If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 12 fights at UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington, taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday.

Martin Buday vs. Shamil Gaziev

Heavyweight (265 Pounds)

Khabib Nurmagomedov's camp is seemingly trying to inject a contender into every men's division, and it was completed with Shamil Gaziev joining the heavyweight roster on this season of Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS).

Gaziev flattened Greg Velasco by sending him to the canvas and jumping right on a choke, and that sort of multi-faceted approach could lead to a lot of wins at heavyweight where many fighters are so one-dimensional. Gaziev's analytics are pretty hilarious, landing all four significant strike attempts before the sub, but I have a lot of confidence he'll be a multi-time UFC winner.

However, that's not the threshold to win here when Martin Buday is 5-0 through his UFC-affiliated bouts so far. Buday's record aside, I've got concerns when he needed three straight decisions to best entry-level heavyweights, and his last fight seems to be his best effort with a first-round win via kimura, but Josh Parisian (2-4 UFC) has noted holes on the ground at this point.

I can't ultimately shake Buday's third UFC fight where he amassed a -52 striking differential against Lukasz Brezski (0-3 UFC) when Brezski has been demolished by his other two competitors. I still don't believe Buday has faced an opponent who could have beaten him given his average -245 pre-fight odds before this weekend's bout.

Gaziev absolutely can. His power and wrestling acumen are a rare combo at heavyweight, but I am concerned about his gas tank that has a tendency to badly fade. I still see this bout closer to a pick 'em, leaving value on the +110 'dog.

Betting Verdict

• I am not sure I'll even get to the window with Gaziev at this number, but Buday's "perfect" UFC start has plenty of cracks and questions. I don't know how you comfortably favor him in this spot.
• Gaziev's poor gas tank and 90.9% pro finishing rate are why this fight is -172 to see an early stoppage. I totally agree with that sentiment.

DFS Verdict

• Expecting an early finish of some sort, Buday ($15) is a dangerous fade as a favorite, but Gaziev ($14) has early-finish upside himself as the value play. I have the most confidence in this fight of any prelim that we'll get a fantasy-relevant result.

Andre Fili vs. Lucas Almeida

Featherweight (145 Pounds)

While bantamweight and lightweight often get the shine, featherweight's depth is incredibly present with Andre Fili's resumé, too.

Fili is 10-9 in UFC, but even when looking at his last three losses, he hasn't suffered a setback to an opponent with a winning percentage below 70%. He's not a ranked guy, but he's also incredibly skilled in all areas. There's no doubt that Fili is better as a wrestler, averaging 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes with excellent 47% accuracy, than he is as a striker (-0.30 SSR). However, I wouldn't call him a terrible kickboxer; it's just his 37% accuracy that makes it hard for him to win minutes.

Lucas Almeida is matched with the exact right opponent against him. Almeida seemed like a diamond in the rough after scoring a third-round knockout of Mike Trizano (3-3 UFC) on short notice in his official debut, but he was violently humbled by Pat Sabatini (5-2 UFC), who controlled all but 27 seconds of their fight that extended into the second round before Sabatini found the sub.

If Almeida's 40% takedown defense is indeed a critical issue here, Fili should coast to a win. Sabatini's takedown efficiency (42%) is actually worse than Fili's 47% against lesser competition. However, Almeida has power that could easily bring Fili's chin issues and poor 51% striking D into the mix.

It wasn't just Almeida's result against Sabatini that provides a clear path. In addition to being hopeless on the ground, Almeida's 45% striking D is poor when Fili has three UFC wins by standing KO. There's a lot of red flags on the underdog that don't really merit a dart throw.

Betting Verdict

• Knowing Fili as well as I do, his -178 moneyline feels too good to be true. However, if you don't factor in strength of schedule, he's 2-4 with a no contest in his last six fights. You probably shouldn't make this moneyline wider despite the veteran's obvious advantages.
• Fili's lack of submission volume (only four career attempts) does significantly reduce his chances of a finish if we get a wrestling-heavy approach, but I'd still lean for this fight to not go the distance (-196).

