Super Bowl Odds Update: Chiefs Streaking While Dolphins Waver
With four weeks of gridiron action completed, the Super Bowl LVIII odds market is beginning to emerge more clearly.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills have been championship frontrunners from the jump. Entering NFL Week 5, they all remain as such after victories last Sunday.
From there, sides such as the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions round out the next grouping of shorter Super Bowl odds holders. These squads have all shown flashes of dominance, yet all here have sustained a questionable loss in 2023.
Then you have a crop of AFC hopefuls that features the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars -- does anyone really know what to expect from bunches like that?
Of course, back in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are fresh off defeating the rival New Orleans Saints in their most recent game. However, FanDuel Sportsbook is still showing more comparative respect for Who Dat Nation.
Now that Monday night's affair between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants has passed, we can turn our full attention toward Week 5.
Keep in mind: the games get underway this week with Thursday Night Football in the nation's capital between the winless Chicago Bears -- who are now vying with the Carolina Panthers to not be this year's final remaining winless team -- and pleasantly surprising Washington Commanders.
For the meantime, let's review the current Super Bowl winner pricing at what used to be the quarter-tentpole of the NFL regular season (but naturally, 18 weeks is not wholly divisible by 4).
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
*Denotes Super Bowl LVII participant
Notable Jumps
Kansas City Chiefs
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +550
Last Week: +600
Despite being pushed to the limit by the Zach Wilson-led New York Jets, the defending-champion Chiefs are still sitting pretty atop the AFC West at 3-1 and have now won three games consecutively. However, their hot-and-cold performances in 2023 has them down at fifth overall (6.67 nERD), according to the NFL power rankings on numberFire.
Transparently, I think some K.C. fans might trade Taylor Swift's notable appearances for that of Eric Bieniemy; the Chiefs have produced 25.3 points per game this year, which is down from their 28.8 scoring clip over the previous four seasons -- a stretch spanning 66 regular season games.
Reigning MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes isn't playing totally abysmal, though his four interceptions in as many games is not on par with his standard. Either way, his rating of 92.0 in 2023 is still respectable. Certainly, it feels like a vintage game between he and All-Pro tight end (and the Swifties' favorite player) Travis Kelce could be just around the corner.
The recent win over Gang Green was a little ugly, but with it, Kansas City saw their Super Bowl LVIII odds shorten at FanDuel Sportsbook for the first time this season, going from +600 odds last week (exactly what it began the campaign at) to +550 currently.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +6500
Last Week: +8000
As alluded to, the Bucs are sailing the NFL seas with confidence after handily defeating division rival New Orleans 26-9 at the Superdome. At 3-1 with that major road win, Tampa Bay is now in the NFC South's driver seat. Through scrappy play from resurging quarterback Baker Mayfield and a stout defense (allowing just 17.0 points per this season), the Buccaneers may turn some heads by year's end.
The defensive core of Lavonte David, Devin White, Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett and Antoine Winfield Jr. appear back in true form. They were all members of Tampa's most recent title run (surrendering 22.2 PPG in 2020) and round out an incredibly athletic unit. In Week 5, the group is part of the first wave of byes; don't expect to see Tampa Bay in action this weekend.
Oddsmakers at all shops are beginning to show increased respect for the Bucs. Tampa Bay started the season priced at +7500 to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in Las Vegas next February. After inflating to +8000 following Week 3, Tampa is now +6500 in the market. Someone has the win the NFC South, and the Buccaneers currently show +185 odds to earn their divisional crown.
Minnesota Vikings
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +5000
Last Week: +6000
Well, it finally happened. Four weeks in, the Minnesota Vikings won their first game of the 2023-24 NFL regular season. It was a single-score victory over the still-winless Panthers, but at least Minnesota got the initial, exorbitantly heavy monkey off their backs. Notably, the win shrunk the Vikings' Super Bowl odds from 60-to-1 to 50-to-1. So, what happens next for the Vikes?
