UFC 294: Best Bets, Fight Previews, and Daily Fantasy Picks

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of the weekend throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight, and FanDuel Fantasy has several UFC daily fantasy contests with lucrative prizes. Regardless of your preferred way to play, we'll break down the environment, chances for each fighter to win, and matchup specifics for each bout.

Without further delay, let's break down the 13 fights at UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2, taking place at the Ethiad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates on Saturday.

Shara Magomedov vs. Bruno Silva

Middleweight (185 pounds)

This is a featured-prelim level fight by ability, but I think the UFC might be afraid of how Shara Magomedov might take a loss in this situation.

Magomedov's colored past has to be a concern, but there's no doubt he can fight at a UFC level. He defeated Blood Diamond, Israel Adesanya's primary training partner, in a Glory kickboxing match, and Diamond's deficiencies in UFC have come against three grapplers. As a result, he's debuting just outside the middleweight rankings against Bruno Silva, who just lost to Brendan Allen (ninth in the official ranks).

"Blindado" Silva has posted just 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes with dreadful 18% accuracy, so I'm guessing UFC expects a striking match and a soft landing for Magomedov. Silva is still no easy out on the feet despite a -0.26 striking success rate (SSR); he's amassed four wins by knockout and a healthy 0.83% knockdown rate, so if you're not at the top of your game, he can catch you.

I still feel this is a low-risk spot for Magomedov. Silva's 48% striking D has resulted in being dropped in two of his past three fights, and Magomedov is actually the far superior grappler in this fight. He competes in jiu-jitsu tournaments, and Silva has lost all seven of his fight inside the distance via submission.

If UFC wanted to schedule Magomedov a loss, this would have been a grappling specialist -- of which middleweight is largely comprised. They gave him Silva, a poor one-dimensional striker on paper, to provide an opportunity for something exciting.

Betting Verdict

• Just based on Silva's career trends, Magomedov's submission prop (+750) is long enough to be intriguing despite the fact he's never secured one.
  • Silva hasn't been knocked out in any of his 32 pro fights but has been submitted 7 times.
• Silva's path here is also a knockout, which is why this fight is an absurd -320 to not see its full distance.

DFS Verdict

• Magomedov profiles as a high-upside striker in this bout, and his one true condition of failing to score FanDuel points is an unlikely Silva knockout. He's -- albeit uncomfortably -- in the MVP mix at $18.

Viktoriia Dudakova vs. Jinh Yu Frey

Women's Strawweight (115 pounds)

In some ways, Viktoriia Dudakova's debut was underwhelming. We didn't really get to learn much about a polarizing prospect.

Some aren't buying the Russian grappler and picked Istela Nunes (0-4 UFC; +0.18 SSR) to defeat her, but Nunes broke her arm just 34 seconds into the fight. Dudakova previously muscled through her Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) appearance with four takedowns in a snooze-inducing decision. Jinh Yu Frey is certainly a test she'll have to clear in order to give the promotion more hope.

Frey is just 2-5 in UFC, and with a -1.16 SSR, she's really only found any success in the grappling department. She stuffed all eight of Ashley Yoder's takedowns in one win, and she landed a pair of her own against Gloria de Paula for the other. Frey's 37% takedown accuracy and 89% takedown defense are really solid considering she's been the weaker striker (by SSR) in six of her seven appearances; her opponents knew she had to do that to win.

Interestingly, Frey should easily be the more comfortable striker here. Dudakova has just a 42% striking D with zero anecdotal signs of comfort operating in that area so far. If Frey is stuffing takedowns, she's very live to tire the prospect out, and she'd be the one scoring points with strikes in lieu of failed takedowns. That's precisely how she beat Yoder.

At 38 years old, I just can't trust Frey to execute that gameplan. In my opinion, her last matchup with Elise Reed (3-4 UFC) was a better one. She landed just three of seven takedowns against the division's worst grappler, so a young, accomplished grappler may very well be able to bully her to the ground and submit her as Kay Hansen did in Frey's UFC debut.

