THE PLAYERS Championship: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

No, THE PLAYERS Championship isn't a major, but it sure does feel like major season is getting kicked off this week as the PGA Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

THE PLAYERS Championship Info

TPC Sawgrass (Stadium) Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,352 yards (average for a par 72)
• Average Fairway Width: 30.7 yards (narrow)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 square feet (a little small)
• Green Type: TifEagle bermudagrass / Poa trivialis overseed
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -20, -17, -13, -14, -16
• Recent Cut Lines: -1, +2, +2, E, -1

TPC Sawgrass (Stadium) Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Proximity Under 150 Yards

The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass really rewards accurate, precise ball-strikers. Due to tight fairways and water in play on 17 of 18 holes, there is a big emphasis on keeping the ball in play off the tee -- despite the average-to-long distance overall.

Each of the last five winners were seventh or better in strokes gained: approach for the week, and Scottie Scheffler has won two straight here by hitting a ton of fairways and then picking up GIRs from the fairway, ranking top-three in greens in regulation in each of his past two wins.

Scheffler's tee-to-green game was so good that he won despite really modest putting splits, and the same can be said for Justin Thomas in 2021, Rory McIlroy in 2019, and Si Woo Kim in 2017.

On the flip side, a few recent winners have putted so well that they overcame some weaker ball-striking data.

Cam Smith won in 2022 by gaining an outlierish +2.88 strokes per round putting, roughly 96th-percentile rounds maintained for four days. Webb Simpson averaged +2.34 strokes per round on the greens in 2018.

Unless you're putting at an unsustainable rate, the better route to success here is having the tee-to-green game sorted out.

THE PLAYERS Championship Past Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five iterations of this event, including their strokes gained data at this event.

THE PLAYERS Championship Field Recent Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five events on the PGA Tour, including their strokes gained data.

THE PLAYERS Championship Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Tommy Fleetwood

• Odds To Win THE PLAYERS Championship (+3000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+280)
• To Finish Top 20 (+130)

No, Tommy Fleetwood has not won on the PGA Tour before, but he has seven career DP World Tour wins and is a top-10 golfer in the world.

What really stands out for Fleetwood, to me, is the game right now and how it should translate to TPC Sawgrass.

Fleetwood has gained fairways on the field in seven straight measured events, and the last time he has lost strokes from approach play was back in July at The Open Championship, giving him 13 straight measured events with positive SG:APP.

Fleetwood also has finished top 22 in each of those 13 starts.

The form at TPC Sawgrass is pretty good overall, including two top-10 finishes in 2018 and 2019 and three straight made cuts over the last three years.

Things are set up for a Fleetwood breakthrough this week.

Russell Henley

• Odds To Win THE PLAYERS Championship (+3500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+320)
• To Finish Top 20 (+150)

It may be asking a lot for Russell Henley to go back-to-back, but he's a name I've been on a ton for months (and years), and was there -- thankfully -- last week at a course that rewarded distance more than this week's setup does. This week's it's more about accuracy and iron play, which are Henley's true fortes.

Over his last 50 rounds, Henley is 4th in accuracy and 26th in approach compared to this field, and he's one of just three golfers in the field to rank top-20 over his last 50 rounds in both strokes gained: tee to green and putting.

The other two are Rory McIlroy (+700) and Xander Schauffele (+1800).

Henley has gained strokes from putting in 21 of his last 25 events, gained strokes from approach in 22 of 25, and gained fairways in 23 of 25.

Sepp Straka

• Odds To Win THE PLAYERS Championship (+4500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+450)
• To Finish Top 20 (+210)

Sepp Straka is straight up playing some great golf.

He finished T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational this past week after a T11 at the Cognizant Classic, a missed cut at The Genesis Invitational, a 15th at the WM Phoenix Open, and a T7 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am after a win at The American Express.

Straka has gained a full shot per round from his approach play in 10 of his last 11 measured events and has also finished top-16 here in two of the last three years.

Straka is an 83rd-percentile putter on Tour from within 15 feet since the start of last year -- and just 13th-percentile from beyond that. That makes him a putting regression candidate.

Corey Conners

• Odds To Win THE PLAYERS Championship (+6000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+500)
• To Finish Top 20 (+220)

Corey Conners just couldn't buy a birdie on Sunday at the API and finished third by himself last week while gaining strokes across the board.

Conners really has a game that should translate to TPC Sawgrass, as he's accurate (14th over the last 50 rounds) and a great ball-striker (20th). That has translated to good course history: T13, cut, T26, 7th, and T41 in five full events.

Conners' putter can elude him, but a baseline as a strong T2G player is hard to ignore for finishing position markets this week, and Conners with a hot putter can absolutely win at TPC Sawgrass.

Aaron Rai

• Odds To Win THE PLAYERS Championship (+7500)
• To Finish Top 10 (+550)
• To Finish Top 20 (+240)

Rai is another golfer in the vein of a lot of names above him in this article.

He's accurate (4th), he has good irons (24th), and he is due for putting regression (75th-percentile splits from within 15 feet but 12th-percentile data from beyond that since the start of last season).

Rai was T11 last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week after finishing T4 at the Mexico Open in his prior start.

Rai is also two-for-two making cuts at TPC Sawgrass, finishing T19 in 2023 and T35 in 2024 while ranking top-25 in ball-striking both of those years.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.