Tampa Bay Downs Racing Picks: Tampa Bay Derby Day, 3/8/2025

Saturday, March 8 is the flagship day of the meet at Tampa Bay Downs Race Track in Oldsmar, Florida. The 12-race card features five stakes races, including the most eagerly awaited one of the meet: the Grade 3, $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby. The featured race awards 50 points to the winner, enough to virtually guarantee the winner a spot in the Run for the Roses.

In addition to the Kentucky Derby prep, there are four other stakes races on the card, including three graded events. Sophomore turf fillies shine in the Florida Oaks (G3), older turf fillies and mares clash in the Hillsborough Stakes (G2), older main-track males take the spotlight in the Challenger (G3), and three-year-old grass horses are featured in the Columbia Stakes.

With big fields and competitive races all day long, it is the best betting day of the Tampa Bay Downs meet. The first post is at 12:05 p.m., and you can watch and get expert analysis all day long at FanDuel TV. Don’t forget to place your bets through FanDuel as well!

Skies are expected to be clear on Tampa Bay Derby Day, but make sure to check the weather and the scratches before placing your bets, just in case, to make sure your picks remain in the race and there aren’t any key defections that affect the pace scenario.

Tampa Bay Downs Picks

Race 1 - $8,000 claiming, seven furlongs on the dirt - King Miano, Walt Whitman

FanDuel odds: 2-1 and 20-1

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Despite the field size, there is not a surfeit of speed in this race, which bodes well for King Miano (2-1). He won two starts back at the non-winners of two lifetime condition, and missed by only a head at this condition on January 29. Even better, both the last race and this one, his only two since a layoff, were over seven furlongs on the Tampa dirt with Jose Ferrer aboard. He has turned over a new leaf going seven at Tampa, and Ferrer should be ready to take advantage of his early speed again.

Walt Whitman (20-1) will be a long shot, but there are reasons he can outrun his odds. With only nine starts, he is one of the lighter-raced horses, which can be a plus against horses who are still in a lifetime condition after 20 or 30 starts. And, though most of his form has come on turf or all-weather, his debut was a perfectly solid third on the love-it-or-hate-it Tampa dirt. He has also shown a bit of tactical speed over even shorter distances than this, and if he finds that again in his second start for the Gustavo Amaya barn, he could spring a surprise.

Toss Mr Jack (5-2) on top, though consider him underneath. As one of the shortest prices in the field, he will be underlaid on the win end since he so rarely wins and so often finishes second. But, between his consistent form at Tampa Bay Downs and the fact that he has run well in both his seven-furlong starts, he is a smart underneath key.

Race 9 - Hillsborough Stakes (G2), 1 ⅛ miles on the turf - Venencia, Saffron Moon

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 9-5

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Chad Brown sends two into this spot, and the more interesting is the “other” one from his barn, Venencia (6-1). A lightly raced five-year-old, she has come into her own in four starts since a long layoff, including a stakes win two back at Aqueduct and then a good third in the Endeavour (G2), the local prep for this race. She’ll be making her second start off a winter freshening in this, Chad Brown often moves runners forward second off a lay, she reliably makes a good late run, and she doesn’t need much improvement second-up to be a serious foe to her stablemate or to any of the other major contenders here. In short, she shapes as the newest in a line of older Chad Brown horses pointing toward a breakout effort.

The horses vying for favoritism will probably be local prep winner Saffron Moon or the undefeated Gimme a Nother. Gimme a Nother hasn’t raced in eleven months, and there are class questions between what she faced over seven starts in South Africa and what she’ll see here, in a race that so often proves to be a preview of the upper echelon of the filly and mare turf division. Saffron Moon (9-5), however, is a consistent sort who should put forth another good effort. The biggest question is the spacing, as she so rarely strings together two starts so close together. But, whenever this Chad Brown charge does race, she goes fast enough to be competitive here, and she is tactical enough to run a winning effort from virtually any race shape as long as she’s running on the lawn.

Race 13 - Tampa Bay Derby (G3), 1 1/16 miles on the dirt - Hill Road, Chancer McPatrick

FanDuel odds: 4-1 and 8-5

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Though there are only seven horses in the race, there is a lot of early speed, which is good news for a pair of quality closers from the barn of Chad Brown. Most of the attention will be on Chancer McPatrick (8-5), a two-time Grade 1 winner last year who never threatened in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, his first try at two turns. He still has to prove himself going longer, but Brown is as good as it gets with route horses, and his pedigree is excellent for the added distance and also for the idea that he’ll get better with some time to grow up. He will be doing his best work when the speed is tiring.

However, that is also the case for the other Chad Brown horse: Hill Road (4-1). Just like his favored stablemate, Hill Road also makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile—and it was Hill Road, not Chancer McPatrick, who was the only non-Baffert horse in the superfecta that day. Hill Road’s new blinkers may give him a slight jump on Chancer McPatrick, a positive at Tampa, but he is a proven closer from a barn who comes in red-hot off the lay. Both Chad Browns are live, but Hill Road is the more interesting bet because he is the one likely to be ignored.

If there is a scratch from the race, give Patch Adams (2-1) a longer look than otherwise. The way the race drew, he is likely to get caught up in a rip-roaring pace scenario. But, he is drawn in the clean outside gate, and if any of the other speed horses in the race are scratched, he is upgraded, and the closers’ job get a little bit harder.

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