Betting Verdict

• Dudakova is a heavy favorite in this bout due to her grappling acumen, but somehow, she's +420 to win this fight by submission. That's just far too long when just about any pro MMA fighter can sink in a rear-naked choke, and Frey has been submitted by armbar (another basic one) before.

DFS Verdict

• I was surprised to end up interested in Dudakova ($21) here. Of the heavy favorites, she's most likely to go ignored, but I actually believe in her ability to find a finish -- by submission -- more than I do her salary neighbors.

Nathaniel Wood vs. Muhammad Naimov

Featherweight (145 pounds)

Fading upsets in UFC can be wildly profitable because a win moves a fighter up the internal rankings regardless of context. I'm not sure Muhammad Naimov is ready for that.

On short notice and up in weight, Naimov upset Jamie Mullarkey (5-4 UFC) in a fight he was handily losing as a +380 underdog. Naimov amassed a -2.05 SSR and ceded takedowns on three of six attempts before a haymaker connected, and Mullarkey was shockingly left unconscious. Naimov also had a poor striking accuracy (40%) and defense (44%). That type of power is appealing at his betting number, but it's quite literally the only positive I've got to report.

Nathaniel Wood, meanwhile, has won seven of his nine UFC bouts -- and all three since moving to featherweight in 2022. He's posted a stellar +1.89 SSR for his work, and his wrestling stats are even better. He's landed 1.70 takedowns per 15 minutes with 54% accuracy, and he's stuffed 10 of 13 takedown attempts at 145 pounds.

We didn't see Naimov try to wrestle in his debut, but conceivably, I see it as his one path to victory against Wood. Nathaniel is a better analytical striker than Mullarkey and, naturally, will be even faster at this lower weight class. Naimov's advantage would be size, and Wood has been dropped a couple of times in UFC, so it's entirely possible that the native of Tajikstan has power Wood just can't handle.

Still, playing the percentages here, this looks like another plus matchup for "The Prospect" from England.

Betting Verdict

• Wood's analytical profile is ostensibly flawless, so I'll need a substantial jump from his regular competition to fade him. Naimov (0-1 UFC) is definitely not that. To me, he's a parlay piece at this number.
• Against three consecutive multi-time UFC winners, Wood has gone to a decision. I think it's left his inside-the-distance prop (+175) a bit too distant here.

DFS Verdict

• This has tilting result written all over it with Naimov, as a finisher in his debut, likely more popular on FanDuel. I still think Wood ($19) wins comfortably here with an excellent pace (4.59 FanDuel points per minute excl. bonuses) historically.

Anshul Jubli vs. Mike Breeden

Lightweight (155 pounds)

Assigning the right value to Anshul Jubli's debut is a brutal assignment.

Jubli came through UFC's Road to the UFC program in Asia, so he hasn't yet faced a proven UFC challenger. He demolished Jeka Saragih in the lightweight finale, and that came as a shock to many. Saragih scored consecutive finishes before the finale, and Jubli had just amassed a -3 striking differential in a close decision bout.

He had a wrestling-heavy approach against Saragih, but he's posted just a 33% takedown accuracy through two UFC-affiliated starts thus far. His +0.89 SSR is solid overall, but he was outlanded at striking distance in both starts. I've got some questions despite taking on Mike Breeden's 0-3 record here.

Breeden's 4 losses have come to guys with a combined 13 wins, so there's a reason he's still with the promotion. I was surprisingly discouraged by his effort in August, landing just 1 significant strike on Terrance McKinney before getting knocked out, when he had just amassed 104 against Natan Levy (2-1 UFC) in a war. The strength of schedule makes it difficult to pinpoint his ability beyond a -1.80 SSR, but I will say that his 62% takedown defense against Levy was wholly inspiring that his grappling defense can be passable in spots.

This is the most confusing fight on the card for me because of Jubli's unknown, but in general, I don't want to staunchly support a fighter with a 41% striking defense that was knocked out two months ago, and that's "Money" Mike Breeden. As Breeden missed weight on Friday, it seems more and more as if UFC told him to take this fight or lose his contract, and it's designed as a plum spot for the first UFC fighter from India not too far from his backyard.

