Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 4

The market is finally responding to some of the crazy outcomes we've seen in the NFL this season. Tight lines litter the board entering Week 4, and totals are down across the board.

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers

Over 47.5 Points (-105)
Diontae Johnson Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Cincinnati Bengals didn't force a punt last week, so the suddenly-red-hot Carolina Panthers offense should be able to carry momentum into this matchup.

These are two of numberFire's bottom-six overall defenses in terms of per-play efficiency. While last week's win over the Las Vegas Raiders was a nice moment, Carolina's defense still got blasted for 22 offensive points and 331 total yards. Nonetheless, Andy Dalton posted 0.31 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) as a clear upgrade over Bryce Young.

Lost in a defeat that sent them to 0-3, the Bengals' offense didn't punt themselves, either, in Week 3. Tee Higgins' return seemed to spark Joe Burrow, who posted 0.46 EPA/db himself. Zack Moss has also improved the Cincy rushing offense, which sits 11th in nF's ranks.

With both offenses projected for success, I'm diving into the prop market with Diontae Johnson, as well.

Johnson had a 40.0% target share in the second half last week after Adam Thielen (hamstring) departed, and Thielen will miss this week on injured reserve. FanDuel Research's Week 4 fantasy football projections have Johnson pegged for 71.8 receiving yards at a median; the market might be a hair slow to his expected output with Dalton under center and Thielen out of the lineup.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buccaneers Moneyline (-102)

Zagging on the last thing we saw in the NFL can be a fortuitous strategy. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are only an underdog because of Week 3.

Tampa got trounced at home by a Denver Broncos team that might have gone a bit overlooked. They did just down a Super Bowl contender on the road in Week 2. They've still got nF's 16th-best offense and 11th-best defense overall.

On the flip side, the Philadelphia Eagles escaped last week but remain far from free of concerns. Philly's young secondary is the algorithm's 11th-worst pass defense entering a matchup with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and they're dealing with injuries to right tackle Lane Johnson and both starting wideouts.

In a game that should come down to the last possession, I'll take the Bucs to avoid consecutive losses at home.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears

Bears -2.5 (-132)

Buying points in football is a tricky proposition, but points have been so hard to come by for the Chicago Bears that it's reasonable this one comes down to exactly its field-goal spread.

Against all odds, the Los Angeles Rams dispatched the San Francisco 49ers at home last week, but it should be tougher sledding for how it happened. L.A. was outgained by 129 yards, and their injured wide receiving corps should feel a tougher test from the Bears D. Chicago is numberFire's seventh-best rush defense and fifth-best pass defense.

Meanwhile, this is the Bears' first matchup with a bottom-10 defense (per nF) all season, and there's reason to believe in offensive improvement now that they've rumored to bench free agent acquisition D'Andre Swift. Each Swift carry has resulted in -0.57 EPA per carry. L.A. is numberFire's second-worst overall defense.

If L.A. had lost last week, this line would likely exceed a field goal. This is good value when the Bears' offense seems to be in their best spot of the season to this point.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.