Tour Championship Picks and Predictions: 3 Golf Best Bets for This Week

Tour Championship Picks at a Glance

• Sam Burns Outright Winner (+1800)
• Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (-125)
• Russell Henley Top-10 Finish (+110)

The PGA Tour has reached the finale as the Tour Championship is this week at East Lake in Atlanta.

Via the golf odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which betting picks should be on your radar ahead of Thursday's opening round?

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Golf Picks: Tour Championship Best Bets and Predictions

Sam Burns to Win (+1800)

Sam Burns has the kind of statistical profile I want to target at East Lake.

Burns ranks 10th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total (+1.118 per round) and has made significant progress with his irons, ranking 31st in Strokes Gained: Approach (+0.392). More importantly, he's one of the best putters in the world right now, sitting second on Tour in Strokes Gained: Putting at +0.697 per round.

His scoring numbers are equally impressive. Burns is second on Tour in par-4 scoring average, eighth in birdie average and ninth in overall scoring average. That's an intriguing combination at a par-70 course where 12 of the 18 holes are par 4s.

Burns has six top-10 finishes this season and comes into the finale sixth in the FedExCup standings. With an elite putter capable of getting extremely hot over four rounds, Burns has the overall game to win this week.

Collin Morikawa Top-10 Finish (-125)

If East Lake turns into a ball-striking contest, Collin Morikawa could thrive.

Morikawa ranks first on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, picking up more than 0.8 strokes per round with his irons. He's also 10th in driving accuracy, inside the top 20 in greens in regulation, and 11th in Strokes Gained: Total.

The putting remains the obvious concern, but his elite iron play continually gives him enough birdie opportunities to contend even when he isn't gaining much on the greens. Morikawa also recently finished third at the Travelers Championship and was in contention again at the BMW Championship (T4) before qualifying comfortably for East Lake.

In a 30-player field with no cut and no starting-strokes disadvantage to overcome, Morikawa will have ample time to let his irons go to work.

Russell Henley Top-10 Finish (+110)

We'll round out the card with Russell Henley, who has already shown that his game translates extremely well to East Lake.

Henley finished tied for second at last year's Tour Championship, shooting 15-under. He also has the added familiarity of playing in his home state after growing up in Georgia and playing collegiately at the University of Georgia.

Henley enters this week ranked 20th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Total and 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting. Earlier this season, he was also among the Tour's best players in bogey avoidance, which matters at an East Lake setup where avoiding mistakes can be just as important as piling up birdies.

He isn't nearly as long off the tee as most of the favorites, but East Lake has historically allowed accurate, controlled ball-strikers to compete. That’s Henley.

After nearly winning here a year ago, Henley's combination of course history, putting and all-around consistency makes him an appealing top-10 target.

Golf Betting FAQ

What does it mean to bet on a golfer to win outright?

An outright winner bet — sometimes called a "to win" bet — is a wager on a specific golfer to finish first in the tournament. Because golf fields typically range from 70 to 156 players, winning outright is difficult, which is why odds for most players are expressed as large positive numbers (e.g., +1200 or +5000). A $100 wager on a +1200 golfer would return $1,200 in profit if that player wins.

What is a Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 finish bet?

Finish position bets let you wager on a golfer to finish within a specified range on the final leaderboard, regardless of whether they win. A Top 10 bet pays out if the player finishes anywhere from first through 10th place. Odds are naturally shorter than outright markets to reflect the higher likelihood of success — a player might be +1200 to win but only +200 to finish Top 10.

How does a make/miss the cut bet work?

Most professional golf tournaments feature a 36-hole cut, trimming the field halfway through the tourney; the exact number of golfers who make the cut varies by event. A make/miss the cut bet is a simple two-way wager on whether a specific golfer will survive that cut and play the weekend.

What is a head-to-head matchup bet in golf?

A head-to-head matchup bet pairs two golfers against each other for the full tournament or for a single round, with the bet paying out based on which player finishes higher on the leaderboard.

What is a first-round leader bet?

A first-round leader bet is a wager on which golfer will post the lowest score in the first round (usually on Thursday). First-round leader bets tend to carry large odds given the size of the field and the variance of one-day results.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.