As the NFL postseason approaches, elite defenses and run games become more important. We often hear why teams must be able to run the rock when it matters most and control the lines of scrimmage for a realistic shot at the Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been excelling in both categories.

Following Week 18's 17-10 over the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh is slated for a Wild Card matchup with the Buffalo Bills on Sunday afternoon. While the Steelers have improved in the run game and on defense, we can't overlook some of their weaknesses -- such as quarterback play. With a first-round matchup against one of the NFL's hottest teams (the Bills have won five straight), Pittsburgh could be quickly headed for the couch as 10-point underdogs.

We can't completely write off every team in the playoffs, though. A Wild Card team makes a deep run from time and time; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won a Super Bowl as a Wild Card squad in 2020, and the Green Bay Packers did it in 2010. Do the Steelers have any chance of becoming the next team in line? Let's breakdown Pittsburgh's chance of winning Super Bowl LVIII.

Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +13000 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (worst)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 0.2% (worst)

Pittsburgh Steelers Conference Championship Odds

• +6000 (worst)

Pittsburgh Steelers Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 12th
  • Passing: 24th
  • Overall: 24th
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 13th
  • Passing: 9th
  • Overall: 9th

Why The Steelers Could Win It All

The Steelers' shot of winning Super Bowl LVIII pretty much starts and ends with their defense and run game. Before diving into the support, let's get one thing straight -- Pittsburgh is a long shot. The Steelers have the longest odds to win the Lombardi Trophy for a reason. This would end up being one of the most improbable runs in NFL history, and a lot would have to fall into Pittsburgh favor.

There's no denying that the Steelers' strength lays on the defensive side of the ball. They give up the sixth-fewest points per game with the fifth-best red zone defense, and Pittsburgh averages the eighth-most takeaways per game. The defensive front also has the 7th-best pass rush win rate and 11th-best run stuff win rate.

T.J. Watt has put up monster numbers once again with a league-best 19.0 sacks while touting the fourth-best pass rush win rate (25%) in the league, per ESPN. However, Watt sustained a Grade 2 MCL sprain in Week 18 and has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Bills. Plus, four-time Pro Bowl safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has been out since Week 14 with a knee injury; Fitzpatrick's status is questionable as of Tuesday afternoon with coach Mike Tomlin remaining "optimistic" for his return.

As if the Steelers' road to a deep playoff run wasn't difficult enough, they will be without their best player for at least a couple of weeks. If Minkah is also out on Sunday, Pittsburgh could kiss their Super Bowl hopes goodbye. They cannot afford to be without the two best players on their roster.

The weather is swinging in the Steelers' favor, though; Buffalo is on track to be slammed with snow over the next few days. If this extends into gameday, Pittsburgh could be in business as their best hope is to compete in ugly, low-scoring games while winning the turnover battle.

Controlling the run game will also be a key, and the Steelers are averaging 178.5 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry over the last two games. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have become a two-headed monster. Warren has impressed for most of the season with 5.4 yards per carry and 9.5 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE). Harris has been like a man that's been possessed over his last two games with 27.5 RYOE while averaging 117.0 rushing yards and 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game.

Riding the red-hot run game could be Pittsburgh's key to success.

Why The Steelers Might Fall Short

There are plenty of reason why the Steelers could fall short, but let's keep it short and sweet. First off, the injury to Watt is an obvious concern. Replacing a player of his caliber -- a former Defensive Player of the Year -- is a very tall task. Naturally, the pass rush's production will likely decline without one of the best defenders in football. This could also lead to fewer takeaways for the defense.

The defense has also allowed a load of yards for most of the season, ranking 12th-to-last with 342.1 allowed yards per contest. The unit also has the 12th-worst marks in surrendered yards per rushing attempt and yards per passing attempt.

Pittsburgh's weak passing game is the biggest problem. It is numberFire's ninth-worst schedule-adjusted passing offense while averaging the fourth-fewest passing attempts per game and the eighth-fewest passing yards per contest.

Mason Rudolph has taken over as the starting quarterback. He excelled in Week 16 and Week 17 with 0.34 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB). However, Rudolph's play sharply dropped in Week 18 with -0.31 EPA/DB. I'm going with the larger sample size, which is Rudolph gauges as a career backup QB with only five starts since 2019.

With an unreliable passing game led by backup signal-caller, winning a Super Bowl seems far out of reach. Then, add the fact that the Steelers will be facing one of the NFL's hottest teams on the road to open the postseason and will be without their best player, and it doesn't look good for Pittsburgh.

Final Verdict

As I prefaced Pittsburgh's chances for winning Super Bowl LVIII, this is simply a longshot candidate. The Steelers have the longest odds to win it all for a reason. The offense has been up and down for most of the season, and their QB play has been a constant struggle.

Pittsburgh could be one and done as 10-point underdogs against the Bills in the Wild Card round. The defense could even have a difficult time as the unit will be without one of the best pass rushers in football.

If you're still inclined to back the Steelers to win it all, a low-stakes bet is wise.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.