The Case for the Buffalo Bills to Win Super Bowl LVIII

The Buffalo Bills won six of their final seven games to secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC. Despite a rough mid-season stretch which resulted in firing their offensive coordinator, Buffalo enters the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the league and a top contender to win the Super Bowl.

It didn't come easy, however. The Bills entered Week 18 with a realistic chance to miss the playoffs but edged out the Miami Dolphins to secure their fourth consecutive AFC East title.

Buffalo has been here before. Although Josh Allen has propelled his squad to at least one postseason win in three straight years, they haven't gotten over the hump... yet. Can the offense continue to produce despite shaky turnover numbers? Will the defense be able to outlast the injury bug? Let's take a look at Buffalo's case to win Super Bowl LVIII.

Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Odds

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

• +650 to Win Super Bowl LVIII (third-best)
• Super Bowl win probability, per numberFire: 18.8% (third-best)

Buffalo Bills Conference Championship Odds

• +280 (second-best)

Buffalo Bills Statistical Recap and Analysis

Data and stats via numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

• Offensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 1st
  • Passing: 6th
  • Overall: 3rd
• Defensive Rankings
  • Rushing: 19th
  • Passing: 7th
  • Overall: 7th

Why The Bills Could Win It All

Buffalo's Super Bowl chances start with Josh Allen. Though most teams' success hinges on quarterback play, the Bills feel especially QB dependent. Allen was PFF's highest-graded quarterback this season, ranking fourth in passing yards (4,307) and tying for fifth in passing touchdowns (29). Josh continues to be one of the best dual-threats in the game; he tied for the most rushing touchdowns (15) and finished fourth in rushing yards (519) among QBs.

Allen's production wasn't just empty calories, either. He finished seventh in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per play and fourth in Passing Success Rate, per numberFire.

The supporting cast, although not spectacular, is sound. James Cook averaged the fourth-most scrimmage yards (93.5) among running backs. Stefon Diggs (PFF's 19th-ranked WR) remains an upper-echelon receiver while young bucks Khalil Shakir (34th) and Dalton Kincaid (PFF's 19th-ranked TE) flashed down the stretch.

Buffalo has miraculously avoided injury on the offensive line. That unit entered Week 18 ranked fifth in PFF's offensive line rankings. They allowed the fewest sacks and 10th-fewest pressure per game, according to the site.

Defensively, Buffalo has survived an onslaught of injuries and remained a top 10 unit within numberFire's metrics. Although the Bills were just 15th in pressure rate, they managed the 4th-most sacks in the NFL and the 3rd-most takeaways.

Buffalo's defensive strength resides in the secondary. They held opposing passing attacks to the ninth-fewest yards per attempt and the eighth-lowest passer rating.

They really locked it down on the side of the ball during the second half. After their Week 13 bye, the Bills gave up just 16.8 points per game over the final five weeks.

Why The Bills Might Fall Short

Obviously, quarterback play has a huge role in the outcome of games. That's true for every team and Buffalo is no different. Josh Allen was noticeably more inefficient in losses than wins. His 0.24 Passing NEP per play in wins would've ranked second over the course of the full season.

In losses? Well, he registered just 0.09 Passing NEP per play. That'd rank 17th over the whole season.

A lot of that boils down to turnovers. Allen threw the second-most interceptions (18) and lost the third-most fumbles (3) in the league. You can live with that when Allen is making up for it with big plays, but it's worth noting that half of his 18 interceptions came in Buffalo's six losses. In losses, he posted a 9:9 touchdown to interception ratio -- compared to a 20:9 ratio in wins.

Allen's mishaps will likely have the biggest impact on a potential playoff exit, but it's fair to be concerned about the defense, as well. The injury bug has been cruel to the Bills this season, and they lost two more defenders -- cornerback Rasul Douglas and linebacker Tyrel Dodson -- in the season finale.

They've managed to play well on that end despite those injuries, but their defense isn't without question marks.

Of particular concern: the rush D. Buffalo finished in the bottom five in yards per carry allowed and just 18th in adjusted rush defense. That could prove critical in the AFC where four of the six remaining teams rank in the top half in Rushing NEP per play. That includes their first-round opponent (the Pittsburgh Steelers) and two of the other division winners (the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs).

On top of that, Buffalo also averaged the seventh-most penalties per game and were in the bottom half of the league in third down conversion rate allowed. With an already-shorthanded unit, the Bills can't afford to beat themselves -- something that happened far too often in 2023.

Final Verdict

The Bills didn't cruise through the regular season as easily as they have in past years, but they still managed to win their division and snag the No. 2 seed. They went 5-1 against playoff teams along the way, so there's no questioning their ability to show up against top competition.

Buffalo should benefit from playing at home in the first two rounds, especially if they draw Patrick Mahomes -- someone who's eliminated them in two of the last three years but has never played a road playoff game.

Allen and Sean McDermott have been knocking on the door for years now. If the defense holds up and Allen's good outweighs the bad, they'll have a strong chance to make it out of the AFC. They deservedly carry the third-best Super Bowl odds in the league, for it wouldn't shock anyone to see them hoist the Lombardi Trophy when all's said and done.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.