Tua Tagovailoa Can Provide Upside as a Mid-Tier Fantasy Quarterback

Despite dealing with multiple concussions in 2022, Tua Tagovailoa is coming off the best season of his young career and remains in a fantasy-friendly offense.

What should you expect from Tagovailoa in 2023?

Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 4,451 passing yards, 29.78 passing TDs, 11.88 INTs, 134 rushing yards, 1.2 rushing TDs
numberFire Positional Projection: QB13

Tua Tagovailoa Fantasy Football Outlook

Career Year

After being drafted fourth overall in 2020, some people were underwhelmed by Tua Tagovailoa in his first two seasons. He did enter the NFL coming off of a serious injury at Alabama and then also had an injury in his second season.

There were other reasons for struggles early in his career. He wasn't put in a position to succeed with a weak offensive line and was in an offensive scheme that didn't really suit him.

That changed drastically in 2022.

Mike McDaniel became head coach of the Miami Dolphins at the start of last year. This was the creative offensive mind that Tua needed to help him be a useful fantasy quarterback. McDaniel designed the offense around a quick-tempo passing game that could utilize wide receivers who are skilled with the ball in their hands.

The trade to acquire Tyreek Hill gave Tagovailoa a legitimate star to target. Alongside a young breakout pass-catcher in Jaylen Waddle, they were one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. These two guys were perfect for the style of offense that McDaniel wants to run, and both were excellent in 2022.

Tua started off the season playing really well despite missing some time. He averaged 22.8 fantasy points in games he was able to complete before the Dolphins' bye week. This represented a huge leap forward -- he only averaged 14.7 points per game in 2021 -- and this was the first time he was truly fantasy relevant.

Heading into 2023

There is a wide range of outcomes for Tagovailoa in this upcoming season. The reason for optimism would be that he continues to play like he did in the first half of last season. He'll have had more time in McDaniel's system, more time working with Tyreek Hill, and will be playing behind an improving offensive line.

That offensive line will need to do a good job keeping Tua upright because the biggest concern is clearly health. Specifically head injuries, as he suffered three concussions last season and contemplated retirement because of the toll it was taking on him. The scary part is that if he takes one bad hit, it could cost him the season or even worse.

The elite wide receivers he has available to him certainly make Tua an intriguing proposition to draft in fantasy this season, though, if you can stomach a bit of risk.

Where Should You Select Tua in Fantasy Drafts

Right now, Tagovailoa is being drafted as the 10th quarterback overall, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. In FanDuel Best Ball contests, he's going as the 11th quarterback.

Both of these are a bit higher than numberFire's positional projection of QB13. Fantasy players must be enticed by the upside Tua demonstrated at times last season.

He's being drafted in the same range as Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. Tua probably has more upside than both of these players, especially if we don't see Prescott get back to running.

Tua is getting selected at an ADP of 89.8 in half-PPR drafts, putting him significantly behind that top tier of elite quarterbacks who tend to run more. Tagovailoa won't add much with his legs -- which likely keeps him from being one of the best fantasy QBs -- but he certainly has the upside to deliver value at this draft position.

It might make more sense to target Tua in a managed league rather than best ball because if he does suffer an injury, you can stream a replacement for him. In best ball, you would be left with one or two other quarterbacks on your roster who may not be able to deliver the upside needed in a best ball format.

If you miss out on one of the elite quarterbacks, Tua is a nice fall-back option.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.