DFS Verdict

• In 15 fights since the start of 2016, Fili ($15) has eclipsed 100 FanDuel points just once. Still, if there was an opponent due for a ceiling effort, it's Almeida's poor defense in both areas. FanDuel did well to reduce both salaries in this fight; I don't see its scoring expectations as super high.

Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Cody Durden

Men's Flyweight (125 Pounds)

I simply don't understand the line on this fight.

Cody Durden has been an underdog in six of his seven UFC fights, but he's amassed a 4-2-1 record in that position to find the flyweight rankings. He's a handful averaging 5.41 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50% accuracy, and his 80% takedown D has shut down his opponents' wrestling, too.

This is a grappling delight to see him face Tagir Ulanbekov. Khabib Nurmagomedov's understudy averages 3.81 takedowns per 15 minutes with 42% accuracy himself, but his defense (61%) hasn't been quite as sharp. That's how he lost to Tim Elliott in March 2022, but he rebounded earlier this year with a first-round guillotine choke against Nate Maness (4-2 UFC).

There's a tilting result written all over this one. If you side with Ulanbekov, his takedown D is a substantial issue when Durden has effectively and dominantly controlled at least 49% of each of his last three fights. However, Durden has been susceptible to cheeky early submission losses against Mohammad Mokaev (5-0 UFC) and Jimmy Flick (1-3 UFC). Tagir is coming off a fluke submission, so you shouldn't write him off for another.

Coming off surviving three Jake Hadley submission attempts, I see Durden's improvements as worthy of more credit than he's getting to win. My model has this nearly as a pick 'em, which is where I'd anecdotally place it, as well.

Betting Verdict

• The model grades Durden as 53.1% likely to win the distance striking battle and 69.9% likely to lead the fight in takedowns. The one flaw? Ulabenkov is 69.2% projected to lead the fight in submission attempts. Put it all together, and Durden wins 51.1% of the time, according to the model. There's value -- but also clear risk -- on Durden's moneyline (+146).
• Ulanbekov's last fight bucked a three-fight decision streak to begin his career. With that in mind, the model sees the fight as 76.3% likely to go the full distance.

DFS Verdict

• I've badly struggled with Ulanbekov in this realm in friendlier matchups. He's averaged just 83.6 FanDuel points in his three wins. I see him as truly submission-or-bust to score on FanDuel for a $15 salary.
• With Durden ($14) having historical issues there and finishing concerns, I wouldn't blame anyone for turning to Tagir's side and am still undetermined on this one.

Casey O'Neill vs. Ariane Lipski

Women's Flyweight (125 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

In my personal record book, Casey O'Neill is still undefeated. She got smokescreened in March.

Jennifer Maia attempted 85 more strikes than O'Neill, but Casey was the better, more efficient fighter. She landed 51% of her significant strikes to Maia's 41%, which was even better than a win against a former title challenger when my pre-fight concern was her efficiency.

"King" Casey has now landed an absurd 8.77 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, and she's added 1.96 takedowns per 15 minutes with an excellent 42% accuracy. She's pound-for-pound one of my model's best fighters in UFC when also combining her plus striking (58%) and takedown (71%) defense. There's not a flaw on paper, and this is now including a ranked opponent.

It'll be a tough task for Ariane Lipski, but the fighter now training with Amanda Nunes deserves consideration given her marked recent improvement. Against a pair of multi-time UFC winners, Lipski scored two decision wins with a combined +33 striking differential, and she's corrected early-career grappling woes by stuffing all 19 takedown attempts she faced from them.

Two years ago, I'd have given Lipski no chance because she couldn't stop O'Neill's wrestling threat, but now, her issue will just be keeping pace offensively. O'Neill is putting out 15.95 significant strikes per minute and landing over half of them when Lipski paces at just 10.10 historically with a poor striking accuracy (39%) that hasn't eclipsed 50% in either of her recent fights.

To me (and my model), the loss last time out has O'Neill discounted in a fight where she's the more potent, reliable fighter wherever this one goes. Lipski has improved -- but not to the extent I'd pick her to beat my nominee as a potential future 125-pound champ.

