We hear it almost every season: This is the Dallas Cowboys' year. But the Cowboys have not appeared in an NFC Championship game since 1996 -- their last Super Bowl win. Year in and year out, Dallas seems to stumble when it matters most.

I cannot deny that this year actually does feel a little different for the Cowboys. With a victory over the Washington Commanders in Week 18, Dallas will win the NFC East and clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC. There's a great chance this happens with the Cowboys at -1350 to win the NFC East, per FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL divisional odds.

Dallas has been a beast at home with a 16-game winning streak in AT&T Stadium. With two home games in the playoffs, the Cowboys could finally appear in an NFC Championship game. Can they take it even further, though? Is a Super Bowl win in the picture? Let's dive into Dallas' case for winning Super Bowl LVIII.

Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +850 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (third-best)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 11.6% (third-best)

Dallas Cowboys Conference Championship Odds

• +380 (second-best)

Dallas Cowboys Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 11th
  • Passing: 2nd
  • Overall: 2nd
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 13th
  • Passing: 6th
  • Overall: 7th

Why The Cowboys Could Win It All

As usual, the Cowboys certainly look the part on the paper. The roster is loaded with talent, Dak Prescott is having one of the best seasons of his eight-season career, and Dallas is a top-tier unit on both sides of the ball.

Dak's performance is perhaps the biggest talking point for the Cowboys. As most of us know, football is now driven by quarterback play. If your signal-caller cannot perform in the biggest moments, good luck going far in the playoffs. Prescott has done his part with 0.14 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB) -- the third-best mark in the league. Most importantly, his turnover woes have been cured as he has thrown 8 interceptions this year, compared to 15 a campaign ago.

You can't mention the Cowboys' passing offense without touching on CeeDee Lamb's outstanding season. Ahead of Week 18, he ranks second in the NFL with 1,651 receiving yards, has the third-most receiving touchdowns (10), and leads the league with 122 receptions. CeeDee has played a huge role in Prescott's outstanding season, which also includes a league-best 32 passing touchdowns for Dak.

The defense has been excellent, as well, giving up the fifth-fewest points per game and fifth-fewest passing yards per game. However, the unit has not been as opportunistic as last season, averaging 1.4 takeaways per game (16th-most), compared to 1.8 last season (most).

The defensive front remains elite, led by Micah Parsons (13.0 sacks), and touts ESPN's top pass rush win rate. Parsons has been a game wrecker with the best individual pass rush win rate (37%) while drawing the most double teams in the league (34%) among edge rushers, per ESPN. Cornerback DaRon Bland paces leads the league with eight interceptions, as well.

Dallas has the passing game covered on both sides of the ball. Plus, the Cowboys average the third-fewest giveaways per game. This team is capable of consistently winning the passing game and the turnover battle, which certainly builds an intriguing Super Bowl case.

Why The Cowboys Might Fall Short

There's reasonable points for why Dallas could fall short yet again. Let's not wait to get into it. The elephant in the room is the San Francisco 49ers. It seems unlikely that the Cowboys can take down the Niners, who are the Super Bowl favorite at +210.

Dallas lost to San Francisco in the last two playoffs, and they were dismantled on the road in Week 5's regular-season head-to-head matchup (42-10). If the Cowboys are to make Super Bowl LVIII, they will probably have to go through the 49ers in San Francisco. That'll be a tall task.

The Niners are simply a bad matchup for the Cowboys. Dallas has consistently lost in the trenches versus the 49ers, and San Francisco has numberFire's fourth-best adjusted run offense. The Cowboys' defense has struggled -- at times -- to stop the run, giving up 4.2 yards per carry (16th-worst). The most recent example was a 31-10 loss in Week 15 against the Buffalo Bills in which Dallas' defense allowed 266 rushing yards.

This also goes back to Dallas' struggles on the road. They've been dominant at home but own a mere 3-5 record on the road.

Winning the run game could be the biggest key for the Cowboys' Super Bowl hopes. The defense must find a way to slow the ground game, and the offense cannot put everything on Dak and the aerial attack. Dallas averages the 14th-fewest yards per carry (4.1 yards). Tony Pollard has disappointed with only 4.0 yards per carry and -1.3 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) on the season.

When the temperatures drop and the NFL transitions to the playoffs, the running game usually becomes more important. If the Cowboys cannot improve on the ground, this may put too much pressure on Prescott and the passing game.

Final Verdict

This could be Dallas' most successful season since their Super Bowl win in 1996. Making the NFC Championship game would certainly be a major win, but the road may end there.

I'm not sure how the Cowboys can get past the 49ers. It may require some key absences for San Francisco; injuries have been a concern at times for the Niners. If Dallas is to win it all, Dak will likely have to be outstanding, and the defense must find ways to stop the run.

At +850, the Cowboys could still be worth a bet to win Super Bowl LVIII, especially if they secure the No. 2 seed with a victory in Week 18. If the Cowboys get the 2 seed, Dallas will need to win -- at most -- only one true road game in a potential run to the Lombardi Trophy. The Cowboys' title hopes could simply be about finding a way to take out the 49ers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.