Betting Verdict

• For a -290 favorite, Jubli's inside-the-distance prop (+120) is sub-50% implied when he was an aggressive finisher in his debut, and the durability red flags for Breeden are mounting. That's intriguing if my hypothesis about a prop-up spot is true.

DFS Verdict

• I don't know how you don't lean Jubli ($16) in this spot when he's 74.4% implied to win at a mid-range, pick 'em type of salary. The mid-range is the place to be in DFS this weekend.

Sedriques Dumas vs. Abu Azaitar

Middleweight (185 pounds)

This odd card just keeps getting weirder.

Abu Azaitar somehow made it back to UFC after the infamous potato incident at the height of the COVID pandemic, and you could argue from his debut that he at least earned a shot. Against Marc-Andre Barriault (5-5 UFC), Azaitar was a classic victim of "The Power Bar", melting from a +17 striking differential in the first two rounds to getting finished in the third. Barriault's legendary cardio has melted others since, so it's kind of hard to say he's not UFC-caliber with a -0.14 SSR against the Canadian.

Somehow, Sedriques Dumas might be weirder than him entering this one. Dumas, luckily, grabbed a submission on DWCS that still remains his only attempt, and he's had two embarrassing fights on the ground since. Luckily, Cody Brundage jumped guillotine four times to hand him top position in May, but Dumas was submitted easily by Josh Fremd (2-3 UFC) in the fight prior.

The data in this fight has me a bit cloudy. Dumas hasn't been able to strike since entering the promotion due to a 33% takedown defense, but Azaitar's only UFC-affiliated takedown was a quick trip. This is largely a battle of strikers, and I don't see the upside with Azaitar.

Though it's possible Abu survives and outpoints Dumas for a decision, there is five inches of height and three inches of reach separating these two on an entirely different athletic plane. Plus, Abu is 37 years old now with noted cardio issues in the past, and Dumas' win in Jacksonville over Brundage was solely due to his superior conditioning.

I'm trusting the larger, more explosive athlete finds a way.

Betting Verdict

• This is truly a fight I don't have any desire to wager one side or another. Dumas' athletic advantages are worth his standing as a favorite, but Azaitar's performance at a better competition level was good enough to believe he has a decent shot to win.

DFS Verdict

• The odd structure of this card has Dumas (-260) as its second-smallest favorite. That packs a ton of win equity -- and finish equity -- in his $16 salary.

Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Austin's Fight of the Night

As mentioned earlier this summer with Farid, the Basharat brothers haven't put a foot out of place in UFC. It's hard to pick against Javid Basharat with that the case.

Javid's list of wins includes multi-time UFC winners like Tony Gravely and Trevin Jones, but a late-notice replacement made his last appearance against Mateus Mendonça (0-2 UFC) a bit hard to draw anything from. Analytically, he's perfect everywhere across the three wins -- all coming via decision. He's posted a card-best +3.34 SSR while adding 2.03 takedowns per 15 minutes behind elite efficiency. His wrestling could be extremely useful this weekend against Victor Henry.

The air was let out of Henry's balloon when Raphael Assunçao used a pair of takedowns to grind out a decision win, but Henry used a March appearance at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas to quiet many doubters. His dominant win over the aforementioned Gravely (+79 striking differential) was even more lopsided than Basharat's effort (+47), which likely set up this fight.

Remarkably, since the start of 2010, these two bantamweight veterans have appeared 43 combined times, and none of those appearances ended with Basharat or Henry getting finished. They've also gone the full distance in all six combined UFC appearances, which is why this fight is -230 to go the full distance.

Henry still defended three of Assunçao's five attempts, but if his wrestling defense isn't incredibly sharp, perhaps "The Snow Leopard" will have an opportunity to show he's worth this moneyline. If Henry's takedown defense holds, this could be a competitive, fun fight where both sides land plenty of significant strikes.

"La Mangosta" Henry upset Raoni Barcelos (6-4 UFC) as a +425 underdog in his UFC debut, so he's no stranger to this position. I'd expect a more competitive effort than expected here, too.