Betting Verdict

• My model has O'Neill at -205 to win this fight versus her -192 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. I see her as one of my favorite parlay pieces on the card when her myriad of ways to win the fight by decision, knockout, and submission are all incredibly present. Prop betting could be futile.
• I've got this fight at 61.7% likely to go the distance, which isn't too far off the -186 odds at FanDuel. With two strikers tossing out plenty of volume, this was an easy choice for my fight of the night.

DFS Verdict

• When fighters like O'Neill ($16) make an appearance, they deserve your attention. You should have a specific reason why her offensive stats wouldn't translate to this matchup, and I don't when they did against Maia. She's a top-shelf play on the card.
• Lipski ($12) should stick around to score points on the feet, but I'm a bit trepidatious. She might wilt under King Casey's pressure.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Brian Kelleher

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

I couldn't imagine telling someone in 2017 that this fight would exist.

At that time, Cody Garbrandt was the 135-pound champion of the world, and Brian Kelleher was waffling to a 3-3 UFC start that didn't bode well for long-term roster security. Now, Garbrandt's decline has them matched up in 2023.

It was Cody's 2.53% knockdown rate and mammoth power that earned him a title shot, which he won with a pair of drops against Dominick Cruz, but modern bantamweights figured out how to best him. "No Love" lands just 3.00 significant strikes per minute with 40% accuracy, so they simply baited him into a firefight where he was less accurate. That's how Garbrandt has lost five of his last seven, including four by KO, despite excellent striking defense (61%) and takedown defense (78%) marks that closer resemble a champion.

Despite the nickname "Boom," Kelleher hasn't been a regular for punching power in UFC. His last of two knockouts (in 15 career bouts) came in May 2020. Kelleher will be thrilled to meet Garbrandt (zero career submission attempts) after losing consecutive fights by first-round submission, but he may lack the secret sauce that's been needed to defeat Cody. That's also no coincidence as he's now 37 years old; the power goes first.

Garbrandt's mental decline made its way to the box score in his last bout. He attempted just 33 significant strikes in 15 minutes against Trevin Jones (1-4 UFC), which is a disastrously low number when he was landing 78% of them. Not only is Kelleher's 54% striking D better than Jones' (39%), but Kelleher also brings the only career submission attempts and wins into this bout.

I can't trust the favorite to cover a -192 price when he doesn't even believe in himself at present.

Betting Verdict

• I rejected my model's result in this fight at first, but it has Kelleher at 47.4% to win compared to the 39.4% implied odds at FanDuel.
• Interestingly, it's pegging this fight at 55.0% likely to go the distance, leading to Kelleher's points prop (+550) showing the most value of any individual result. The model has it at +205.

DFS Verdict

• I wanted to target Garbrandt ($19) for a potential knockout, but Kelleher ($11) has never ceded one amidst all of Cody's other issues. I just don't know how he pays off this daily fantasy salary with no career submission upside to this stage, either.

Irene Aldana vs. Karol Rosa

Women's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Women's 135 has been a nightmare where the elite level of competition -- like Amanda Nunes or Holly Holm -- have been so much better than all others that we don't know how to rank them. Irene Aldana is a perfect example.

Aldana's foray into the top shelf of this division has been a disaster. She totaled a -186 striking differential against Nunes and Holm, and she's sandwiched those appearances with three straight knockouts -- some of them entirely fluky in fights she was losing. Overall, Aldana's knockdown rate (0.35%) doesn't match the power threat she's considered to be because of those results, and as a one-dimensional striker, she has a -0.85 SSR.

She's almost certainly overvalued in some capacity, which opened the door to Karol Rosa for me here. Rosa's two forays into the rankings haven't gone well exclusively because of her grappling. She let Norma Dumont (6-2 UFC) control 33% of their bout earlier this year, and veteran wrestler Sara McMann controlled 68% of her fight with Rosa.

