Thursday Night Football Best Bets: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

At last, the NFL season is here. It's the most popular sport in America by a mile, as we all know, and the season-opening matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs is sure to draw a ton of interest.

This is a rematch of last season's AFC Championship game, in which the Chiefs won 17-10 in route to their second consecutive Super Bowl title. This time, Kansas City gets to play host. Will Baltimore spoil the defending champions' home opener, or will the Chiefs take their head-to-head record against the Ravens to 6-1 over the last seven matchups?

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Thursday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Ravens at Chiefs

Under 40.5 Points (+200)

The total for Thursday's clash is set at 46.5 points, which is in the top half for the highest totals in Week 1. However, many seem to be forgetting each team was in the top two of scoring defense a season ago. Baltimore only yielded 16.2 points per game (PPG) while opponents averaged a measly 17.0 when facing Kansas City. Yet, here we are with the total set at 46.5.

There is sound reason for each offense to improve in 2024. The Ravens added Derrick Henry, who posted 0.31 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C) in 2023, per NFL's Next Gen Stats, to the NFL's leading run game from 2023. Baltimore could see their receiving corps also improve with Zay Flowers entering his second season and hype surrounding Rashod Bateman.

For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes' targets are looking a lot more promising going into 2024 compared to a year ago. Rashee Rice is in his second season after coming up with 7.3 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per contest in 2023, and the unit has elite speed once again with the addition of Xavier Worthy, who broke the NFL Combine's 40-yard dash record at 4.21 seconds.

Still, this total seems too high. numberFire's game projections has the total with a median projection of 45.95 while MasseyRatings is suggesting a 42.5 total for this game. Models are agreeing that the under is the best bet.

I'm willing to even take this a step further by siding with an alternate total, specifically under 40.5 (+200).

We've mentioned how good each defense was a season ago. numberFire's schedule-adjusted power rankings are expecting more of the same with Baltimore holding the second-best unit paired with Kansas City closely behind at third. It makes sense when you look at offseason changes.

The Ravens' notable departures were Patrick Queen, Jadeveon Clowney, and Geno Stone. Baltimore still has perhaps the best off-ball linebacker in the game in Roquan Smith, they re-signed Justin Madubuike, and Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams are probably the best safety duo in football. This defense is just fine. For the Chiefs, not much happened outside the departure of Willie Gay Jr., who posted only a 53.3 Pro Football Focus (PFF) player grade in 2023.

If the AFC Championship was any lesson -- which reached only a 27-point combined total -- we should be in store for another low-scoring contest. numberFire has each pass defense within the top-three units. Limiting the pass attacks will only slow down the tempo of this game. The Ravens will probably be looking to do just that in order to keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands and quiet the home crowd. Give me under 40.5 points.

Ravens +3 (-120)

We prefaced the idea of Baltimore looking to control the tempo of Thursday's game. They can't afford to get behind, allowing Mahomes to get hot. No, I'm not going to sit here and push the Lamar Jackson is a "running back" agenda; he posted 0.05 expected points per dropback (EPA/db) last season. This take has been long dead. However, we all know what the Ravens want to do: run the rock.

In the playoffs, Baltimore ran the ball only 16 times compared to its season average of 31.5 (most). Sure, the Ravens were down by 10 points at the half, but why completely abandon your strength? This should be a lesson learned; I don't see Baltimore repeating the same mistake to open the season.

And when the Ravens did run, they totaled 5.1 yards per carry -- making the head-scratching decisions even more frustrating. Just like last season, Kansas City's run defense is the more vulnerable unit, as well. The Chiefs have the 11th-best mark in numberFire's schedule-adjusted run defense compared to 3rd in pass defense. They touted the fifth-fewest passing yards allowed per attempt compared to the ninth-most rushing yards allowed per carry in 2023. Additionally, Kansas City finished with the 12th-lowest run defense grade via PFF last year.

The interior defensive line will likely struggle to defend the run, for Chris Jones posted a 59.9 run defense grade while Tershawn Wharton logged a 48.4 run defense grade a season ago. As long as Baltimore runs the ball, it has a great chance of controlling the tempo of this game, ultimately leading to a cover. Our player props for Thursday Night Football circled Henry as a favorable bet.

It's unlikely that the Ravens make the same mistake as they did in the AFC Championship. Look for Baltimore to pound the rock, led by the legs of Henry and Lamar. The Baltimore moneyline is also drawing some interest at +130.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.