Texas Children's Houston Open: Betting Picks, Win Simulations, Course History, Key Stats

The PGA Tour's march to major season continues on, this week to Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston for the fourth time ever.

Here's all you need to know for this week.

Memorial Park Golf Course Info

All course data from GCSAA unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 70
• Distance: 7,412 yards (long for a par 70)
• Average Fairway Width: 31.4 yards (36th of 88 courses)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Poa overseed
• Stimpmeter: N/A
• Recent Winning Scores: -16, -10, -13
• Recent Cut Lines: -1, +1, +3

Memorial Park Golf Course Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Driving Distance
• Bogey Avoidance

This is one of the most neutral courses we see in terms of weighting key stats versus the average Tour course. That doesn't mean that everything is equally important, just that the usual important stats are as important as they usually are.

That still means approach and putting are on the list, and relatively tough scoring conditions puts more of an emphasis on bogey avoidance than making birdies.

Best Golfers at Memorial Park

These golfers have the best strokes gained numbers in recent years at this course.

Texas Children's Houston Open Win Simulations

Here's what my model -- based on long-term scoring trends, recency adjustments, and field-strength weighting -- has to say about this week's event.

Texas Children's Houston Open Betting Picks to Target

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds based on my win simulation model and/or my overall stats model, which accounts for the most important stats for this week's event. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Scottie Scheffler

First Round Leader (+1200)

While I can't quite get behind Scheffler at +270 to win outright, my first-round leader model shows value on him at +1200 to lead after the first round.

Scheffler -- over the last 50 rounds -- hold a true strokes gained average of +2.82 -- with Sahith Theegala next up in that span at +1.57 and nobody else above a +1.22.

My model shows value here, and it's a way to consider getting exposure to Scheffler at a course where he has played well.

Sahith Theegala

To Win (+1800)

Theegala keeps knocking on the door, yes, but what really stands out to me is his much-improved iron play. Theegala ranks 14th in this field in strokes gained: approach over the last 50 rounds, and he is up to 33rd over the last 12 months.

He's gaining +0.48 strokes gained: approach with his irons in 2024, up from +0.28 in 2023 and +0.21 in 2022.

Additionally, Theegala is a top-two putter by strokes gained and can support that with 92nd-percentile putting splits from within 15 feet.

With Scottie Scheffler soaking up so much win equity, it's tough to navigate this week for outrights, but Theegala is the top option -- if you aren't interested in Scheffler's +260 odds.

Beau Hossler

To Win (+6000)
To Finish Top 10 (+450)
To Finish Top 20 (+200)

Hossler is a really good all-around golfer despite not being an elite iron player. He ranks 31st off the tee, 13th around the green, and 16th in putting over the last 50 rounds.

He's 65th in approach in that span.

His putting, though, puts him in the 92nd percentile from within 15 feet this season, and that's a great sign for his continued success on the greens.

Hossler is coming off two straight missed cuts (due to the iron play), so I don't want that to get lost here. With that factored into the data, however, he's a fair value across the board.

Doug Ghim

To Win (+7000)
To Finish Top 10 (+500)
To Finish Top 20 (+220)

Doug Ghim is one of the best tee-to-green players on Tour.

Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 7th in this field in T2G data and has top-10 driving accuracy. His putting ranks him 83rd.

However, in the 2024 season, Ghim ranks in the 72nd percentile in putting conversion from within 15 feet, a good sign for his long-term putting.

Michael Kim

To Finish Top 20 (+500)
To Finish Top 40 (+210)

Michael Kim has been a target of mine for a bit now, and while he has missed four of his last six cuts, his two made cuts were a T23 at the Puerto Rico Open and a T33 last week at the Valspar when he flashed with his irons and putting again.

That type of game was good enough for top-25 finishes in four of six events between August and January.

Victor Perez

Top French Golfer (+105)

Perez, per my weighted and adjusted data, is averaging a strokes gained: per round number of +0.07 over the last 12 months with Martin Trainer (-0.80) and Paul Barjon (-0.98) well off that pace.

When looking at my data for this market, Perez is roughly 53.0% likely to win the three-player Top French market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.