I truly don't know what to expect in this Aldana matchup when Irene doesn't do that at all. Overall, Rosa's +1.26 SSR has been her strong suit, and this striking matchup is pretty interesting. While Aldana's accuracy (39%) has been an issue, Rosa's defense (48%) isn't always high-caliber. On the flip side, Rosa's accuracy (55%) is a strength, but Aldana's 59% striking D has allowed her to win or see the end of all 12 of her UFC appearances.

The footnote on this bout, though, is that at 35 years old, we've likely seen Irene's prime, and Rosa (28) is just entering hers. That's all the justification I need to take a shot at an upset in a division where they happen regularly.

Betting Verdict

• The model has Rosa as 97.3% likely to win the distance striking differential, which would likely be a death knell for the one-dimensional Aldana. It sees Rosa as 60.1% likely to win this fight despite her worse recent competition, but I'd just go as far personally to say this fight's odds should be far closer than they are.
• Rosa hasn't been finished in eight UFC bouts, and Aldana's knockout binge doesn't seem reliable given her low rate of power punches. The model, like oddsmakers, sees this fight as a heavy favorite to go the full distance (78.4%).

DFS Verdict

• You wouldn't want Aldana ($16) in DFS even with a victorious decision, but the more accurate Rosa ($13) is extremely live for a win as a value play.

Dustin Jacoby vs. Alonzo Menifield

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

Light heavyweight's crowded picture will get a tiny bit of clarity with this showdown just on the fringe of the rankings.

Dustin Jacoby and Alonzo Menifield are both at least 35 years old, so a loss Saturday all but officially wraps up either's chance of ever holding UFC gold. It's not probable for either, but the hope would be gone. Kudos to these veterans, who have both improved greatly through their time with UFC.

Jacoby's real career started back in 2020 after a cup of coffee in 2011 before any wrestling defense was refined, and he's 8-2-1 since returning to the promotion. "The Hanyak" is a former pro kickboxer who is masterful in that department, per a +1.44 SSR and anyone's eyeballs. Jacoby's pace (11.87 significant strikes attempted per minute) melts the plodders of this division, but his 60% takedown D has still crept up as an issue against strong wrestlers.

Menifield isn't one of those, but he's an intriguing package in his own right. "Atomic" is the right nickname if a 1.11% knockdown rate is any indication, and he's added two crafty submissions in his last seven fights, so you can't ignore that danger, either. Still, Menifield's career has been far rockier, including downright disappointing losses outside the rankings to Devin Clark, William Knight, and Ovince St. Preux. Only Clark (8-8 UFC) remains on the roster to this point.

This is an odd fight where my model did help. Jacoby is almost certainly the better distance striker, but Menifield's power advantage, wrestling upside, and submission skills largely make him the more dangerous fighter to win inside the full distance.

The model has Menifield at 50.1% to win, and Jacoby sits at 49.9%. That part is less relevant than Menfield being the value proposition in both betting and DFS markets.

Betting Verdict

• Despite Jacoby getting most of the betting love at various sources, this line has stayed put at -265. It opened a pick 'em offshore -- precisely where my model has it. That's a far more appropriate price given how dangerous Menfield is by comparison.
• With this fight 54.1% likely to go the distance in the model's eyes, Menifield's decision prop (+700) is showing the most analytical value. Not believing in his decision equity, I might sooner just play the fight to go the distance (+122) straight up.

DFS Verdict

• Even if Alonzo wasn't dangerous, Jacoby ($20) has finishing concerns behind a so-so 0.61% knockdown rate as is. Couple that with the fact he's the less lethal fighter in both domains, and this was a no-brainer process punt to Menifield ($10) for me.

Bryce Mitchell vs. Josh Emmett

Featherweight (145 pounds)

The harsh reality of UFC title contention is you don't get to pick your matchups, and 38-year-old Josh Emmett can't get out of the rankings fast enough.

Emmett was one of my favorite fighters in his prime. Even to this day, Emmett's knockdown rate (1.51%) is massive due to a seven-fight streak with a knockdown. No one at featherweight had Emmett's power. The problem? In the sixth of those seven fights, Emmett tore his ACL and hasn't been the same since. In his last three fights, Sacramento's own has a wretched -128 striking differential.

