Super Bowl LVIII Preview: An Analytical Guide to the Chiefs-49ers Matchup

The stage is finally set for the last two remaining teams in the NFL to clash in a sporting event that captures the attention of millions of people each year.

Representing the NFC is the San Francisco 49ers, who needed a second-half surge from Brock Purdy and the offense to defeat the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game. Over the entire campaign, the 49ers cemented themselves as one of the most well-rounded squads in the NFL. This is represented by the 49ers leading the league in nERD rating at 12.36, per numberFire's metrics.

On the other side of the field, the Kansas City Chiefs will be playing on behalf of the AFC despite a lack of trustworthy weapons for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs are no strangers to the big game, advancing to their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years -- including a victory over the Philadelphia Eagles in last season's Super Bowl. Kansas City earned the fifth-best nERD rating (6.62) in the NFL.

Ahead of what is expected to be a competitive Super Bowl, the 49ers are 1.5-point favorites, and the over/under is sitting at 47.5, via the Super Bowl odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Throughout this article, I'll be referencing numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric. If you need a quick run-through of what NEP is, this glossary can be a nice guide to help you understand it.

Aside from using numberFire's NEP metric, I'll also be referencing plenty of numbers and models from NextGenStats. So, without further ado, let's dive into an analytical look at the upcoming Super Bowl battle between the Chiefs and 49ers.

Please note betting lines are subject to change after this article is published. All Super Bowl odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Analytical Guide to the Super Bowl

Game Overview

Here is how each team ranks in opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, via numberFire's NEP model.

This year's Super Bowl will feature the top-ranked passing and overall offense in the NFL with the 49ers. Only the Buffalo Bills -- who the Chiefs defeated in the Divisional Round -- had a better rushing offense than the 49ers.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs recorded a top-10 overall offense in spite of not having much to work with outside of Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice in the passing game. This goes to show that Mahomes can help level-out an offense regardless of who he is throwing to.

The glaring weakness for both of these defenses is against the run. The 49ers and Chiefs are in the bottom half of the league in schedule-adjusted run defense, but the Chiefs have the second-best pass defense.

On paper, this game looks to be dependent on how San Francisco's dynamic aerial attack will perform against Kansas City's stifling pass defense. At the same time, will Mahomes be able to once again overcome a lack of firepower to win another playoff game, this time versus the strong pass defense of the 49ers?

Quarterback Overview

Here is how each quarterback performed in certain metrics across the regular season and playoffs among quarterbacks with 200-plus drop backs, via NextGenStats.

The efficiency has been through the roof for Purdy this season, which is evidenced by him leading all quarterbacks in expected points added per drop back (0.24) and passing success rate (54.4%) while attempting the 20th-most passes (444). The 49ers had Purdy throw more than 32 passes in a game just twice in his 18 starts this year entering the Super Bowl.

Even with that being the case, FanDuel Sportsbook has the over/under on Purdy's pass attempts prop listed at 31.5 for the Super Bowl.

Teams can only play the teams they're scheduled to play against, but the 49ers have undoubtedly benefited in these playoffs from facing two teams with middling defenses. Despite facing two bottom-12 teams in schedule-adjusted pass defense (the Lions and the Green Bay Packers), Purdy has seen his passing success rate drop to 47.9% this postseason.

That being said, Purdy has given the 49ers a quarterback who can make out-of-structure plays to sustain drives. Even with a limited number of passing attempts, Purdy has still posted the fifth-most passing yards (4,280) and the third-most passing touchdowns (31).

On the flip side, the Chiefs relied heavily on Mahomes to keep their offense afloat amid a shaky campaign on that side of the ball. While Mahomes is surprisingly logging just the 33rd-best completion percentage over expected (-1.7%; CPOE), the reigning Super Bowl MVP has the seventh-highest passing success rate (47.9%) and the 13th-most expected points added per drop back (0.02) among quarterbacks with 200-plus drop backs.

Mahomes' meh numbers -- by his elite standards -- can be attributed to a handful of things, including the fact he dealt with a bevy of drops, some of which led directly to turnovers. The KC signal-caller has undoubtedly raised his level of play in the playoffs, posting a +7.8% CPOE and a 53.1% passing success rate in his last two games.

What makes Mahomes' playoff run even more special is the fact his last two games have come against the Baltimore Ravens (best schedule-adjusted pass defense) and the Bills (seventh-best schedule-adjusted pass defense) -- both on the road, too. Even with the 49ers sporting the fifth-best schedule-adjusted pass defense, Mahomes has the ability to make none of that matter. His passing yards prop for the big game is up at 262.5 yards, and he's listed at -140 to go over 1.5 passing touchdowns.

How Do These Quarterbacks Handle Pressure?

