Texans at Chiefs Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for the Divisional Round

On Saturday at 4:30pm ET, the Houston Texans take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs.

The postseason is a fun time to play single-game NFL DFS on FanDuel.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Texans at Chiefs NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

It isn't a huge surprise to see Patrick Mahomes ($15,000) lead this slate in our NFL DFS projections by a decent margin despite averaging under 20 FanDuel points per game for the second straight campaign. This matchup has the weekend's lowest total, and if the results play out that way, even just a very good day from Mahomes could be enough to lead in scoring.

Mahomes showed a bit more upside from November onward, scoring 20+ FanDuel points in four of his nine starts. Having wideout Marquise Brown back for this postseason run could also elevate his production.

However, this Texans defense can't be dismissed after forcing Justin Herbert into four interceptions and four sacks in the Wild Card Round. Houston enters this stage with the second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense, and NFL Next Gen Stats credits them with the NFL's second-highest pressure rate. That might normally be enough to fade Mahomes as a popular MVP, but this slate is sorely lacking in viable MVPs, and he's quarterbacking an 8.5-point home favorite.

On Houston's side, the top MVP options are easy to identify between C.J. Stroud ($12,500), Joe Mixon ($14,000), and Nico Collins ($14,500).

In last week's lopsided win, Stroud posted a solid 18.48 FanDuel points, but it's telling that it's just the second time he's scored 18+ FanDuel points in his last 11 full games. On the bright side, the other instance came against these same Chiefs in Week 16. Kansas City is just 19th in adjusted pass defense, so it's possible we get a similar performance from Stroud again, but whether he can do enough to put up a slate-leading score still requires a leap of faith.

Assuming Houston keeps things somewhat competitive, Mixon should see his usual high-volume role after racking up 25 carries and 2 targets on his way to 119 scrimmage yards and a touchdown (19.4 FanDuel points) against the Los Angeles Chargers. However, the Chiefs have allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per game to running backs. He was still productive despite facing a tough Chargers D last week, though, so Mixon remains one of the top non-Mahomes MVP based solely on his elite usage.

That being said, Collins might be my favorite of the bunch when factoring in roster percentages. On Wild Card Weekend, he tallied 24.7 FanDuel points, tying for the team lead in targets (8) and easily leading the way in receptions (7) and receiving yards (122) while also scoring the lone receiving TD. That usage resulted in a 25.0% target share, 35.9% air yards share, and 33.3% red zone target share. We should see more of the same with this team sorely lacking wideout depth due to the season-ending injuries of both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell.

Our model projects Collins for the matchup's most targets (8.9), and his receiving yards prop is set at a lofty 82.5 that's well above anyone else on either side.

Flex Targets

Travis Kelce ($13,000) and Xavier Worthy ($11,500) -- These two both project for just under double-digit FanDuel points apiece, and while this K.C. passing attack remains somewhat unpredictable from week to week, Kelce and Worthy have been the most consistent pass-catching options. In four games since Worthy started seeing an uptick in snaps, he's led the team with a 24.2% target share and 34.6% red zone target share while Kelce's been second at 20.9% and 30.8%. It's hard to feel comfortable about any Chiefs pass catcher at MVP -- particularly with Marquise Brown back in the mix -- but at the very least, Kelce and Worthy are strong flex plays.

Kareem Hunt ($11,000) and Isiah Pacheco ($10,000) -- The hope for fantasy was that Pacheco would retake this backfield, but that simply hasn't happened, and we're instead stuck with a committee backfield with even Samaje Perine maintaining a minor role. While Pacheco and Hunt project for about 11-12 opportunities each, the latter has held the edge in red zone rush share together (36.4% to 13.6%). Barring some touchdown luck, it's hard to get excited about either one versus a Houston defense that's allowed the fourth-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs.

Marquise Brown ($10,500) -- Hollywood Brown has already made an impact in two games since returning to the lineup, logging a 19.0% target share despite playing under half the snaps in both weeks. He got up to a 43.1% snap rate his last time out and should theoretically see another bump after a two-week break. Our model is fairly bullish on Brown, projecting him for the game's third-most targets (6.7) and even placing him ahead of Worthy (5.8). Brown is an intriguing play in case he's elevated to a meatier role.

Dalton Schultz ($9,500) -- Schultz has been limited in practice this week, but as of this writing, there isn't any indication that he'll sit. While he hasn't had a bigger impact since Tank Dell went down, he projects for 5+ targets and is facing a Chiefs defense that's given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends.

DeAndre Hopkins ($9,500) -- In two games with Brown active, Hopkins has seen just a 10.1% target share, and his route rate dipped to 46.2% in Week 17. He's pretty much a touchdown-or-bust play at this point.

Harrison Butker ($9,000) and Ka'imi Fairbairn ($8,500) -- This game's low total points to the kickers having a better shot at cracking the optimal lineup. Butker has the easier path on the team with the 25.0 implied team total.

Kansas City Chiefs D/ST ($9,000) and Houston Texans D/ST ($8,500) -- A low-scoring game could also lead to a big fantasy outing from one of the defenses. Kansas City is once again the obvious option as a heavy favorite against a struggling offense; Establish the Run ranked Houston's offensive line as the worst in the playoffs, too. The Texans' defense could be sneaky after dismantling the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, though.

John Metchie III ($8,000) -- Metchie has earned a noticeable uptick in looks with Dell out, even tying Nico Collins for the team lead in targets (8) last week. It hasn't amounted to much yardage, but getting a team's No. 2 wideout at this salary is solid value.

Noah Gray ($8,000) -- Gray saw just two targets total in two games with Hollywood playing limited snaps. After a nice midseason run, his fantasy relevance might be toast.

Xavier Hutchinson ($6,000) -- Hutchinson hasn't moved the needle all season, but it's possible he gets an increased role on Saturday. The Texans parted ways with Diontae Johnson this week, and Robert Woods (hip) could sit after missing multiple practices. While we probably shouldn't get too excited, rostering Hutchinson leaves a ton of cap space for the other four slots.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.