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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 8

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 8

Week 8 in the NFL brought the return of two marquee stars on Thursday, and the Los Angeles Rams got the win. The Miami Dolphins would love to continue that trend as they get back Tua Tagovailoa in a home date with the Arizona Cardinals.

Injuries continue to impact the slate elsewhere, too. The Cleveland Browns have a new sheriff under center, and the San Francisco 49ers are in disarray with cluster injuries at wideout.

How will the puzzle pieces continue to fit together as we head toward Halloween?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins

Dolphins -2.5 in First Half (-120)
Tyreek Hill to Record 100+ Receiving Yards (+164)

1st Half Spread
Miami Dolphins

The 'Phins have been a good home bet in the Tua Tagovailoa era, and Miami and its fans are thrilled to continue the era on Sunday. Tua will return from his scary Week 2 concussion after practicing this week.

This is a great matchup for the Dolphins to bring back some of last year's vibes when Tagovailoa was third in the NFL in expected points added per drop back (0.20 EPA/db). The visiting Cardinals are numberFire's third-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense, which is welcome news to both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Miami's defense has, shockingly, held down the fort as nF's sixth-ranked overall D, so the prospect of adding an offensive contribution anywhere close to 2023 could turn the Fish into a bonafide contender quickly. I'll bet the field-goal margin at half, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the Dolphins cover the full-game line. They've done so in 62.6% of Tua's home starts.

As for the aforementioned Hill, the proverbial shackles of Miami's dreadful QB situation come off this week. He was relegated to a 22.4% target share on substantially worse efficiency with the three blind mice under center, but Hill's target share in full Tua starts this year (33.1%) and in 2023 (31.9%) were both significant upgrades.

Tyreek Hill - Alt Receiving Yds
Tyreek Hill 100+ Yards

Cheetah has crossed the century mark of receiving yards in 7 of his last 14 games with Tagovailoa, so in a plus matchup, these sub-50% implied odds are really tempting.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals

Over 47.5 Points (-115)

Total Match Points

Over
Oct 27 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Though Tee Higgins' hamstring injury puts a bit of a damper on the scoring environment between the Philadelphia Eagles and Cincinnati Bengals, this game should still feature plenty of points.

numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive metrics imply that. Cincy is just the 24th-ranked unit in the NFL, and the Birds (17th) also fall below the league average. The overall schedule-adjusted pace here isn't ideal, but the Bengals will always stop the clock with the NFL's third-highest pass rate over expectation.

Regardless of pace, these teams typically can score in seconds. Cincinnati leads the NFL in touchdowns of at least 25 yards (8), and the Eagles rank 10th in explosive play rate (10.2%). That leaps to third in just games A.J. Brown, who hasn't been held below 89 receiving yards all year, has been able to play.

My colleague Jim Sannes is leaping to an alternate over in this one, and these two teams with some of the league's best playmakers could put sixes on the board quickly.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Browns +8.5 (-115)

Spread

Cleveland Browns
Oct 27 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The universe had seen enough.

While no one is wishing injury on anyone, the Cleveland Browns have to be thrilled with the end result of Deshaun Watson's Achilles injury. It's just that he won't be playing quarterback at the worst level in the NFL anymore, per -0.30 EPA/db.

This talented Browns club has to be riding high with Jameis Winston's insertion. The capable veteran -- even if sometimes goofy and prone to mistakes -- is productive and posted 0.55 EPA/db in limited action on Sunday. Winston is a capable arm that can toast the Baltimore Ravens, who are nF's fourth-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense.

I also can't help but wonder if a rejuvenated Browns defense reclaims a bit of its form without Watson's crushing three-and-out marathons. They were nF's top overall defense a year ago under defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and many of the same key pieces.

Cleveland is behind the eight ball in the standings at 1-6 -- if not toast already. However, I'll back them to keep this game with the vaunted Ravens a one-possession contest. Five of the last seven games between these two franchises have been.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+110)

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Travis Kelce

This pains me as a Las Vegas Raiders fan, but it's just too perfect.

Travis Kelce has been seen as a declining player this season, but it's for one particular reason -- a bagel in the touchdown column.

If you look beyond Kelce's touchdown number, a lot of his peripheral usage metrics look like the Kelce of old. Since the Rashee Rice injury in Week 3, he's run 80.9% of the Kansas City Chiefs' routes. He's seen 8.0 targets per game, including 23.1% of the team's red zone looks. He's right there for a score, but time and time again, it's been Kareem Hunt in recent weeks.

Perhaps the uniforms on the other side are the only shift he needs. Kelce has scored 9 touchdowns in his last 12 games against the Raiders.

Vegas' tight-end schedule has been a cupcake, having yet to face a player at the position that sits in the league's top 15 in target share. I'm willing to call bologna on their excellence at limiting the big guys finding the end zone, and I'll back Taylor's guy at plus money to get his first of the year. After all, there's bad blood between these two teams after the offseason puppet drama.


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Which bets stand out to you for today's action? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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