At this point, we all know the story with Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin. The former third-round pick is an absolute baller but has been cursed with some of the worst quarterback play in the league since joining the pros in 2019.

No one could fault you for wanting to draft such a certified stud onto your fantasy squads.

But his current average draft position (ADP), according to FantasyPros' consensus ADP data, has him going near the back of the fourth round or early fifth round of most fantasy drafts.

You need to be getting top-end fantasy production out of those early draft picks, and with a fresh-faced, former fifth-round pick in Sam Howell at the quarterback position, it's hard to see McLaurin putting up the kind of career-best numbers he'd need to make to justify that ADP in fantasy.

Terry McLaurin Fantasy Football Projections

All projections via numberFire.com.

Positional Ranking: WR28

Projected Stats:

• 129.9 targets
• 78.4 receptions
• 1,041.3 receiving yards
• 5.3 receiving touchdowns

Terry McLaurin Fantasy Football Outlook

There's Still Plenty to Like About McLaurin

McLaurin has been the picture of consistency since entering the league.

His debut season saw him catching 919 yards and 7 touchdowns for a team whose next-most productive pass-catcher was a running back who totaled 378 receiving yards. He has since topped 1,000 receiving yards in each of his past three campaigns, scoring four, five, and five touchdowns across those seasons.

His efforts last year earned him an 83.5 receiver grade from ProFootballFocus, whose grading systems take some measures to isolate a receiver's play from his team situation. That mark ranked 15th in the league, while his 2.04 yards per route run helped him to a 16th-place finish.

He's produced those solid numbers in spite of his quarterback play during that time. He's caught passes from a veritable who's-who list of journeymen and backups, including Case Keenum, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke,Alex Smith, and late-career Carson Wentz.

Fantasy managers can daydream about the kind of numbers he could put up with competent quarterback play, let alone top-end play from his signal caller.

A Question Mark at Quarterback

Unfortunately, that level of quarterback play still seems like it's at least a year away.

The Commanders are set to start Sam Howell to open the season, leaving the quality of play very much up in the air heading into the year. Howell could feasibly even end up being the best quarterback McLaurin has played with so far while still only leading to the same kinds of receiving production we've been accustomed to.

Howell's draft day fall during the 2022 NFL Draft was quite a surprise, and the Commanders finally ended his slide in the fifth round. He had turned in some seriously strong numbers in his freshman and sophomore seasons at UNC, throwing 68 touchdowns to just 14 interceptions in those years, but struggled in his final campaign when college quarterbacks are expected to look like NFL-ready players.

NFL evaluators clearly saw enough issues in his tape to cause the league's 32 teams to pass on him multiple times, but he did earn a spot with the Commanders during the season once he got the chance.

We only saw Howell make one start in his rookie season. He took down a semi-competitive Dallas Cowboys team that rested some defensive players in a mostly-meaningless game while completing 11 of his 19 attempts for 169 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception while taking 3 sacks.

In that start, McLaurin caught 3 of his 6 targets for 74 yards and the team's lone receiving touchdown.

It was far from a total flop, and Howell did show some ability to connect with McLaurin in that outing. But it's hard to see him elevating McLaurin's ceiling with his play unless he takes a giant leap forward in 2023.

A Surprisingly Crowded Depth Chart

Question marks at the quarterback position aside, the Commanders are bringing a surprisingly feisty group of pass-catchers to the table for the upcoming season.

While McLaurin's counting stats have at times benefitted from him being the only show in town for Washington, he'll face some legitimate competition for looks in 2023.

A 2022 first-round pick, Jahan Dotson will be McLaurin's biggest competitor for attention this season. Dotson lived up to his first-round billing, leading the team in receiving touchdowns (7) despite playing in only 12 total games. Injuries limited him during the season, but he is now poised to take a step forward in his second year in the league.

Behind Dotson, the Commanders are returning target-hog Curtis Samuel for the upcoming season, as well as former top pass-catcher Logan Thomas. Running backs Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are each capable of stealing targets away from the team's wideouts, too.

McLaurin is no doubt the most talented player of the bunch, but he'll still need to outshine those teammates on a weekly basis to put up solid numbers for fantasy.

A High-Risk, Low-Reward Pick

McLaurin has been the picture of consistency since entering the league, but the numbers he has put up have landed him closer to WR3 territory in fantasy than one would assume based on his actual NFL talent.

numberFire's model has him finishing the year as the WR28 in fantasy, but early ADP data suggests that fantasy managers are drafting him as the WR19 on average. That is a pretty huge disparity between projection and draft capital, making McLaurin a huge risk in the early rounds of drafts.

With increased competition around him and a young, unproven starter at quarterback, you just can't take McLaurin at roughly 50th overall in fantasy drafts. His talent makes him a perennial candidate for an absurd, Stefon Diggs-esque breakout, but his situation is just too murky this season to bank on that happening in 2023.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.