Betting Verdict

• With at least 45 minutes of fight time on both sides, I ran my model here. It put Henry's odds to win at 39.8%, which actually produces some value compared to the 20.4% implied odds to win at FanDuel Sportsbook.
• Amazingly, the model still shows value on this fight to go the distance despite the absurd price. It's pegged it at 89.0% likely, which translates to roughly -810 odds.

DFS Verdict

• I'm not opposed to Basharat ($22) when both of these prolific 135ers land north of 5.50 significant strikes per minute, but a decision would almost certainly make Henry ($9) the right side in DFS. I think it is a fight that you can justifiably stack given the uncertainty of several wrestlers elsewhere on the card.

Trevor Peek vs. Mohammad Yahya

Lightweight (155 pounds)

When the promotion has a marketable star that just isn't UFC-caliber, you need to find non-UFC-caliber guys to fight him. They did just that here.

Trevor Peek didn't lose any fans despite spoiling several parlays in May, losing a decision to Chepe Mariscal (2-0 UFC) in a wild firefight. Mariscal took the fight on less than a week's notice.

Peek's 40% striking defense might be doing his practical defense a service to be that high, but the Tennessee fireballer -- and his 1.28% knockdown rate against a pair of historically durable foes -- can hammer away with strikes, landing 5.65 per minute with solid 53% accuracy. Peek's 53% takedown D isn't great, either.

Eventually, Peek's defensive shortcomings will realize a ceiling, but he can continue brawling with regional guys until then. Mohammad Yahya, who will become the first Emirian fighter in UFC history on Saturday, is very much a regional guy.

With minimal competition in the developing sports landscape of the UAE, Yahya's resumé is frighteningly barren for a UFC fighter. His last pro appearance was a decision win over a 5-4 professional from France. That makes it peculiar that he's in the red corner (i.e. higher in UFC's internal rankings) over Peek, a UFC winner, but a training partner of Khamzat Chimaev probably does get some benefit of the doubt.

This fight is a total nightmare to handicap. Peek's minimal success against both Malik Lewis, 0-2 on DWCS, and Chepe Mariscal leaves little hope for his UFC future, but Yahya's resumé is awful.

If Yahya has any sort of technical ability at all, this could be a battering of Peek, a total brawler. However, Peek's power and athleticism could also overwhelm the ambiguous newcomer. These are the type of fights I don't want to make predictions about.

Betting Verdict

• I have no interest in betting this fight with such poor data and such unreliable players at hand.

DFS Verdict

• Here's where a decision would be required. Peek ($15) will be significantly more popular on FanDuel as the known quantity with power, but Yahya ($15) could be a tournament-winning pivot should he have the skills to brutalize the American's poor defense.

Muhammad Mokaev vs. Tim Elliott

Men's Flyweight (125 pounds)

Muhammad Mokaev will be great one day, but "will" is doing plenty of heavy lifting there.

The 23-year-old just hasn't put those explosive results together yet as he's yet to reach him prime. Mokaev's quick submission of Cody Durden (5-2-1 UFC) might have entered the "fluke" category when he's since entered the third round with three different fighters who are a combined 5-8 in UFC's weakest division.

Mokaev's efficiency is sparkling, but beyond it coming against a lower level of competition, he's not really mounted offense that actually scores in judges' eyes. He's landed a pathetic 1.14 significant strikes per minute; remember, takedowns don't score points on their own. Mokaev's submission volume (1.3 attempts per 15 minutes) has exclusively earned him all three wins by finish.

I'm not going as far as my model, which pegs him as a +120 underdog to Tim Elliott in this spot despite his standing as the card's largest favorite. It just shows how competitive this fight should be. Elliott, who has faced multiple former champions, posts a much higher rate of significant strikes per minute (3.47) while still adding an excellent 3.88 takedowns per 15. He's a cardio machine, and if you're concerned about him wrestling a Dagestani foe, he just convincingly dispatched Tagir Ulanbekov (3-1 UFC) in 2022 as a +200 underdog.

Elliott was prone to dumb mistakes early in his career with four total losses by submission, but he's gone the full distance -- sometimes with top-10 ranked foes -- in six of his last seven bouts. If this goes to a decision, Mokaev's price won't be worth the sweat.

