Twins vs. Astros American League Division Series Preview

Following a short-lived Wild Card Round, the road to the Fall Classic continues Saturday with four Divisional Series games.

The Minnesota Twins will visit the Houston Astros for Game 1 of the ALDS -- and a strong tale-of-two-cities narrative is baked into this already compelling matchup.

Houston has been the most dominant playoff team in recent history. In the last six years, the Astros have booked a trip to the World Series a staggering four times and will look to follow up on their successful championship bid from last season.

Minnesota, meanwhile, spent 19 straight years in the October loss column -- that is, until Tuesday's AL Wild Card win against the Toronto Blue Jays. With this victory, the Twins snapped an 18-game playoff losing streak, and after winning Game 2, as well, Minnesota will look to seek greener postseason pastures against the reigning champs.

The Astros currently hold +450 odds to win it all while the Twins odds sit at +900, but I think the advanced team stats breakdown may indicate that Minnesota is more than capable of capitalizing on their underdog status.

All MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Twins vs. Astros AL Division Series Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

• Series Moneyline:
  • Twins: +126
  • Astros: -154
• Total Games:
  • 3 (+285)
  • 4 (+155)
  • 5 (+146)
• Correct Score:
  • Astros 3-0 (+540)
  • Astros 3-1 (+390)
  • Astros 3-2 (+300)
  • Twins 3-0 (+820)
  • Twins 3-1 (+410)
  • Twins 3-2 (+470)

Twins vs. Astros Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

• Twins (87-75/1st in AL Central):
  • nERD: 1.10 (4th)
  • Run differential: +119 (7th)
  • Home record: 47-34 (9th)
  • Away record: 40-41 (14th)
  • OPS: .753 (7th)
  • HR/game: 1.43 (T3rd)
  • wOBA: .327 (7th)
  • ERA: 3.87 (5th)
  • K%: 26.6% (1st-worst)
  • BB%: 7.3% (27th)
• Astros (90-72/1st in AL West):
  • nERD: 0.87 (9th)
  • Run differential: +129 (5th)
  • Home record: 39-42 (20th)
  • Away record: 51-30 (3rd)
  • OPS: .768 (5th)
  • HR/game: 1.37 (7th)
  • wOBA: .332 (5th)
  • ERA: 3.94 (8th)
  • K%: 19.8% (28th-best)
  • BB%: 8.8% (11th)

Twins vs. Astros AL Division Series Analysis

Despite placing in the top-five in ERA and home runs hit this season, this Twins team hasn't been given a whole lot of respect, and they will have the ultimate opportunity to silence naysayers if they can knock off the reigning Fall Classic champs in the ALDS.

Minnesota's underdog origins come from a place of validity -- not only have they been a non-factor in October baseball for far too long, but they also suffer from the status of benefitting from a weak AL Central.

The AL Central is a brutally abysmal division, at least in recent years. Besides the Twins, no other team in the AL Central posted a winning record this season, while at least three teams in every other division ended the season above .500.

Based on this, an AL Central title isn't all that impressive, especially given the ease of competition that comes with increased games within this division.

However, Minnesota taught us a few things during their AL Wild Card rout against the Blue Jays --they are here to stay, and pitching wins playoff games.

Pitching Matchups

In the Wild Card Series, the Twins let up a mere one run in 18 innings versus the Blue Jays. Joe Ryan will be on the bump for Minnesota in Game 1, and though he is too power-prone for comfort, especially against a power-heavy Houston team, Twins fans should take solace in the fact that aces Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray should be available to start a combined three games this series.

Lopez boasts the league's fifth-best strikeout rate, while Gray gives up the fewest home runs per nine innings at 0.39 -- they should be in a comfortable position to placate Houston batters.

Minnesota's bullpen posts a middle-of-the-road 3.95 ERA (15th in MLB). While they have decent arms to turn to should disaster strike the starting aces, it's imperative that Lopez and Gray perform for the Twins to have a chance at the ALCS.

The Astros will put Justin Verlander on the mound for Game 1, and although his career playoff numbers haven't been anything to brag about, he is a certified ace and comes in with ample high-intensity game experience. Framber Valdez isn't anything to shake a stick at, either -- plus, the 'Stros bullpen owns a 3.56 ERA (seventh).

Though Verlander, Valdez, and the Houston bullpen should bring Houston far, the additional starting pitcher options are not ideal -- Cristian Javier, J.P. France, and Hunter Brown have been fairly unreliable in the second half this season, meaning an early series lead is likely key for the Astros.

Batter Up

This should prove to be a power-heavy matchup, at least as far as regular season numbers are concerned. The Twins hit 233 home runs this season (third) while the Astros went yard 222 times (seventh). Houston holds a higher batting average than Minnesota -- the Astros ended the regular season with a .259 batting average (fifth), while the Twins held a .243 average (21st).

I think the Astros' lineup is more intimidating than the Twins' lineup, both due to the Astros' vast playoff experience and their sheer ability to put on a major run-fest.

Sluggers Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman lead the power-hitting way for Houston. Jose Altuve is an ever-reliable player to take residency on the base paths, and Jeremy Pena, Jose Abreu, and Chas McCormick are very solid bottom-of-the-lineup hitters.

Minnesota's Royce Lewis ended the season with a stellar .309 batting average and proved a major ability to step up to the plate in big moments after hitting two home runs in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round. Though there isn't a single Twins player who hit more than 25 four-baggers this season, they have 10 players who hit at least 14 home runs, exemplifying that their lineup may not be the flashiest but is well-rounded.

March to the ALCS

Houston and Minnesota played six regular-season games against each other -- the Twins won four out of six, and the average run total for the games was 9.0. However, these games took place prior to June, so this series will serve as a major reintroduction for both teams.

The Astros have a championship pedigree, but the Twins possess the ability to make more noise this October.

I think Houston has the edge in Game 1, mainly because Joe Ryan is taking the mound for the Twins, and his second-half output of a 6.09 ERA and 2.63 HR/9 is a tad horrifying.

After that, Minnesota should see two great opportunities to win with Lopez and Gray on the bump, and it seems more likely than not that this series will be decided in five very entertaining games.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.