Super Bowl Odds Update: 49ers Stay Golden, Cowboys Outdueled in Desert
With one sixth of the NFL regular season now completed, it is quite interesting to survey the current competitive landscape.
We were all treated to another Monday night doubleheader in Week 3. The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Cincinnati Bengals avenged their recent Super Bowl loss against the Los Angeles Rams. However, that only served as encore to what was already a ludicrous weekend around the NFL.
In Week 3, the Boys traveled out to the desert only to be burnt by the Arizona Cardinals, 28-16; Dallas had a -720 moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook as late as Friday afternoon. For Jacksonville, they fell at home to the Houston Texans. In tantamount fashion, head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud earned their first career wins at post, 37-17.
Also around the league, the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins both moved to 3-0 in convincing fashion. Additionally, the Kansas City Chiefs eviscerated the Chicago Bears, 41-10. Taylor Swift was at Arrowhead to cheer on Travis Kelce's second-half touchdown reception.
As usual, it'll be a couple of moons before Thursday Night Football commences the NFL action yet again. This week features an NFC North battle at Lambeau between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
In the short break, let's have a look at the current Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Current Odds to Win Super Bowl LVIII
Last Super Bowl Win
|T1||Kansas City Chiefs*||+600||+600||2023|
|T1||San Francisco 49ers||+600||+1000||1995|
*Denotes Super Bowl LVII participant
San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +600
Last Week: +700
Having started the 2023-24 season with the fourth-best odds to win Super Bowl LVIII (+1000), the 49ers are now joint-favorites (with Kansas City) in the market at +600. San Francisco has began the year 3-0 for the first time since 2019, a campaign they eventually reached the big game. Still, quite a bit has changed in Northern California since then.
Interestingly enough, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance are now with rival organizations, and Brock Purdy is now the guy for San Francisco. Mesmerizingly, the second-year signal-caller from Iowa State is 8-0 in eight regular season games started. Since head coach Kyle Shanahan gave Purdy the keys to the car in 2023, he has completed 67% of his passes with four touchdowns, no interceptions and one rushing score.
Of course, there is much more going on in the Bay Area besides the quarterback position. There are All-Pro players in the trenches such as Trent Williams and reigning DPOY Nick Bosa. From there, a skill cast led by Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Fred Warner, George Kittle, Talanoa Hufanga and Brandon Aiyuk makes San Francisco incredibly deep on both sides of the game.
The Niners have scored exactly 30 points in all three contests this season, winning by an average margin of 16.0 points per game. Frankly, they look to be dominant. Per the power rankings on numberFire, San Francisco is rated third-best in the NFL (9.98 nERD).
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +950
Last Week: +1000
The Buffalo Bills didn't exactly come out of the gate as they would have liked, losing on the first Monday of the 2023-24 season in embarrassing fashion to the rival New York Jets sans Aaron Rodgers. In two games since, Josh Allen, who had four turnovers in the opening-night loss, has done his best to again silence the doubters, scoring five touchdowns behind 545 all-purpose yards in that span. Right now, Allen's NFL MVP odds are back to +700 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Perhaps even more uplifting for Bills Mafia was their most recent showing at the Washington Commanders. On the road, Buffalo produced a "team victory," scoring touchdowns twice on the ground and once through the air. They also intercepted Sam Howell four times with A.J. Epenesa taking one back to the house. It all added up to a 37-10 win in the nation's capital.
We're two weeks removed from Allen's four-turnover night, and Buffalo appears back in familiar form. At the moment, they boast the second-ranked scoring offense and defense. Even with Von Miller still rehabbing an injury, the Bills have veteran presences in Stefon Diggs, Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer and Matt Milano. Can they be enough to shake the franchise's postseason woes? Western New York is still looking for that elusive first Lombardi Trophy.
We should see some movement with Buffalo after their Week 4 contest; a heavyweight showdown with the Dolphins awaits.
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1000
Last Week: +1300
Speaking of the 'Fins, Miami is off to a white-hot start in 2023, beginning 3-0 for the second consecutive season. Somewhat surprisingly, Tua Tagovailoa has emerged as the early frontrunner for the upcoming league MVP award. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the fourth-year quarterback from Alabama currently has +350 odds in the MVP betting market despite beginning the season at +1600.