Betting Verdict

• Mokaev's submission volume isn't outrageously high, so my model has a hard time assessing him a spot to score points. Elliott's frantic pace often does. It sees the underdog as 54.5% likely to win. While still favoring Mokaev personally, I'd agree the betting value is with Tim.
• More importantly, the model has this fight is 65.4% to go the distance. I feel more secure about that than the outright win, which could also open up an interesting hedge with Mokaev's decision prop (+120).

DFS Verdict

• Mokaev's rate of FanDuel scoring isn't bad, but it's always been a struggle to be worth his salary. As an MVP candidate, you'd hope for better than failing to eclipse 100 FanDuel points in his past three fights.
• Elliott's $10 salary almost eliminates the need for a second underdog in your build; a win from him in this spot would be immensely valuable if it happened.

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov

Men's Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Though not the largest favorite on the card by any means, I'd be most surprised by a Said Nurmagomedov loss because I can't comprehend his opponent's path to victory.

Nurmagomedov -- not from the family of the former champion -- took a loss last time out, but it was one of five in a row for opponents of the ranked Jonathan Martinez (10-3 UFC), and going the full distance certainly hasn't aged poorly. Before that, Nurmagomedov had bested five multi-time UFC winners with his only other loss coming to Raoni Barcelos (6-4 UFC). It's a pretty stout resumé at this stage.

Meanwhile, Muin Gafurov is 0-1 in UFC, losing to John Castaneda (4-2 UFC) in his official debut. Gafurov was penalized for multiple fouls and amassed a +0.17 SSR through that one. He showed more on DWCS against Chad Anheliger, landing five takedowns in a split decision loss. More concerningly, Gafurov has just a 47% striking D and 62% takedown D through the two appearances, which are both fully exploitable for a fighter with three wins by finish.

Said is more of a striker, and his +1.39 SSR is all the more impressive when he's landed just 3.54 significant strikes per minute. It's nothing sensational, but he mitigates damage with elite efficiency. On the flip side, Gafurov has proven to be inefficient and sloppy at times.

Frankly, the path I'd see Nurmagomedov losing -- yet to be outstruck in a fight with distance time -- is via his wrestling, but even then, he defended 7 of 12 takedowns against the sensational Saidyokub Kakhramonov (2-1 UFC) before cinching a choke on the challenger. I see Gafurov as a level below Nurmagomedov's last four opponents; that's usually when special happens.

Betting Verdict

• Nurmagomedov's inside-the-distance prop (+135) is wholly undervalued when he's a proven finisher against multi-time winners. Gafurov might wrestle himself into immense danger, and he's also been knocked down in both UFC-affiliated appearances.
• With a near coin flip on the total, I prefer under 2.5 rounds (-108) while also acknowledging I don't believe Gafurov has inside-the-distance upside.

DFS Verdict

• Said ($16) is a guy I've generally shied away from, but in hindsight, it was attached to a lot of talented, decision-oriented bantamweights themselves. This matchup could unlock his true upside.

Ikram Aliskerov vs. Warlley Alves

Middleweight (185 pounds)

"Special in small samples" is a really harrowing proposition in my line of work. The public always believes it's real, inflating the betting line. We'll see if Ikram Aliskerov is.

If nothing else, UFC's prior matchup for him with a ranked Paulo Costa shows quite a bit of confidence in his ability. Aliskerov did demolish Phil Hawes (5-4 UFC) in his debut by first-round knockout, and his offensive stats are sensational. He's landed 6.25 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy, adding 3.47 takedowns per 15 minutes. The fights haven't been long, but his 40% striking defense is my true concern at this point.

I believe that's why this matchup is defensible. Warlley Alves has been an explosive finisher, finding a guillotine choke on top-five contender Colby Covington back in 2015 in addition to a first-round KO of Mounir Lazzez (2-2 UFC). For a little, his power and explosiveness could make Aliskerov's so-so defense to this stage pay.

Still, Aliskerov is a card-best -700 favorite for a reason. Alves has dropped four of his last six fights well outside the rankings and was finished in three of those losses. If anything, his need for early aggression while fresh could play right into the hands of the talented Russian.