Here is how each quarterback has fared in non-pressured and pressured situations across the regular season and playoffs among quarterbacks with 200-plus drop backs, via NextGenStats.

Some would assume that Mahomes is infinitely better than Purdy in non-pressured and/or pressured situations. That assumption would be wrong.

Purdy led all quarterbacks in this subset in expected points added per play (0.51) and passing success rate (64.7%) when he wasn't pressured. The second-year quarterback saw his numbers decline when pressured, but he is still inside the top-10 for expected points added per play (-0.26) and passing success rate (35.5%) in that split.

Playing in a 49ers offense that is littered with talent has certainly aided Purdy in performing well when he has time to deliver passes from a clean pocket or when he's under duress. The 49ers dropped only 2.9% of Purdy's passes when he wasn't pressured (the league average rate was 3.7%) and a mere 1.4% of his passes when he was pressured (the league average rate was 3.0%)

The same can't be said for Mahomes.

The franchise quarterback of the Chiefs saw a whopping 4.3% drop rate when pressured and a 5.3% drop rate when he didn't experience any pressure. Besides drops, two-high safety looks from defenses has led to decreased numbers from Mahomes in these situations as defenses try to limit Kansas City's big plays.

When San Francisco's offense is on the field, it should be noted that Kansas City's defense owns the 15th-highest pressure rate (35.2%) and the sixth-highest blitz rate (36.3%) in the NFL. Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league when it comes to disguising coverages and blitz packages, which could be a massive test for Purdy.

The 49ers are an entirely different story as Steve Wilks -- San Francisco's defensive coordinator -- is reliant on his front four to get home on passing downs. With Nick Bosa and Chase Young manning the edges, the 49ers have the ninth-highest pressure rate (38.1%) despite blitzing at the third-lowest rate (20.4%). Bosa is listed at +260 to record the most sacks in the Super Bowl and +180 to notch San Fran's first sack of the game.

Sacking Mahomes is easier said than done as the magician-like quarterback is masterful when it comes to avoiding sacks. The league average sack rate is 18.6% on pressured looks, but Mahomes has been sacked on only 13.0% of his pressured drop backs. Those escapes sometimes lead to gains on the ground, with Mahomes running for 15, 19 and 41 yards over the past three games. His rushing yards prop for the Super Bowl is set at 25.5 yards.

In his last six postseason games, Mahomes has been sacked a total of only five times. Getting pressure on Mahomes -- and forcing him to make rare negative plays -- is paramount to San Francisco's success in the Super Bowl.

Running Back Overview

Here is how each running back performed in certain metrics across the regular season and the playoffs among running backs with 100-plus rushes, via NextGenStats.

All eyes are typically on the quarterbacks in the Super Bowl, but we shouldn't forget about the rushing attacks. The 49ers and the Chiefs are teams that ran the ball with success this season, and it just so happens that neither of these defenses are dominant against the run.

Christian McCaffrey needs no introduction at the running back position after leading the NFL in total rushing yards (1,647) and rushing touchdowns (18). The versatile running back has the second-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.29) and the second-highest rushing success rate (46.9%) among backs with 100-plus attempts.

With the Chiefs boasting the fifth-worst schedule-adjusted run defense, McCaffrey could be in line for a big game. CMC averages 91.5 rushing yards per game on the most adjusted opportunities per game (28.3) -- with adjusted opportunities accounting for carries plus 2x targets -- and the Chiefs' defense is surrendering the ninth-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.42). His rushing prop is set at 90.5 and CMC's rushing plus receiving yards line is at 129.5 yards.

Kansas City's ground game has been spearheaded by Isiah Pacheco. The aggressive runner has registered the 11th-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.38) on the 13th-most adjusted opportunities per game (22.2).

The 49ers have just the 18th-best schedule-adjusted run defense in the NFL. Even with Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw patrolling the middle of the field, San Francisco's defense boasts the third-worst rushing success rate (55.9%).

Pacheco's rushing yards prop comes in at 67.5 yards. His line for rushing plus receiving yards sits at 89.5 yards.

Being that Purdy has flashed some inconsistencies in recent games, the 49ers could elect to attack the Chiefs on the ground with McCaffrey in hopes to keep Mahomes on the sideline. And the Chiefs could in turn lean on Pacheco a bit more to ease some pressure off Mahomes, with intention of attacking San Fran's defensive weakness and to potentially force the 49ers to play fewer two-high safety looks.

Pass-Catcher Overview

Here is how each team's pass-catchers -- those with 50-plus targets -- performed across the regular season and the playoffs, via NextGenStats. The ranks in yards per route run are calculated among the 139 qualified pass-catchers with 50-plus targets.

It goes without saying that the 49ers boast the most effective skill-player group in the NFL. Besides McCaffrey giving them an elite dual-threat weapon out of the backfield, all of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle can do plenty of damage in the passing game.

