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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 7

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 7

All eyes will be on a rematch of February's Super Bowl as the Kansas City Chiefs battle the San Francisco 49ers in Santa Clara. That game is the highlight of the afternoon window, but we've got several competitive contests in the early window to sandwich the marquee game with a clash between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers in primetime that certainly got a bit more...interesting...in light of this week's marquee news for both.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills

Over 41.5 Points (-105)
Tony Pollard Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

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As my colleague Skyler Carlin agreed in our Week 7 expert picks, this total might be too low despite the Tennessee Titans' recent struggles to score points.

Tennessee is never going to light up the scoreboard with Will Levis at quarterback, but their issue has been an inability to give Levis any sort of balances against four straight top-12 rush defenses, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. For all of the Buffalo Bills' strengths, they are 26th against the rush.

If the Titans can contribute at all, this total could be in danger by halftime. The Bills' top-five rushing and passing offense should see the return of James Cook in this one, and they've topped 30 points in three of Cook's five active games. Tennessee's top-five defense is a challenge, but Josh Allen posted 0.24 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) against a difficult secondary last week. The best quarterback in football is going to do his thing.

numberFire has 43.0 total points projected in this game, making the over a two-star wager in its algorithm.

Given Buffalo's struggles to defend the run, our Week 7 fantasy football projections are also stumped on how Tony Pollard's rushing prop sits here. Pollard has had a larger share of the Titans' backfield than anyone anticipated, earning 15.6 carries per game to Tyjae Spears' 6.6. He's been awesome on them, per 0.11 rushing yards over expectation per carry.

We've got Pollard projected for 82.2 rushing yards from 17.8 attempts on Sunday. Backing a rusher on a 9.5-point underdog can be dicey, but the algorithm also leans toward the Titans covering this spread.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

Packers -2.5 (-122)

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This market is a great example of shopping around. While most domestic sportsbooks have moved to a key number of 3.0, FanDuel still sits at 2.5 -- albeit with juice.

With home field worth roughly three points, this line is arguing the Houston Texans are a slightly better or equal team to the Green Bay Packers. numberFire and I disagree -- especially with the NFL's most efficient receiver, Nico Collins, set to miss Week 7 on IR with a hamstring injury.

Green Bay is nF's 7th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense to Houston's 12th. On offense, they're ranked 10th to Houston's 15th -- even if Joe Mixon is a jolt to the model's 29th-ranked rushing offense.

The Packers are also a solid home team in the Jordan Love era, covering 7 of 11 games against the spread (ATS). numberFire projects Green Bay wins by at least three points 63.8% of the time on Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Moneyline (-172)
Bijan Robinson Over 89.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-114)

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The Atlanta Falcons' only week outside of a one-score game was last week's beatdown of the Carolina Panthers. It's incredibly plausible we get a close one on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks.

This intersection of squads moving in opposite directions is fascinating. Atlanta's lone loss in their last five contests came to the vaunted Chiefs, and Seattle's 3-0 start has fizzled to a 3-3 record where they've surrendered at least 29 points on their losing streak. On a long trip for the Seahawks, we'll back the direction of the momentum.

Atlanta is numberFire's 9th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense, and Seattle is 18th. These two teams are neighbors just below the league average on defense, slotting in 18th and 17th in those schedule-adjusted metrics, respectively.

nF is very specific about its recommendation to back Atlanta here. It sees the Falcons winning 73.1% of the time outright but covering the spread (3.0) just 60.2% of the time. The better value in those two projections is to leap to the moneyline.

If the Falcons win, a huge Bijan Robinson effort could be on deck. I'm not panicking that Tyler Allgeier outcarried Robinson, 18-15, in last week's blowout when Bijan still played 65.6% of the snaps in the first half. It's gotten ugly for Seattle defending tailbacks; they are allowing 183.7 scrimmage yards to the position over the past three weeks.

We've got Robinson projected for 96.1 scrimmage yards in this game, and it won't be a surprise to see him over the century mark if this game is close and high-scoring as expected.


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Which bets stand out to you for today's action? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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