In Ikram's backyard, the promotion wanted to keep him on the card, and not many hands went up. Alves took this fight with basically no risk to his standing on the roster, and he's got a puncher's chance by definition -- but that's about it.

Betting Verdict

• Alves is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with six career submission wins to just one loss (Randy Brown). I believe the favorite's path to least resistance by knockout (+150).
• Aliskerov's two UFC-affiliated appearances ended in less than three minutes, and Alves is a sprinter, as well. His first-round prop by any method (+130) might make the most sense above all.

DFS Verdict

• Aliskerov ($23) is indeed that +130 to collect at least 100 FanDuel points in the first round. There are heavy favorites on this card, but most others are expected to face a longer night. He's the best MVP option on the card.

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker

Light Heavyweight (205 pounds)

This fight was quite the ride to model.

Frankly, I've kind of forgot what an uninspiring run Magomed Ankalaev has been on despite being tabbed as the future of this division. Now at 31, he's exiting a draw (that was a poor decision) against Jan Blachowicz, which was so ugly that UFC re-racked the title fight with two new combatants less than a month later. That was one of four decisions in his last five bouts, and the exception was Anthony Smith breaking his leg on the other side.

Still, one odd note is that Ankalaev's knockdown rate (1.24%) does just exceed that of Johnny Walker (1.19%) in a fight where most view the Brazilian underdog as a knockout-or-bust option. I'm not sure of that; he just took a convincing decision from Smith in May that followed first-round finishes of Ion Cutelaba and Paul Craig. Walker's last loss was to the vacated champion, Jamahal Hill, by first-round KO.

Though Ankalaev's stiking defense (59%) is signifcantly higher, he and Walker get it done in different ways with SSRs of +1.40 and +1.27, respectively. Many are scared to engage with the 6'6" Walker, who will have seven inches of reach on Ankalaev. If Magomed tries to exploit Walker's 60% takedown D, he better be careful. He's 0-1 via submission in UFC, and Walker -- out of nowhere -- used three submission attempts to dispatch Cutelaba.

My model checked my bias here. I would have called Walker the power puncher, but his underrated win condition might also be a submission with Ankalaev yet to offer an official attempt in UFC. Ankalaev's own hesitancy -- offering just 6.83 significant strikes per minute -- might also help Walker's defensive shortcomings just as it did his previous opponents'.

I see Walker as the toolsier fight that is notably improving, so I wouldn't totally doubt his power and athleticism at this betting number.

Betting Verdict

• I was pretty surprised to show value on Walker here. I've got him at 43.1% to win this fight when these odds imply a 27.0% chance.
• Oddly, Walker's submission prop is approximately +925 in my model. It's +2200 on FanDuel with most assuming the Dagestani wrestler wouldn't lose that way.
• As another oddity, I'm actually showing this fight at 63.5% to go the distance. That seems crazy when it's +152 at FanDuel, but Ankalaev has been a decision machine inside the top 10 at light heavyweight.

DFS Verdict

• If this fight simply goes the distance regardless of outcome, it'll ruin plenty of lineups pegging Ankalaev ($19) as one of the card's best bets for a quick finish. Walker ($11) is the side I'll nervously target.

Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kamaru Usman

Middleweight (185 pounds)

Kamaru Usman is likely getting compensated handsomely for such a tall task on 10 days notice, but this has disaster written all over it to me.

The latest version we saw of the former dominant welterweight champ was a shell of himself at 36 years old in March. He landed just 4 of 15 takedown attempts on Leon Edwards, and Edwards landed a whopping 74% of his significant strikes. "Rocky" Edwards was a fighter my model believed was wildly overrated entering his two battles with Usman, but that second act elevated his profile closer to divisional averages.

The aforementioned model would have had Khamzat Chimaev north of -1200 against Edwards before that last Usman-Edwards clash, so with the full expectation that "Borz" is a better fighter, this lopsided moneyline makes more sense. The enigmatic Russian missed weight by nine pounds last fall but still crushed ranked welterweight Kevin Holland when UFC got done shuffling chairs to find him a bout. He's now only allowed to compete at middleweight, per the promotion.

