No team that is locked into the postseason before the NFL's final week has faced more adversity this season than the Cleveland Browns.

Cleveland has overcome injuries to their highly compensated star quarterback (Deshaun Watson) and running back (Nick Chubb) to still post an 11-5 record through 16 games. If not for a dominant Baltimore Ravens squad in their same division, the Browns might also have won the AFC North on the back of an elite defense and admirable fill-in duty from key offensive contributors, including 38-year-old Joe Flacco coming off the couch in the middle of the season.

All of this has Kevin Stefanski a heavy favorite in the 2023-24 Coach of the Year odds market -- and not many are arguing his case. From the AFC's fifth seed, can the Browns make an improbable, odds-defying run toward the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy? Let's take a look at Cleveland's case to win Super Bowl LVIII.

Cleveland Browns Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +3500 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (10th-best)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 0.5% (10th-best)

Cleveland Browns Conference Championship Odds

• +1800 (6th-best)

Cleveland Browns Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 24th
  • Passing: 27th
  • Overall: 27th
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 7th
  • Passing: 1st
  • Overall: 1st

Why The Browns Could Win It All

The saying goes "defense wins championships", so the best overall unit in the dance has to be in consideration to win it all, right?

Cleveland's D has been ferocious in veteran coordinator Jim Schwartz's first year. They've posted a 37% pressure rate (sixth-best in the NFL) that has turned into 46 sacks (sixth-most) and nearly locked up the Defensive Player of the Year odds market for Myles Garrett (-220). They've also allowed the 10th-fewest total rushing yards (1,010) with exceptional efficiency.

numberFire's top overall ranking comes from weighting schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) from the defense that reflects better than counting stats; Watson and the struggling offense left them several short fields and messes to clean up all season.

However, since Joe Flacco's first full week of practice in Week 14, the veteran has topped 300 yards passing in each game, which has been especially notable with three of them coming against numberFire's top-15 defenses.

While most wrote off any sort of contention for the Browns long ago, the recent pulse on offense could be lethal with one of the league's best defenses. After all, they emerged from the league's toughest projected division with 11 wins. That has to count for something.

They'll get the AFC South winner before potential road dates with the AFC East winner and the Ravens, whom they beat in M&T Bank Stadium in Week 10 by a score of 33-31.

Why The Browns Might Fall Short

Despite Flacco's passing volume, the efficiency just hasn't been there on offense for the Browns in the same stretch.

They've posted -0.02 Offensive NEP per play -- good for 26th in the NFL. As you'd expect for an offense built around Chubb, Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt have had a hard time filling his massive, talented shoes. Cleveland's instance on involving Hunt (-7.2 rushing yards over expectation per game) has actively hurt the team.

Plus, for as good as Amari Cooper and David Njoku closed the season in their respective last contests before injuries or rest, this isn't a deep core of wideouts, and they've lost now three starting tackles throughout the course of the year.

They're significant underdogs to win it all because the offense hasn't consistently produced at a championship level, and it's highly unlikely they'll play a home playoff game this year, and that hurts. Cleveland went 8-1 at home this season -- but just 3-4 on the road.

Final Verdict

It's pretty unreal that Joe Flacco is in an eerily similar spot in 2024 that he was in 2012.

That year, Flacco caught fire in the postseason to carry Baltimore, one of the league's best defenses as a four seed, past the lethal, potent, and favored Denver Broncos and New England Patriots en route to the Super Bowl. It would require a similar lightning-in-a-bottle run with this crew.

Is that worth wagering large stakes that it happens? Likely not. The Browns (27th in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings) would be the worst offense since the 2015 Broncos (24th) to win it all, and Denver had home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs that year behind a historic defense.

Cleveland has allowed at least 25 points in seven games this year, so while excellent by modern NFL standards, I wouldn't consider them "historic".

It's definitely possible, but nF's 0.5% assigned chance to win the Super Bowl seems appropriate, and that doesn't show value at +3500 odds (2.8% implied).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.