As reigning NFC North champions, Minnesota entered the year with high hopes. Now at 1-3, they will be working behind the eight-ball (not a Kirk Cousins pun), especially with two games against Detroit over the season's final three weeks. In the immediate future, it will be the good, the bad and the ugly for Minnesota. In chronological order, they will next face K.C., Chicago, San Francisco and the rival Green Bay Packers.
The Vikes are still displaying a dazzling connection between Cousins and All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson. The latter is averaging a booming 135.75 receiving yards per game (11.6 yards per target) in 2023, finding the end zone three times thus far. As for Cousins, he has compiled the third-most passing yards (1,214) to this point. Also, his 11 touchdown tosses pace the NFL right now. With Minnesota's defense forcing only 1.0 turnover per game while giving up an average of 23.8 points, it will be an uphill battle for the Twin Cities.
Steep Drops
Cincinnati Bengals
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +2800
Last Week: +1700
Ah, what do we make of the struggling Bengals? They began the current campaign with expectations as lofty as anyones -- even securing franchise signal-caller Joe Burrow to a record contract last month. Considering Cincy has appeared in back-to-back AFC championship games, they are now approaching "panic mode" after starting 2023 at 1-3, falling into the divisional cellar.
Part of the Bengals' needed urgency is the fact that they play in such a competitive circuit. The AFC North will be tough as per usual; games with Cleveland and Baltimore are always physical. So, will Burrow's ailing calf hold strong down the stretch? He has looked noticeably disgruntled this year, operating with a low completion clip of 57.6%. Burrow's current QBR of 33.6 certainly isn't aiding the cause.
Cincinnati did solid to defeat the Los Angeles Rams in a Week 3 revenge match but reverted back to poor play last week versus the Tennessee Titans; the Bengals were kept out of the end zone in the most recent contest. Of course, All-Pro receiver Ja'Marr Chase expressed frustrations after the abominable showing in Nashville. Regardless, Cincy is back down at +2800 odds to win the Super Bowl, and numberFire's model now gives them just a 1.4% chance to reach the big game in Sin City.
Miami Dolphins
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1300
Last Week: +1000
An early season darling, Miami's Super LVIII pricing has increased for the first time this year. The Dolphins entered the 2023 campaign showing +2100 odds in the market before subsequently dropping after each of their three wins. Prior to last Sunday's loss at Buffalo, Miami was down to 10-to-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy. Now back at +1300 here, the Dolphins are headed for a Week 5 tilt hosting Big Blue.
Miami's speed has been talk of the league in 2023. With Jaylen Waddle now back in the lineup, athletes like Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane can hit top gear. Really, it is no surprise to already see those players atop this season's fastest ball carriers. Also, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been prolific through four games. Right now, he is tied as the second-favorite with +500 odds in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL MVP betting.
Tua currently has the pinnacle QBR of the AFC at 79.0. He has been masterfully productive behind a 71.3% completion rate and 3:1 overall touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, with Miami's defense underperforming right now (allowing a dizzying 29.8 points per game in 2023), can the group in South Florida produce a circumspect effort?
Green Bay Packers
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +5500
Last Week: +3800
Initially, the post-Aaron Rodgers era started off smoothly for Green Bay. Incumbent signal-caller Jordan Love played efficiently through the first two contests of the year before sputtering in the two games since. Of course, the tide has turned in the NFC North as the Lions now appear to be king of the jungle in that grouping.
Overall, Love has been poised behind a 8:3 TD-INT ratio, but what sort of production will he offer among a larger sample size? He averaged a rating of 118.5 in the first two weeks only to have that value fall to 68.15 in Weeks 3 and 4. Thankfully, the young quarterback has a top-10 offensive line (according to Pro Football Focus) to learn behind.
The Pack saw their price in the Super Bowl market fall to as short as +3500 after Week 2. Since then, they have cascaded to 55-to-1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Considering that Green Bay travels to the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos for their next two games, the Packers' championship stock could soon change directions again.
Honorable Mentions
Trending Up
- Philadelphia Eagles (+650)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+2800; Week 5 bye)
Falling Down
- New Orleans Saints (+4300)
- Tennessee Titans (+7000)
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.