Super Bowl Odds Heading Into Week 1: Chiefs, 49ers Ahead of the Pack

Week 1 is here, and optimism abounds for each of the 32 NFL franchises.

While there are obviously some teams with significantly better outlooks than others heading into the 2024 campaign, things can change quickly in the NFL. At this time a year ago, the Houston Texans were tied for the longest Super Bowl odds at +20000. Houston went on to win the AFC South in 2023 and enters this year as a true title contender at +1500, tied for the fifth-shortest odds, per the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Where does everyone else stand as we near kickoff for Week 1? Let's dive in.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, and lines may change after this article is published.

Super Bowl Odds

Last Year's Big Game Participants

Last season's Super Bowl combatants, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, are in their own tier as the only teams with Super Bowl odds shorter than +1100. The Chiefs are the favorites, listed at +550 odds to win the Super Bowl, while the 49ers (+600) are a touch behind.

numberFire's nERD-based NFL power rankings also have KC and San Fran as the league's top two teams. These two sides check all the boxes and figure to be Super Bowl contenders all year long.

Who Stands Out From the Next Tier?

After last year's Super Bowl teams, there are nine squads with Super Bowl odds between +1100 and +1800. Two of the teams catch my eye: Baltimore Ravens (+1100) and Cincinnati Bengals (+1500).

As AFC North foes, the Ravens' and Bengals' title odds are somewhat tied together -- if either one wins the division, that squad will have a better shot of taking home the Lombardi due to getting at least one home playoff game (and potentially a bye). Per usual, the AFC North will be a grind, and heading into the opening week, the Ravens (+145 odds to win the AFC North) are slight division favorites over Cincy (+165). But I think both make sense as Super Bowl bets.

The case for Baltimore is pretty simple -- at the end of last year's regular season, the Ravens looked like the NFL's best team. They held the No. 1 seed in the AFC and went to San Francisco late in the regular season and won by 14 points. For 2024, numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics have the Ravens projected to be 2nd in defense and 10th in offense. numberFire sees the Ravens as a value at +1100, with their model giving Baltimore a 10.1% chance to win it all, which comes out to +890 odds.

As for Cincinnati, things fell apart for the Bengals last year when Joe Burrow went down, but last year's bad luck is this season's good fortune. Due to finishing in last in the division, Cincy gets an easier schedule this season -- the fifth-easiest schedule going by 2024 win totals. That's a big deal, especially given that the three other AFC North teams all have among the nine toughest schedules.

If Burrow can stay healthy and Cincy can take advantage of its schedule, the Bengals will be in the thick of things in a tough AFC.

Digging Deeper

For the teams following the above tier, it starts to become tough to craft a tale that ends in one of these squads winning a Super Bowl. But it's not impossible.

Among the teams at +2200 or longer, the Atlanta Falcons are worth a look.

Atlanta was one of the buzzy teams this offseason. That doesn't always lead to a quality season, but I think the Falcons are intriguing. Not only did they land Kirk Cousins in free agency, but the Falcons also drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall. They clearly don't want to spend another year in QB purgatory and have addressed -- or at least very much attempted to address -- their most glaring need.

Cousins was having an excellent season in 2023 prior to getting injured, and he ended the campaign ranked third in passer rating and sixth in adjusted net yards per pass attempt, although his sample was only eight games. If Cousins can play at that level, Atlanta's offense should be vastly improved as they're pretty loaded at the skill positions. They should also be solid on defense, with numberFire's metrics ranking Atlanta's D 10th, and the addition of defensive-minded head coach Raheem Morris can't hurt on that side of the ball.

In addition to all that, the Falcons benefit greatly from a blah AFC South. Going by 2024 win totals, Atlanta has the NFL's easiest schedule. Oddsmakers are expecting big things as the Falcons are listed at -145 odds to win the NFC South -- making Atlanta the third-biggest division favorite -- with a win total of 9.5 (-154 odds on the over), per FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL win totals.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.