The Case for the Green Bay Packers to Win Super Bowl LVIII

With a win over the Chicago Bears in Week 18, the Green Bay Packers secured the No. 7 seed in the NFC. The Packers logged a 9-8 record and are slated to square off against the Dallas Cowboys on the road during Wild Card Weekend.

Much has been made about the Packers deploying the youngest roster in the NFL this season. For the first season since 2007, Green Bay also had a quarterback not named Aaron Rodgers orchestrating the offense as Jordan Love finally got his chance to start.

The lack of experience on both sides of the ball is among the handful of reasons why the Packers are considered a long shot to win the Super Bowl. Let's take a look at Green Bay's case to win Super Bowl LVIII.

Green Bay Packers Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +10000 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (second-worst)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 0.2% (tied for second-worst)

Green Bay Packers Conference Championship Odds

• +4300 (worst)

Green Bay Packers Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 15th
  • Passing: 5th
  • Overall: 8th
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 26th
  • Passing: 21st
  • Overall: 23rd

Why the Packers Could Win It All

While many expected the Packers to be in a rebuilding year following the departure of Rodgers, Matt LaFleur and the team certainly didn't take the media's opinion of them to heart. The success of the Packers can largely be attributed to Love exceeding expectations in his debut season as the starting signal-caller.

Love finished with the second-most passing touchdowns (32) -- behind only Dak Prescott. The strong-armed quarterback was also tied for the 11th-highest average intended air yards (IAY) at 8.5 yards. Despite some concerns around his accuracy, Love undoubtedly did enough to prove he deserves a chance to be the long-term answer at quarterback for the Packers.

Aside from Love, the young pass catchers on the Packers aided the offense in evolving into an effective group. All six of Green Bay's top receivers are in their first or second year in the NFL. A combination of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft gave Love a dynamic arsenal to target through the air.

Aaron Jones remains a steady option out of the backfield. The veteran back is tied for the ninth-most yards per attempt (4.6) among running backs entering the playoffs and ranked 25th this year -- among all backs -- in rushing yards over expected per carry (0.12), according to NFL's Next Gen Stats.

The defense isn't a superior unit, but they have a few notable contributors. Rashan Gary and Preston Smith lead the pass-rushing department while Quay Walker emerged as a formidable inside linebacker in his sophomore campaign. The offense is the definitive strength of the Packers ahead of a hopeful playoff run.

Why the Packers Might Fall Short

The most glaring weakness of the Packers is unquestionably the defense. Green Bay's passing D is tied for the 10th-worst expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) allowed. Since their bye week in Week 6, there have been five quarterbacks who threw for 260-plus yards and multiple touchdowns against the Packers.

Stopping the run has also been a struggle for the Packers this season. Green Bay is surrendering the 14th-most rushing yards over expected per attempt.

Drawing the Cowboys on the road in the Wild Card Round is unfortunate for the Packers. The Cowboys are a perfect 8-0 at home and scored fewer than 30 points at home just once. Dallas' high-octane passing attack could feast.

On the flip side, the Packers are 4-5 on the road and won't host a postseason contest at any point.

Final Verdict

The youth on the Packers' roster is worth noting come playoff time, and Love's development is still an ongoing process. There are reasons for optimism moving forward, but the current roster will need more time to evolve in years to come before they are competing for a Super Bowl.

There's an argument to be made that the Packers boast the worst defense among the 14 playoff teams, although numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics rank the defenses of the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles as worse. It is going to be up to the Love-led offense to play mistake-free football and outperform teams who have better rosters than them.

While it could be fun to toss a dart on the Packers to make an improbable Super Bowl run, it's extremely tough to envision a scenario where they are representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Even with the Packers putting together an impressive season considering the circumstances, more time is needed before their exciting young roster is a legitimate contender to win a Super Bowl.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.