Timberwolves vs. Mavericks: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 4

Riley Thomas•_riley8

1mo

Many expected the Eastern Conference Finals between the Indiana Pacers and Boston Celtics to be a lopsided series, which ended up being the case as the Celtics finished the sweep on Monday. However, the Western Conference Finals was supposed to be the must-see series that seemed to have a good shot of going seven games. Yet here we are with the Dallas Mavericks holding a 3-0 lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves heading into Game 4.

Dallas is favored to win tonight's game and complete the sweep (-120). Is this one a done deal, or will the Timberwolves grab their first win of the series? After being tied with about four minutes to go in Game 3, Minnesota faltered in the dwindling minutes yet again.

Let's jump into FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA odds, which have the Mavericks at +185 to win the NBA Finals. Which game line is worth targeting on Tuesday?

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NBA Playoffs Betting

Timberwolves-Mavericks Betting Odds

Date and Time: Tuesday, May 28th at 8:30 p.m. ET

Spread: Mavericks -1.5 (-110)

Total: 211

Moneyline:

Timberwolves: +102
Mavericks: -120

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings and pace via DunksAndThrees.

Timberwolves:
- nERD: 70.9 (3rd)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 115.0 (17th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 108.9 (1st)
- Pace: 97.7 (22nd)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 40-41-1
Mavericks:
- nERD: 57.1 (12th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 117.5 (7th)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 115.3 (18th)
- Pace: 100.4 (8th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 48-34

Timberwolves vs. Mavericks Best Bet

Mavericks Team Total Over 106.5 (-104)

The over has been a consistent winner in this series, going 3-0. The Mavericks were defending at a high level prior to the series, and the under was 4-2 in their previous series against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Considering the T-Wolves had one of the league's best defenses from start to finish, the uptick in scoring has been a slight surprise.

I expect this trend to continue tonight. The total closed between 207.0 and 207.5 for three consecutive games; the market has finally shifted with the total sitting at 211. Still, the over feels within reach. However, the team totals are offering more value -- particularly the Mavs' total.

The over for the combined total sits at -110 while over 106.5 for Dallas is -104. The scoring has been there for the Mavericks; let's dive into the stats.

Dallas went through a stretch in the Western Conference Semifinals with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving failing to turn in their typical scoring production. This seems to be no more as Luka has totaled 32.7 points per game (PPG) while Kyrie is logging 27.7 PPG during this series. The star-studded backcourt came to the forefront in Game 3 with each player tallying 33.

With the Mavs' backcourt rolling, this further supports the over. Dallas' scoring success predates this series as they are shooting 51.4% from the field over the last five contests. The three-point shooting has been just as hot at 40.5% during the span.

The Mavericks can also thank their success around the rim for this postseason run. Dallas is giving up the fourth-fewest points in the paint in the playoffs (fewest among active teams) while the offense is averaging the second-most paint touches in the postseason. They've even found success in the paint area against Minnesota's stingy defense, which is giving up the eighth-fewest points in the paint during the playoffs.

Through two games, the Mavs were logging 58.0 points in the paint each contest. They mustered only 40 points in the paint in Game 3, but converting 14 of 28 three-point shots made up for the lack of paint points.

This pick could also simply come down to the eye test. The Timberwolves have seemed to lack the tools to slow Luka and Kyrie. Irving met Anthony Edwards' challenge head on and has consistently won the matchup. Luka also continues to get his. This was one of the league's best offenses during the regular season with the seventh-highest offensive rating.

Dallas has logged 111.0 PPG in this series, and numberFire's daily game projections have the Mavericks' point total at about 110.6. Massey Ratings is also predicting that Dallas will go over 106.5 with a projected scoring total of 109.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.