That's really bad news when his 46% takedown defense has always been an issue; in February, Yair Rodriguez submitted Emmett to claim the 145-pound interim title. With his power sapped and wrestling defense a concern, I just don't have much positive to report entering this late-notice bout with Bryce Mitchell.

Mitchell might be Emmett's worst matchup on the entire roster. He's posted an elite 3.51 takedowns per 15 minutes with 41% accuracy, and his 58% striking D has kept him safe on the way into attempts. Only Ilia Topuria -- by submission -- has defeated Mitchell in eight pro fights. "Thug Nasty" is a grappling ace averaging 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, and Emmett's issues are well-documented with that style.

I rarely look at a UFC fight of this caliber without a win condition for both men, but Emmett's would exclusively be a blast from the past. He'll have to secure his first knockout since the knee surgery against one of the division's most durable fighters. There are simply no signs of that renaissance as he ages out of one of the sport's best divisions.

Betting Verdict

• I rarely show value on a heavy favorite, but I've got Mitchell at -235 in this fight. This bout did come together just last week, but I see that as no advantage for either fighter given Emmett's first matchup was a one-dimensional striker (Giga Chikadze). If Mitchell is in shape, he should cruise.
• Though boring, I've got Mitchell at +105 to win a decision versus the +110 odds on FanDuel. Mitchell hasn't found an early finish in five fights, but if there was a spot for his submission skills to win out (+400), it would be here.

DFS Verdict

• Mitchell ($17) was completely dominant in his last fight, but without an early finish, he posted just 68.8 FanDuel points. That's the push-pull of his wrestling-heavy style, but this is too good of a matchup. I'll have plenty of flex exposure.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Tony Ferguson

Lightweight (155 pounds)

I don't think UFC could have gotten this assignment any more correct for both men. Needing to silence some doubters, Paddy Pimblett has a forgiving but respectable name across from him on Saturday, and Tony Ferguson was given a winnable fight to see if he's still got "it" in any sort of capacity.

"Paddy the Baddy" had the potential to replicate Conor McGregor's historic rise from the U.K. with a fourth dominant win in his last fight, but Pimblett badly underwhelmed. He won an extremely controversial split decision over Jared Gordon (8-5 UFC) with a +3 striking differential, but Gordon had over seven minutes of control time. It was close, which -- bottomline -- was far worse than anyone was expecting.

Pimblett's 41% striking D and 56% takedown D provided openings for Gordon to hang tight, and that's the concern for him moving up in competition against Ferguson. The former title contender is on a six-fight losing streak at 39 years old, so you just can't help but wonder if he's entirely washed from a violent, 22-fight UFC career. "El Cucuy" has a -141 striking differential during the skid and has ceded over 28 minutes of control time.

It's equally concerning the results have gotten worse as the competition level has. Bobby Green lit up Ferguson for a +83 differential in July, but then Green scored an upset over Grant Dawson to ensure that all six fighters who have defeated Ferguson are ranked or were before retiring (Nate Diaz), leaving an asterisk and measure of hope for Ferguson's supporters.

At the end of the day, Ferguson hasn't endangered any of his last six opponents despite Green and Diaz particularly showing fleeting chins and poor defensive efforts against others. Paddy's defense is bad, but he's the younger, better athlete who might truly be stepping back in competition from Gordon, who is, analytically, an excellent striker and efficient wrestler. This modern version of Tony hasn't been efficient in a single area.

Betting Verdict

• Ferguson's losing streak has been so uninspiring that, despite a massive level of competition advantange, my model is giving him just a 37.8% chance to win this fight. And despite what Pimblett lacks as a striker, he's a better grappler than Green, and Green found a submission.
  • Ferguson is just hard to support at this stage of what appears to be total decline.
• Tony's durability used to be a signature attribute, but getting stopped in three straight, the model views this fight at 63.3% likely to end early. FanDuel's odds imply a 62.7% chance.