Aiyuk led the 49ers across the board in receptions (81), targets (119), receiving yards (1,442), receiving touchdowns (8), and yards per route run (2.76). Samuel is a do-it-all receiver who is deployed in a variety of ways, including Deebo turning 40 rushing attempts into 232 yards and five scores on the ground.

Aiyuk -- whose receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards -- has just 100 total receiving yards through two playoff games this year and has been kept fairly quiet outside of the immaculate deflection catch versus Detroit. Samuel appeared to be close to fully healthy in the NFC title game after exiting early in the Divisional Round. His receiving yards line is listed at 56.5 yards.

The Chiefs have the second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense, permitting the second-lowest CPOE (-0.04) and the fourth-best success rate (59.5%) against the pass. At the same time, Shanahan is fantastic at scheming up ways to generate open receivers for Purdy to target. It shapes up as an excellent battle.

For the Chiefs, the vast majority of their passing production comes from Kelce and Rice. Despite leading Kansas City's offense in receptions (116), targets (148), receiving yards (1,246), and receiving touchdowns (8), Kelce had a bit of a down year. But the veteran tight end has been extremely effective in the postseason thus far, amassing at least 71 yards in each game and scoring three total touchdowns.

In the three playoff games, Kelce leads the team in target share (29.7%), air yards share (30.3%), and yards per route run (2.94). Rice is right behind Kelce in target share (27.5%) and yards per route run (2.42) during Kansas City's Super Bowl run.

The strength of the San Francisco D is its fifth-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. Despite the tough matchup, Kelce's receiving yards prop is at 70.5, tops among all Super Bowl pass-catchers. Rice's (67.5) isn't too far behind, and both are expected to be the focal points for Mahomes.

Aside from the usual culprits of Kelce and Rice, the Chiefs deploy a few different receivers, mainly Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson. We've seen the Chiefs shift more to 12 and 13 personnel looks in the playoffs. This is indicated by Noah Gray -- whose receiving yards prop is at 12.5 yards -- notching the fourth-highest snap share (55.9%) among the team's receivers and tight ends this postseason.

Special Teams Overview

Here is how each team ranks in opponent-adjusted special teams efficiency, via numberFire's NEP model.

Any game can come down to a kicker attempting a decisive field goal or a punter needing to pin the opposing team deep to flip field position in a crucial moment. Special teams is never an overly exciting aspect of the game to talk about, but it tends to be a crucial area of the game -- especially in close matchups.

The Chiefs and the 49ers are on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to how their special teams units have performed. Kansas City is in the top-10 in total special teams NEP largely due to Harrison Butker tallying the ninth-most NEP per field-goal attempt (0.84) by making 40 of his 42 field-goal tries.

The 49ers haven't received the same level of consistency from their placekicker, with rookie Jake Moody converting only 24 of his 30 field-goal attempts. Moody has missed two of his five field-goal tries in the playoffs, and the third-round pick out of Michigan has the ninth-lowest NEP per field-goal attempt (0.16) among 39 kickers.

Butker's kicking points line it set at 7.5 while Moody's is at 6.5.

San Francisco's high-flying offense rarely ends drives with punts, but Mitch Wishnowsky has made the most of his limited opportunities. The punter for the 49ers has seen 50% of his punts result in pinning the opponent inside its 20 yard-line, which was good enough for the second-highest mark in the NFL.

The Chiefs haven't been able to rely on Tommy Townsend to do the same for them in the punting department. Townsend has turned only 33.9% of his punts into kicks where the other team is beginning its drive inside their own 20-yard line.

All in all, the Chiefs have the more reliable kicker who they can trust to make a clutch field goal while the 49ers have a punter who can flip field position when they need it. The positive news for both special teams units is that weather won't be a factor with the Super Bowl being played in a dome at Allegiant Stadium.

Final Overview

The 2023 season comes down to a Super Bowl rematch between the Chiefs and the 49ers, and we are expected to get a close, competitive contest given the narrow spread, one that currently favors San Francisco.

Taking into account all of the NEP ranks, who is expected to emerge victorious when the final whistle is blown?

According to numberFire's algorithm, the 49ers have a 56% chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, and numberFire projects the point spread at 1.9 points in favor of the Niners. Both of those fall in line with the current betting market as San Fran's -130 moneyline implies odds of 56.5%, and the Niners are 1.5 point favorites.

The 49ers unquestionably have the better roster. Will it be enough to overcome KC's elite defense and a quarterback like Mahomes, an all-time great?

People from all over the world tune in to the Super Bowl for various reasons -- whether it be for football, commercials, performances, or theatrics of the entire colossal event. After last season's 38-35 thriller between KC and Philly, the hope is we get another proximate result in this year's spectacle.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.