The NFL is so driven by quarterback play that it's extremely rare for a team to win the previous year's Super Bowl and not have a modest chance to defend their title.

The Kansas City Chiefs are no exception. In some part due to a flailing division that saw two quarterbacks benched and two coaches fired, the Chiefs once again emerged from the AFC West with its title and the conference's three seed -- win or lose in Week 18.

Their season wasn't exactly kept secret due to a famous addition within the fanbase, but K.C. enters this postseason a bit more unsettled and nervous than usual. Barring two massive upsets, they'll likely hit the road in the postseason for the first time in Patrick Mahomes' tenure with the team.

Are the defending champs primed to repeat? Let's take a look at Kansas City's case to win Super Bowl LVIII.

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +950 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (tied 4th-best)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 5.8% (5th-best)

Kansas City Chiefs Conference Championship Odds

• +430 (tied 2nd-best)

Kansas City Chiefs Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 9th
  • Passing: 12th
  • Overall: 10th
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 26th
  • Passing: 3rd
  • Overall: 4th

Why The Chiefs Could Win It All

With no knowledge or history of the team at all, you'd point to the Chiefs' defense as the reason they could win this year's Super Bowl. If it's Mahomes and the offense that need to kick into gear, this is still a very dangerous threat for the title.

K.C. is fourth overall in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings, and it's helpful that's largely based on pass defense with Lamar Jackson and one of the AFC East's top quarterbacks likely hosting K.C. in the latter rounds of the playoffs.

On offense, it's been a struggle for K.C. compared to their league-best offense (by a wide margin) a year ago that won them Super Bowl LVII in a shootout, but they're not bad by any means.

Isiah Pacheco has emerged as a three-down threat, and he's 12th in the NFL in rushing yards over expectation per game (6.5 RYOE/g) among backs who have played at least 10 contests.

Mahomes' greatness largely goes without saying in the passing game, and their inability to find a reliable target beyond Travis Kelce has been eliminated late in the season. Rookie Rashee Rice has at least 60 receiving yards in five of his last six games since getting an uptickin snap rate to at least 65.0% starting with Week 12.

The pieces are all there for another run toward the AFC Championship game, which they haven't missed since Mahomes became the starting QB in 2018.

Why The Chiefs Might Fall Short

These reasons have been few and far between in previous seasons, but there are a litany of obstacles that have left the Chiefs with their worst record (potentially 10-7) in Mahomes' tenure.

Most of them were evidenced in an ugly Christmas Day loss to the Las Vegas Raiders for all to see. In that game, the Chiefs ceded four sacks, two takeaways, and two defensive touchdowns. Their 27 turnovers as an offense are tied for sixth-most in the NFL, and the offensive line's 27% pressure rate allowed is tied for 15th-highest in the NFL.

Plus, as Rice has emerged, Kelce's production -- now at age 34 -- isn't quite as ironclad as it used to be. Unlikely to play in Week 18, he's failed to eclipse 60 receiving yards in six of his last eight contests to end the season.

On defense, K.C. has a significant issue stopping the run compared to most of their peers in the Super Bowl mix, and the Raiders won that contest without completing a pass in the second half. The Baltimore Ravens and the Buffalo Bills are the top-two rushing offenses in the entire NFL, per numberFire, so that's a crucial weakness that could send them home in a potential matchup with the AFC's top-two teams.

By and large, teams have had a far easier time stopping the Chiefs this season than any other in the Mahomes era, and if their offense was combined with one of the lesser defenses in said era, they may not have been a playoff team. It's been an odd twist from such a historically reliable group.

Final Verdict

With all of this in mind, looking to "value bet" the Chiefs is nearly impossible.

They're the defending Super Bowl champions, boast the league's consensus top quarterback, and Swifties have even flooded the market to cheer for Taylor's guy. It's a lot of noise in a betting market to fly under the radar.

From that standpoint, you'd want a pretty invincible product to still lay down cash, and the 2023-24 Chiefs have been far from that. They're beatable on defense via the ground, and the passing game just hasn't had the same magic as prior seasons. Plus, we've never seen this core leave the comforts of Arrowhead to reach the Super Bowl, and they'll now be doing so as an inferior version.

You truly can't ever count out Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and the invaluable experience they have from being there and doing the darn thing. However, there's only been one repeat Super Bowl winner since 2000 -- and none since 2005 -- for a reason.

The "brain drain" of losing key coaches and free agents is a real, tangible impact that appears to have taken a toll on the Chiefs. They'll be favored to win a Wild Card game in the playoffs' first weekend, but for the first time in a half decade, it'll be a bit of a surprise if they're hoisting this year's Lombardi Trophy.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.