DFS Verdict

• Pimblett ($22) sits as a pretty inarguable MVP candidate with the best one yet to come. Ferguson's last three foes have averaged 115.7 FanDuel points with no one falling short of 100.

Shavkat Rakhmonov vs. Stephen Thompson

Welterweight (170 pounds)

Dominant winning streaks seeing a step back in competition usually produce lopsided results. Shavkat Rakhmonov is favored for one here.

Personally, Rakhmonov's last challenge against Geoff Neal (8-3 UFC) was much tougher, and Rakhmonov ran through Neal with a +44 striking differential and third-round submission. "Nomad" appears to be next in line for a title shot with a win on Saturday and will face the main event's winner. He's dominated striking (+1.84 SSR) and grappling (1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes) with five finishes in five UFC appearances.

Stephen Thompson would be his second top-10 win, and "Wonderboy" was probably hoping for a different matchup. At 40 years old, Thompson once challenged for this title, but his ceiling has been thoroughly established through poor modern wrestling defense. He ceded 10 of 15 takedown attempts in consecutive losses to Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns before getting back on track last December against Kevin Holland -- but that was a striking match.

Holland has also proven not to be a true difference-maker in welterweight's top 10. There's a path of this fight where Rakhmonov plows through Thompson with his usual lethal striking accuracy (59%), but he's such a heavy favorite in this bout because, at worst, Rakhmonov should prove to be able to demolish Thompson's wrestling D. He's landed 1.49 takedowns per 15 minutes with 33% accuracy, which is fine without context, but that mark was also damaged by Neal's elite 87% takedown D.

A dominant finish of Thompson when Muhammad and Burns went the full distance with him could be all Shavkat needs to make official what has been known to be inevitable.

Betting Verdict

• My model is designed with guard rails to usually not show outright value on favorites heavier than -300 (or so) due to injuries, historical upset rates, and different ranges of fight outcomes. It's still pegging Rakhmonov as 72.4% to win this fight despite poorer historical competition.
  • In terms of method, I've got Rakhmonov's submission prop at +135, and his KO/TKO prop at +400. At +150 on FanDuel, the former is showing value.
• I've got this fight at 70.1% to not go the full distance despite Thompson going the distance in four of his last five. I'd be stunned if the 40-year-old ended Shavkat's finish streak when Neal could not.

DFS Verdict

• I argued Rakhmonov should be FanDuel's first $24 salary on Monday, so I've got no problem with the standard maximum of $23. He's an elite finisher with really solid pace in a positive matchup.

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Brandon Royval

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

This is the "WTF?" betting line of the week, and we've got a strap on the line. Oh boy.

Regardless of my model's result, it's really bizarre to see Alexandre Pantoja just a -192 favorite at FanDuel. In August 2021, Pantoja dusted and demolished Brandon Royval via a second-round submission. He posted 3 takedowns, 2 submission attempts, landed 55% of his significant strikes, and defended 72% of Royval's. It was total one-way traffic.

However, over two years later, I understand why UFC re-racked this fight. Pantoja really hasn't looked back, submitting Alex Perez in the first round and defeating Brandon Moreno via split decision in July to earn this division's title. Pantoja's striking efficiency wasn't ideal in that Moreno bout -- especially behind a 40% striking D. He did score six takedowns and over eight minutes in control time to squeak out the result.

Efficiency isn't Royval's game, either. Every "Raw Dawg" bout is a tornado of violence, but he emerged unscathed in April with a first-round knockout of Matheus Nicolau to earn this shot. Before that, Royval was dropped by Matt Schnell (6-5 UFC) before finding a submission and surrendered eight takedowns to Rogerio Bontorin (3-3 UFC) but managed a split decision.

Royval's style isn't super dependable. He's huge for the weight class at 5'9", aiming to use his hands (1.92% knockdown rate) to hurt opponents and get to a nasty submission game where he averages 2.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Both of those potential fight-ending weapons are lethal, but when they've failed to come through, it's been a lot getting walloped behind a poor 50% striking D and 39% takedown D.

