents are just 9-11 in career bouts.

Is Magny too far of a step up? It's hard to feel that way when Rowe had a career-long -32 striking differential before outstriking and nearly beating Magny. UFC age-related declines aren't linear and can often be steep.

As someone who backed Magny against Garry, the usual tools that you could count on him for -- like range management, cardio, and cage control -- were entirely gone. This matchup wasn't made in Malott's home country with the intention of stopping his meteoric rise, and I'm not sure what the veteran could do to win this bout short of Malott's takedown D -- which usually correlates well with offensive grappling -- being impossibly poor.

Betting Verdict

• Malott's tiny sample made this fight ineligible for modeling, but there really isn't a high chance it would have favored Magny. Malott's two analytical "weaknesses" are the sample takedown D sample and a so-so 42% striking accuracy. Everything else -- including age -- leans heavily in his favor.
• Magny has been a solid bet for an over, going over 2.5 total rounds in 11 of his last 12 bouts. On Saturday, over 2.5 rounds is +150 due to Malott's finishing binge against low-level competition. I'd sooner side with the plus money.

DFS Verdict

• Malott ($22) might disappoint here if the veteran finds a way to hang on, but this card has few (no?) favorites with elite fantasy potential. He's in the MVP mix by default, but don't expect his lifetime average for FanDuel points (116.6) considering the much stronger opponent.

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Raquel Pennington

Women's Bantamweight (135 Pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

Amanda Nunes' retirement -- fresh off a dominant win -- sent shockwaves through the UFC community. These two will look to start the post-Nunes era with the belt.

Mayra Bueno Silva is undoubtedly who the UFC would want to win this fight between her quotable personality and more dynamic style, but that doesn't decide fights. Bueno Silva cinched a submission against divisional legend Holly Holm in her last bout -- only for it to get officially waived out for a failed drug test. It's wild she's still in title position, but Nunes' retirement left promoters fairly desperate.

MBS is a striker as her base with excellent grappling. Her 54% striking accuracy and 57% striking defense are both excellent on paper, and her -0.55 SSR is a bit misleading when, in the more talented flyweight division, Bueno Silva's worst performance as a pro came in the form of a -43 striking differential against Manon Fiorot (6-0 UFC). Fiorot is closing in on the 125-pound belt, so that performance can be forgiven a bit. "Sheetara" is also a submission ace, attempting 1.6 per 15 minutes and securing one in five of her six victories.

On the other side, she'll face Raquel Pennington on a five-fight winning streak. "Rocky" went to a split decision with Ketlen Vieira in her last bout, but on paper, it was a clear Pennington dub with a +17 striking differential. At just 0.93 takedowns per 15 minutes, she's actually the higher-volume wrestler of these two -- but that's not saying much. Her 63% takedown D would otherwise be there for the taking, sitting at 50% in her last five fights.

Attempting just 0.70 takedowns per 15, I just don't believe Bueno Silva will, and that makes this fight appear to be a striking match to me. It also figures to be tight with few signature moments; in 27 combined UFC bouts, neither of these two fighters have allowed or scored a knockdown.

In addition to Bueno Silva's standing -- pretty clearly -- as the more dynamic finisher and athlete, fighters 35 or older (Pennington) are 3-31-1 in the last 35 UFC title fights when facing someone younger than 35 (Bueno Silva). Father Time is undefeated in this sport, adding to the obstacles that Pennington will face having fought just once since April 2022.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Pennington pegged as a -145 favorite, but that's on the basis of a "wrestling advantage" that would put her right in the grasp of Bueno Silva's elite grappling game. Especially looking at the age trend, I'll pass on a side while picking Bueno Silva to win.
• Curiously, Bueno Silva's finish-or-bust mentality has this modeled as 56.6% to end early. Pennington also has a recent submission, and it is a projected striking match in UFC's heaviest weight class on the women's side. Stranger things have happened despite -108 odds to go the distance on FanDuel.

DFS Verdict

• Pennington is as durable as they come, but the five-round buffer to accrue volume helps Bueno Silva's argument in DFS with a modest pace (7.70 significant strikes attempted per minute). She's also finished five of her six UFC wins, bucking this division's historical trends in a huge way.

Sean Strickland vs. Dricus Du Plessis

Middleweight (185 Pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

The bad blood in this fight boiled into a public skirmish, but we'll see a legal bout between the two on Saturday.

Sean Strickland's breakthrough win as a massive underdog against Israel Adesanya last year was a shock to some -- but not all. Strickland's stardom was pretty inevitable. In a middleweight division largely built on ugly wrestling, Strickland's 14.20 significant strikes attempted per minute are a unique pace that wilts most. Strickland's patented "Philly Shell" defense is also one of one in the division, resulting in a sparkling 63% striking D on paper. He's paired it with an excellent 83% takedown D, too.

However, it's not like Strickland is unbeatable. The trade-off is a 0.35% knockdown rate that isn't very frightening, and he's landed just two takedowns in his last six fights by his own design due to bravado. Strickland was KO'd by former divisional champ Alex Pereira in 2022, and he lost a tight decision to Jared Cannonier just 13 months ago.

Therefore, this betting line is pretty tight as we've yet to see Dricus Du Plessis lose in the octagon. Du Plessis, as a sizable underdog, demolished Robert Whittaker to earn what he thought was his chance to beat Adesanya, but Du Plessis suffered an injury, and Strickland -- in his place -- got the job done anyway.

Du Plessis' style is simply just a car crash. He lands 6.95 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, and he's added 2.72 takedowns per 15 minutes with phenomenal 50% accuracy in that department. He's also posted a UFC win by submission (neck crank) and 1.1 sub attempts per 15.

Strickland used to compete at 170 pounds in UFC, so there's an enormous power and strength difference in these frames. Du Plessis made quick work of Whittaker, a former divisional champ that had been finished just once in his prior 15 fights. Strickland had a huge moment early against Izzy but, as he's prone to do, needed all five rounds to earn the decision nod.

Conventional wisdom here would say that Du Plessis starts fast -- per usual -- and Strickland has more success later in this fight, but the problem with that line of thinking is that Du Plessis has even yet to lose a third round with "cardio issues". Odd breathing issues might make him appear tired and gasping for air, but his effectiveness hasn't waned.

We know Strickland's shortcomings from machismo to power. Du Plessis hasn't shown one yet. While I tip my cap to Strickland for ridding the division of its sparring-match-enducing czar, Adesanya was a unique, striking-oriented challenge that a great boxer like Strickland had the perfect tools to stop.

The South African underdog is a physical beast -- and one I won't wager against paths to failure become evident.

Betting Verdict

• On the back of volume and finishing danger, my model has Du Plessis as 66.2% likely to win this fight. Anecdotally, I'd also favor him at the very least, so his -102 betting odds show some value.
• Unsurprisingly, the model also believes this fight ends early 74.8% of the time. That prognosis significantly favors Du Plessis as the larger, more dynamic athlete, but his expiring cardio could also be this fight's beginning of its end.

DFS Verdict

• This is an easy fight in this realm. Strickland ($18) likely wins and piles on late, but Du Plessis ($17) has nearly all of this one's early finishing equity. Don't stack this one; pick a winner and pray for their win condition.

Looking for the latest UFC odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to see the lines for all upcoming fights.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.