Louisville vs South Florida College Basketball Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament First Round

The No. 6 seed Louisville Cardinals (23-10) and the No. 11 seed South Florida Bulls (25-8) will meet in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday at 1:30 p.m. ET. The contest airs on TNT.

Before you place your bet on this matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the NCAA basketball odds and spreads you need to know.

Louisville vs. South Florida Game Info and Odds

• Game day: Thursday, March 19, 2026
• Game time: 1:30 p.m. ET
• TV channel: TNT
• Location: Buffalo, New York
• Arena: KeyBank Center

Louisville vs. South Florida Picks and Prediction

All college basketball win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Louisville win (59%)

Read these betting trends and insights before you wager on Thursday's Louisville-South Florida spread (Louisville -4.5) or over/under (163.5 points).

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Louisville vs. South Florida: ATS Betting Stats and Trends

• Louisville is 16-17-0 ATS this season.
• South Florida is 17-14-0 ATS this season.
• Louisville (14-11) covers a lower percentage of games when it is favored by 4.5 points or more this season (56%) than South Florida (1-0) does as a 4.5+-point underdog (100%).
• Against the spread, the Cardinals have fared better when playing at home, covering 10 times in 17 home games, and three times in 11 road games.
• This season, the Bulls are 8-5-0 at home against the spread (.571 winning percentage). Away, they are 7-5-0 ATS (.583).

Louisville vs. South Florida: Moneyline Betting Stats

• Louisville has come away with 16 wins in the 23 contests it has been listed as the moneyline favorite in this season.
• The Cardinals have a win-loss record of 15-3 when favored by -200 or better by oddsmakers this year.
• South Florida has gone 1-3 in games it was listed as the moneyline underdog (winning 25% of those games).
• The Bulls have played as a moneyline underdog of +164 or longer in only one game this season, which they lost.
• Louisville has an implied victory probability of 66.7% according to the moneyline set for this matchup.

Louisville vs. South Florida Head-to-Head Comparison

• Louisville put up 78.5 points per game and allowed 69.5 last season, ranking them 65th in college basketball on offense and 89th on defense.
• Louisville collected 34.6 rebounds per game and conceded 30.2 boards last season, ranking 47th and 114th, respectively, in college basketball.
• With 13.9 assists per game last year, Louisville was 148th in college basketball.
• In terms of turnovers, Louisville was 150th in the nation in committing them (10.9 per game) last year. It was 93rd in forcing them (12.2 per game).
• Last season South Florida posted 74.4 points per game (155th-ranked in college basketball) and allowed 74.5 points per contest (251st-ranked).
• South Florida ranked 214th in the nation with 31.3 rebounds per contest, but it allowed 34.6 rebounds per game, which ranked 15th-worst in college basketball.
• South Florida averaged 14.3 assists per game, which ranked them 119th in the country.
• With 10.7 turnovers per game, South Florida ranked 135th in the country. It forced 12.4 turnovers per contest, which ranked 79th in college basketball.

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