The Dolphins are another side built solid completely through. On offense, their speed is unrivaled. Thanks to Tyreek Hill, De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, Miami is responsible for the five fastest ball carrier plays of 2023 so far. On defense, they play with physicality and relentless, causing five total takeways in three games.
With a current scoring clip of 43.3 points per game (including a 70-piece nugget last weekend), the Dolphins are swimming in a class all their own. Can they reasonably sustain 550.3 total yards per contest? I'm not sure, but we are about to find out.
Undoubtedly, the Dolphins have been one of the most exciting teams through the early weeks of the season. Still, after winning the first three games of last year, Miami followed up with three straight losses; can they do better this time around? As alluded to, a tough task awaits for the 'Fins in Week 4. They travel to rival Buffalo where we we'll see our first 2023 meeting of the AFC East's best.
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +1000
Last Week: +850
The power rankings on numberFire still have Dallas in the top five (6.80 nERD), but they are doing all they can to expeditiously move on from last Sunday's loss. Out in the desert, the Cowboys were favored by double digits versus the Cardinals only to be upset by 12 points themselves. Naturally, a late red-zone interception from Dak Prescott sealed the victory for Arizona.
Even with the embarrassing loss on the record compiled to the loss of All-Pro cornerback Trevon Diggs to injury, the Cowboys are still authentic title contenders in 2023. However, Dallas displayed major issues defending the ground game last week, surrendering 222 rushing yards with 2 running scores in Arizona. Regardless, Micah Parsons still flew around for five tackles and one quarterback sack.
A team many football analysts seemed to love right out of the gate, the Cowboys are flux with talent, but perhaps their defensive abilities as a team have been overestimated. Up until last week against the Cards, the offense had not been asked to do much.
Still, there will come moments where Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard and Dallas' big offensive line will need to take over a game. As always, ball security should be the highest priority for the 'Boys.
Now inflated at 10-to-1 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, Dallas is absolutely worth a look in the Super Bowl LVIII market. Expect reactions around this franchise to always be strong -- both at the window and in the media.
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +3200
Last Week: +2600
As referenced, Jacksonville was the other NFL side subjected to a brutal upset loss in Week 3. Hosting the divisional rival Texans, the Jaguars (-390 ML) were carved up by a career day from Stroud, who completed a pass to nine different players.
However, it was ultimately Jacksonville's turnovers that spoiled their day. Receiver Jamal Agnew lost a fumble while Trevor Lawrence threw an interception -- both of which resulted in points for Houston. Still, is this something the young Jaguar team can be coached up on as the year progresses?
Like others, I think there is plenty to like about the side from Duval County. Their offensive skill group has quality athletes in Calvin Ridley, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne. Lawrence might be off to a slower start (84.5 passer rating in 2023), but he has shown growth since entering the NFL. I don't doubt that they eventually get it rolling in Jacksonville.
Now 1-2, the Jags show +3200 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the franchise's first Lombardi Trophy. However, keep in mind that they remain the favorite in AFC South betting, showing a price of +135 in that market.
New Orleans Saints
FanDuel Sportsbook Odds: +3500
Last Week: +2800
Three quarters into last Sunday's contest at Lambeau Field, and it seemed the New Orleans Saints were cruising to a 3-0 start to the season. Of course, Jordan Love and Green Bay had other plans. Despite "Who Dat" jumping out to a 17-0 lead on the road, they were shutout in the second half while surrendering 18 points in the final period.
The loss was not necessarily the worst part of last weekend for the Saints. After being sacked in the third quarter by Rashan Gary, Derek Carr exited with a shoulder injury. He did not return on Sunday, and the team has since announced the ailment as a sprained AC joint to the quarterback's throwing shoulder.
Carr is not officially out for Week 4 against Tampa Bay, but head coach Dennis Allen will monitor his status day to day. Naturally, this will be a critical game since the 2-1 sides will be fighting for the NFC South crown for likely the year's entirety.
If Carr can't go, expect a cadence of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at quarterback. Along with New Orleans' defense, the two signal-callers can suffice in keeping their playoff hopes alive should Carr miss extended time, but, for the moment, NOLA's championship price at FanDuel Sportsbook lengthened to +3500.
- Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
- Cincinnati Bengals (+1700)
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.