Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Feb. 27

Thunder vs. Nuggets Game Info

• Date: Friday, February 27, 2026
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• Venue: Paycom Center -- Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Coverage: ESPN, ALT, and FDSOK

Northwest Division opponents meet when the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15) host the Denver Nuggets (37-22) at Paycom Center, starting at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday, February 27, 2026. The Thunder are 8.5-point favorites in the game, the second matchup between the squads this season. The over/under is 230.5 for the matchup.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (73.4%)

Thunder vs. Nuggets Betting Trends

• The Thunder have put together a 31-28-1 record against the spread this season.
• The Nuggets are 33-26-0 against the spread this year.
• This season, Thunder games have hit the over 34 times out of 59 chances.
• Nuggets games this year have gone over the total in 37 of 59 opportunities (62.7%).
• Oklahoma City has covered the spread in a lower percentage of its home games than away games. It has covered 15 times in 31 games at home, and it has covered 16 times in 29 games on the road.
• When playing at home, the Thunder eclipse the total 48.4% of the time (15 of 31 games). They hit the over more consistently on the road, going over the total in 65.5% of games (19 of 29).
• Denver's winning percentage against the spread at home is .481 (13-14-0). Away, it is .625 (20-12-0).
• In 2025-26 a lower percentage of the Nuggets' games have finished above the over/under at home (55.6%, 15 of 27) than on the road (68.8%, 22 of 32).

Thunder Leaders

• Chet Holmgren's numbers on the season are 17.2 points, 8.8 rebounds and 1.7 assists per contest, shooting 55.2% from the floor and 35.2% from downtown, with an average of 1.2 made treys.
• Cason Wallace is averaging 8.9 points, 2.6 assists and 3.2 rebounds.
• Isaiah Hartenstein is averaging 10.7 points, 3.5 assists and 9.5 rebounds.
• Isaiah Joe's numbers on the season are 10.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, shooting 44.2% from the field and 42.3% from downtown, with an average of 2.5 made 3-pointers.
• Aaron Wiggins is averaging 10.6 points, 1.9 assists and 3.4 boards.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic averages 28.8 points for the Nuggets, plus 12.5 boards and 10.4 assists.
• Jamal Murray averages 25.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.4 assists. He is also draining 48.3% of his shots from the floor and 42.1% from beyond the arc, with 3.1 triples per game (ninth in league).
• The Nuggets get 13.9 points per game from Tim Hardaway Jr., plus 2.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists.
• The Nuggets get 7.7 points per game from Bruce Brown, plus 4 boards and 2.2 assists.
• Jonas Valanciunas' numbers on the season are 9 points, 5.2 boards and 1.3 assists per game. He is sinking 57.2% of his shots from the floor.

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