The 5 Most Overrated Teams in the 2025 Men’s College Basketball Tournament

Let's get this out of the way: it's no small feat to make the D1 men's college basketball tournament and to become one of 68 teams with a chance to end the season as champions.

But nobody wants to build brackets around teams that might be getting a little too much love from the public and from how their seed suggests they'll perform.

That's why I like to look at historical trends and see which teams may be a little overrated (and underrated!) entering the 2025 D1 men's college basketball tournament.

Here are the five squads (seeded 12 or lower) with the largest gap in their adjusted net rating (based on BartTorvik's adjusted offense and defense metrics) and the historical net rating of teams with the same seed (since 2008).

Most Overrated Teams in the 2025 Tournament

Memphis Tigers (5 Seed, West Region)

• Adjusted Net Rating: +12.8
• Historical Seed Net Rating: +20.2
• Differential: -7.4

What's interesting this season is that -- with Torvik's numbers factored into the selection process -- there aren't that many overseeded teams in the tournament.

However, the main standout by this measure is the Memphis Tigers, whose adjusted net rating of +12.8 is 7.4 points shy of the historical average for a 5 seed over the last 16 tournaments.

Their net rating is more indicative of the overall team strength of an 11 or 12 seed.

Overall, Memphis ranks 60th in BartTorvik's net ratings, and they're 51st via KenPom's numbers (with a +15.4 adjusted net rating).

Interestingly, they're 21st in Torvik's Wins Above Bubble (WAB) metric (+4.6), and KenPom has them ranked 20th in its Luck metric.

A foot injury to Tyrese Hunter further puts into question their chance of success as a 5 seed.

But they do have a 6-1 record in Quad 1 games, losing only to Auburn (the 1 seed in the South) in that sample.

Oregon Ducks (5 Seed, East Region)

• Adjusted Net Rating: +17.8
• Historical Seed Net Rating: +20.2
• Differential: -2.4

A full 5.0 points better than Memphis by adjusted net rating at Torvik, the Oregon Ducks are still grading out as an overrated team as a 5 seed. (A +17.8 net rating is more along the lines of a historical 7 seed.)

Oregon is well-tested this season with 15 Quad 1 games (and an 8-7 record in them), as well as an 8-0 record in Quad 2 games.

It's also worth noting that they're a better team via KenPom's adjusted net rating (+20.2) than at Torvik, so perhaps they're a bit better than this number suggests as a balanced team with +5.3 Wins Above the Bubble, per Torvik.

Saint John's Red Storm (2 Seed, West Region)

• Adjusted Net Rating: +23.5
• Historical Seed Net Rating: +25.3
• Differential: -1.8

Saint John's enters the men's tournament with their first regular-season Big East championship since the early '90s under head coach Rick Pitino.

Ranked 15th in adjusted net rating at Torvik and 11th at KenPom, it's not that Saint John's isn't a top-tier squad. Just that the 2 seed designation is a bit steep compared to past 2 seeds in tournament history.

The Red Storm own the top adjusted defensive rating at KenPom (and are second at Torvik) but possess a subpar (for a title contender) offense, ranking outside the top-60 at both sources.

Saint John's also is shooting just 30.4% from three, ranking them 337th in the nation this season.

This team can still be dangerous, but they'll need to stifle opponents and start to make more shots to contend for a title.

Drake Bulldogs (11 Seed, West Region)

• Adjusted Net Rating: +14.1
• Historical Seed Net Rating: +14.6
• Differential: -0.5

While a 0.5-point gap compared to historical trends is barely worth noting, this does speak to how strong the field is this season and how "accurate" the committee graded things based on the advanced data.

First-year head coach Ben McCollum has gotten this Drake squad to 30 wins based on stellar defense (44th in adjusted defensive rating, 10th in defensive turnover rate, and 22nd in defensive rebounding).

The offense is middling, but they like to slow things down (they are last in the nation in Torvik's and KenPom's adjusted pace metrics by over a full possession from any other team).

That's a chaos-inducing recipe for a double-digit seed.

Michigan State Spartans (2 Seed, South Region)

• Adjusted Net Rating: +24.9
• Historical Seed Net Rating: +25.3
• Differential: -0.4

Ranked 13th overall at Torvik (and 8th at KenPom), Michigan State is anything close to a bad team, yet they do rate out as the second-weakest 2 seed in the tournament.

They're more than 3.0 points worse than Tennessee and Alabama, the other 2 seeds in the tournament not on this list.

This is yet another team that has a strong defense (top-five at KenPom and Torvik) but an offense sitting outside the top-25. Their three-point shooting (30.8%) ranks them outside the top-300 in the nation.

They're 9-4 since the start of February and 9-3 against Quad 1 opponents.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets if your first $5+ bet wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.