As someone who has cashed on underdog Brandon Royval in three different spots, he's always a threat for an upset perhaps more than anyone else in UFC. His primary tools require a second of violence to win. However, Pantoja's historical durability -- without an inside-the-distance loss yet -- has just been too solid to expect him to falter in a championship setting.

Betting Verdict

• My model is paying homage to Royval's knockdown and submission rates (plus his two-year age gap) to peg him 48.1% likely to win this fight, but expecting him to do so just 8.7% of the time via decision shows how unlikely it is he's the better fighter in this fight. It would be a lucky moment.
• I've got this fight at 68.7% to end early. Royval has only started the third round once in his eight UFC fights. I fully assume he'll go for broke again here, lending my largest bet on this fight to be under 2.5 rounds (-152).

DFS Verdict

• Pantoja ($21) is the third-best MVP candidate on the card behind Shavkat and Paddy. Royval's defensive openings are so present that he will have a solid score on the board if he avoids the early finish as he's done so consistently.

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

Welterweight (170 pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

This fight, above all, is one where my lack of technical MMA knowledge really stinks.

The analytical profiles of Leon Edwards and Colby Covington are extremely weird. In the last three calendar years, four of their combined eight fights came facing former 170-pound champion Kamaru Usman. The exceptions were money fights against aging veterans like Jorge Masvidal, Tyron Woodley, and Nate Diaz outside of Edwards' fight with Belal Muhammad, which was a no contest due to an eye injury. It's a total mess in terms of recent form against this division's top level.

Part of that is due to both sitting out long periods for a title shot. Edwards capitalized on his, using one kick to turn a beating at the hands of Usman into an upset in August 2022, and Leon defended the belt via majority decision in March 2023. Covington failed both times, getting dropped by Usman a combined four times and losing two decisions without much debate.

It'd be unwise to write off Covington due to a poor matchup against Usman's legendary 89% takedown D. Covington hasn't really been bothered by anyone else, landing 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes with 45% accuracy. His motor is truly the 100th percentile of UFC; I've never seen him tired. In lieu of technical striking, he's used pace (10.51 significant strikes attempted per minute) and a solid 55% striking defense to still win minutes on the feet. His one true concern as a wrestler is a lack of finishing potential with just three total career submission attempts.

Edwards' BJJ black belt could present Covington some issues, but with just one UFC win via sub, it's not his strong suit, either. The much more pressing question is if Edwards' 69% takedown D survives "Chaos" Covington's patented flurry. He defended 18 of 27 attempts from Usman but still spent a combined 15:39 in the former champion's control.

While you'd assume Edwards is the better striker here, he's just never lived up to his skill with volume, landing a poor 2.80 significant strike attempts per minute overall. That was much higher in the second Usman fight (5.55), and he's always been extremely efficient. It's just much harder to know if Covington will outpace him for minutes there.

I wanted to lean on my model for this fight, but it's pegging Edwards at 50.2% to win with Covington at 49.8%. That's basically a coin flip, which is mentally how I see this fight, and the line makes sense to me given Edwards' popularity and Covington's intentionally unlikeable persona. With betting value slightly in Covington's direction, I just don't see an urgent choice within this fight's market.

Betting Verdict

• Fighters older than 35 (Colby) facing a fighter younger than 35 (Leon) in a UFC title fight are 3-30-1 in their last 34 attempts, but Alex Pereira bucked that trend just last month. The stat still leads me to pass on Covington's moneyline (+138) despite showing a bit of value.
• Interestingly, I've got this fight at 81.0% to go the entire distance, which is 65.5% implied at FanDuel Sportsbook. That'll be my vested interest.

DFS Verdict

• Edwards' fantasy output (2.28 FanDuel points per minute excl. bonuses) has been absolutely dreadful. Even if he's winning key moments of this fight and the decision, it's likely not worth his $20 salary on this card loaded with heavy favorites. He'd need the second career early stoppage of Covington.
• Covington's high takedown volume could be worth a bite at the apple at $18, but the elevated salaries could also justify a total pass.

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