Overall, Chimaev's "vulnerability" was shown from a -11 striking differential to Gilbert Burns (15-6 UFC) in which he still won by unanimous decision. I'm still concerned about Chimaev's 41% striking D in the future, but he waded through all of Burns' power punches with no sort of wobble or danger.

I actually think Chimaev's striking, which has produced 7.30 significant strikes per minute with lethal 59% accuracy, is an underrated element of this fight. Much of the discussion is whether or not he can exploit Usman's elite 97% takedown defense; I still think he could, but Chimaev won't be out to lunch on the feet given how much success Edwards had.

The problem for me is that I no longer can trust Usman's +1.71 SSR and excellent wrestling stats. He showed a sharp decline from even the first Edwards bout in March, and my model still has Chimaev at -295 to win when giving full credit overall to those metrics.

The future middleweight champion of the world fights on Saturday; I'd tune in to watch.

Betting Verdict

• My model absolutely helped check my bias in this fight. Chimaev's growing sample is seemingly not human, and even the overall, prime-weighted version of Usman would have a tough task here. I think this reduced version is toast.
• This fight is -200 to not go the distance, and I'm on the same page, projecting it 82.2% to finish before the final bell.

DFS Verdict

• Chimaev ($18) is usually the maximum salary on the slate, so I appreciate Usman's legacy providing some value here. He sprints for the finish from the opening bell and didn't slow down in the Burns fight. Cutting less weight, another monstrous effort could be on the way.

Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski

Lightweight (155 pounds)
Five-Round Title Fight

Alexander Volkanovski is a man of his word. He loves challenging himself and believes it's for the best.

On 10 days notice, Volkanovski steps in for the injured Charles Oliveira for his second crack at the lightweight title. Of course, the longtime featherweight champion had no issues defending his own belt in July, but this one eluded him. Islam Makhachev took a unanimous decision in a fight that was far closer than any of us expected it.

With that said, I think we may have done as UFC consumers what we always do with overperforming underdogs. There were cries of a poor decision, but Makhachev landed a significantly higher percentage of his significant strikes (60%) with four takedowns and over seven minutes of control time. Analytically, he was still fairly dominant in most rounds. Volkanovski's knockdown and crafty final-round sweep aside, he definitely lost.

Makhachev has landed 3.24 takedowns per 15 minutes with 62% accuracy. He's truly emulated Khabib Nurmagomedov's unstoppable wrestling from the same camp, and Makhachev's striking accuracy (59%) and defense (61%) are absurd. His 91% takedown D also largely removes that weapon from his opponents. He's easily a top-three fighter in the promotion.

The problem here is that Volkanovski had an entire camp planning to be at lightweight before this duo's first fight. This fight comes as he was likely preparing for Ilia Topuria at 145 pounds, so I'm not sure his base weight is what it was in the first bout. Plus, that was near his backyard in Australia, and this will be on Makhachev's turf in Abu Dhabi.

As a supreme advocate of Volk and his +2.89 SSR (which is just absurd at a championship level), he fought as well as he could have in the first fight and still lost. Makhachev has more arrows in his corner this time around, and I'm concerned this bout also puts Volkanovski's 145-pound title in jeopardy come January.

There's challenging yourself, and then there is believing the impossible is possible. I hate to doubt the Aussie, but I think this is the latter.

Betting Verdict

• My model has Makhachev at 54.2% to win this fight, but fighters older than 35 (Volk) facing a fighter younger than 35 (Islam) are 2-29-1 in their last 32 UFC title fights. Add in the negative change in weight class for Volkanovski, and the favorite is a worthy one.
  • I probably won't get to the window, though. Even in such a big fight, I just don't have an extreme desire to wager against Volk, the greatest MMA fighter of all-time.
• I've got this fight at -120 to go the distance (or +120 to not), and that's right about where this line is hovering.

DFS Verdict

• Makhachev's wrestling-heavy style produced just 78.2 FanDuel points in the first fight, and Volkanovski's overall defense is exceptional. I think Islam is viable on FanDuel at $20 while other, better MVP options exist.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.