Tee Higgins: Can the Bengals' WR2 Be Your WR1 in Fantasy Football?

With the NFL skewing increasingly towards strong passing games, the fantasy landscape has shifted over the years. Where the first rounds of fantasy drafts were previously jam-packed with running backs, we’ve seen a growing number of wide receivers creep into the early rounds in recent seasons. It almost seems to be coming to a boiling point in 2023 with almost eight receivers on average going in the first rounds of fantasy drafts this summer.

The demand for top-end receiver play has never been higher in the NFL than it is right now, and the fantasy landscape reflects that. That thirst has not only pushed the elite receivers into the first round of fantasy drafts but has also inflated the average draft position (ADP) of the position as a whole.

This year, there are a number of NFL WR2s going in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts. The Cincinnati Bengals have two representatives in that area. Ja'Marr Chase is an early first-round pick while teammate Tee Higgins has an ADP of 27th-overall, making him a late second- to early third-round pick in most leagues.

Higgins is an exciting talent in his own right and could be the WR1 for many NFL franchises, but is it worth drafting him at his current value when he isn’t expected to be the top producer on his own team?

Tee Higgins Fantasy Football Projection

Projections are via numberFire.

2023 Fantasy Points: 209.6 (144.9 in 2022)
2023 Positional Ranking: WR13
2023 Projected Stats:

• 146 Targets
• 93.8 Receptions
• 1,164.7 Receiving Yards
• 7.8 Receiving Touchdowns

Tee Higgins Fantasy Football Outlook

Can The Bengals Prop Up Two Fantasy WR1s?

It’s safe to say that there are high expectations for the Bengals this season – especially for their passing offense. According to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, the Bengals have the fourth-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+1000), Joe Burrow has the best odds to win the MVP (+700), and Ja’Marr Chase the best odds to win the Offensive Player of the Year award (+1100).

Higgins looks like the odd man out from an awards-based perspective, but he is certainly no slouch. The former second-round pick put up over 900 receiving yards as a rookie and has broken 1,000 receiving yards in each season since then, and his tall 6’4” frame makes him a good target in the redzone; he has at least six touchdowns in each of his three seasons thus far.

The Bengals are one of the most prolific passing offenses in the league. Only Patrick Mahomes averaged more passing yards per game than Burrow’s 279.7 mark last year, and he still ranked fifth in the league in total pass attempts despite playing one fewer game than most of his peers. Burrow throws a ton of passes, which translates well into point-per-reception fantasy points, and he throws those passes remarkably well, which helps his wideouts convert those passes into yards and touchdowns (and fantasy points) efficiently.

It’s just unfortunate for Higgins that he plays on the same team as Chase, who is truly one of the game’s best receivers. With Chase garnering such a large share of the offense, Higgins’ ceiling is necessarily capped. In 2022, Chase led Higgins in every receiving metric despite playing in four fewer games, illustrating the gap between the two players.

We did see Higgins catch fire in the four games Chase missed, though. Across those four games, Higgins averaged 6.5 catches, 92.8 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game. If we extrapolated those across a full 17-game season, we’d be looking at a legit WR1 in fantasy -- 110.5 catches, 1,577.6 yards, and 8.5 touchdowns. If there was ever another scenario where Chase missed time, Higgins would immediately become one of the most coveted receivers in fantasy football.

It can be hard to stomach spending such high draft capital on an NFL team’s WR2, but Higgins at least is the kind of talent you can bank on to put up strong numbers while playing behind another elite receiver. He still finished as the WR18 in total fantasy points last season even while missing one full game and despite flukily suffering injuries in the opening snaps of three others.

The Bear Case on the Tiger-Cats

The unfortunate scenario for Higgins would be if the Bengals’ offense failed to live up to expectations this season. Given that he’s not the team’s top dog, his production would likely be the first to suffer if things don’t go as planned.

Any receiver runs the risk of having their fantasy output take a hit if their starting quarterback goes down, and the Bengals’ wideouts would be no different. Higgins could take the biggest hit of anyone on his own team in that scenario.

The Bengals prioritize getting the ball into Chase’s hands – for good reason. He finished the 2022 season with 44 targets out of the slot and ranked 5th in the league in targets on screen passes (21) despite his 4 missed games. Those kinds of layups for the Bengals’ passing game would be the least likely to suffer if the Bengals turned to a backup quarterback.

Higgins, on the other hand, lined up almost exclusively on the outside for the Bengals last year, taking just 17.8% of his snaps and drawing just 18 targets from the slot all year. His 10.9-yard average depth of target (aDoT) led the team and helps illustrate where he thrives as a player –- winning deep down the field on the boundaries. In other words, the kinds of routes a backup quarterback would seem least likely to target.

The Bengals wouldn’t even necessarily need an injury at quarterback for Higgins’ role to suffer. If their offensive line regresses and forces Burrow to get rid of the ball even faster, his own average intended air yards per attempt (how far down the field he throws, on average) would trend lower toward the kinds of targets the team loves throwing Chase’s way. Higgins needs Burrow’s protection to hold up so he can work his way down the field.

Should You Take Higgins in the Second Round?

The upside case for Higgins – him becoming an elite WR1 for fantasy football – makes his late-second, early-third round ADP palatable. His median outcome in numberFire’s projections has him finishing the season as the WR13 in total points, making him a highly desirable asset for fantasy football teams – especially if he falls to the third rounds of your fantasy drafts.

However, taking a team’s WR2 comes with steep risks. The Bengals look like a good team, but his status as the team’s second option in the passing game leaves him vulnerable to rug-pulling if the wheels fall off of their offense. That makes it difficult to take him at his current ADP of 27th overall -- especially with potential bellcow running backs like Rhamondre Stevenson, Najee Harris, and Breece Hall available in that same region of fantasy drafts.

The early rounds of drafts are just as much about avoiding strikeouts as they are about hitting home runs, and as high as his ceiling may be, the risks just outweigh the potential rewards for Higgins.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.