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CasinoTOUR Championship Win Simulations: Can Anyone Catch Scottie Scheffler?
The PGA Tour's final event is here.
The TOUR Championship will crown this year's FedExCup Playoff champion, but as we've seen for the past four years, the field will have some level of starting strokes (well, all but the bottom five, who start at even par).
TOUR Championship | Starting Score |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | -10 |
| Viktor Hovland | -8 |
| Rory McIlroy | -7 |
| Jon Rahm | -6 |
| Lucas Glover | -5 |
| Max Homa | -4 |
| Patrick Cantlay | -4 |
These need to be accounted for with regards to the net winner.
To help with that, here is what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's PGA Tour event.
TOUR Championship Win Simulations
Golfer | FanDuel Salary | Starting Score | Win% | Top-10% | Top-20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | $13,000 | -10 | 46.68% | 96.80% | 99.77% |
| Rory McIlroy | $12,800 | -7 | 16.29% | 87.33% | 98.50% |
| Viktor Hovland | $12,000 | -8 | 13.06% | 83.03% | 97.14% |
| Jon Rahm | $12,500 | -6 | 7.29% | 73.42% | 94.09% |
| Patrick Cantlay | $12,200 | -4 | 4.25% | 65.01% | 92.48% |
| Xander Schauffele | $11,600 | -3 | 1.93% | 49.11% | 87.33% |
| Max Homa | $11,300 | -4 | 1.73% | 47.91% | 84.69% |
It looks kind of wild, but Scottie Scheffler's +135 odds aren't that bad. He's starting at -10, and while that's only a 10-shot lead over the bottom five golfers in the field, it's at least a two-stroke lead on everyone, including the man who ran him down last week: Viktor Hovland (+450). With the best form of any golfer in the world despite putting issues -- and a -10 start -- it's no wonder that Scheffler's win probability is so high.
Starting one shot behind Hovland (-8) is McIlroy (-7), and Rory has better win odds in the model (16.3%) than Hovland (13.1%). In the four years since the new TOUR Championship format, the -10 starter has two wins. The other two wins were both by McIlroy, who started at -4 and -5 during his wins.
Naturally, there's not a lot of win juice left over with those three soaking up 76.0% of the potential wins, via the model.
Looking to use your knowledge to build some daily fantasy golf lineups? Check out all of this week's contests over at FanDuel and all golf betting odds and markets at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.