Super Bowl Betting: Which Teams Will Match Up in the Big Game?
With just three games remaining, the NFL season is nearing its end. The final stage is nearly set. The winners of this weekend's highly anticipated AFC and NFC Championship Games will go head-to-head in the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 11th for the Lombardi Trophy.
Which teams have the best odds of making it to the big game?
According to FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl Matchup Odds, here are the combinations of teams we are most likely to see square off on Super Bowl Sunday:
AFC Team | NFC Team | Odds |
---|---|---|
Baltimore | San Francisco | +100 |
Kansas City | San Francisco | +240 |
Baltimore | Detroit | +430 |
Kansas City | Detroit | +800 |
Super Bowl Matchup Odds
Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers (+100)
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, our most likely Super Bowl matchup will feature each of the AFC and NFC's top seeds from the regular season -- makes sense.
The Baltimore Ravens claimed a definitive win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, proving once again that they're an elite team, while the San Francisco 49ers were able to rise above the surging Green Bay Packers in their first game of the playoffs despite losing stud playmaker Deebo Samuel in the early part of the contest.
A Super Bowl matchup between these two top seeds implies that the Ravens will overcome the Kansas City Chiefs and that the 49ers will knock off the Detroit Lions this coming weekend. FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds peg the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites over the reigning Super Bowl champs and list the 49ers as 7.0-point favorites over the Lions, which lines up with this matchup's +100 odds (strongest among the possible outcomes).
So, what makes these teams special?
In Baltimore's case, it's the combination of likely MVP-winner Lamar Jackson and the number-one-ranked defense, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. The Ravens' defense didn't allow the Texans to score a single offensive touchdown and blanked their Divisional Round foes for the entire second half. Jackson more than held up his half of the bargain, as well, notching four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) while leading his team in rushing yards with 100.
The Ravens are a ferocious team right now and one the betting market favors over the Chiefs.
The 49ers are deserving of their current 7.0-point handicap over the Lions this weekend, which is also reflected in San Fran having the best odds to emerge as the NFC's Super Bowl contender (+100 versus Baltimore and +240 versus the Chiefs). numberFire's metrics pegged the Niners' offense as the best in the league by a fairly wide margin -- they did, after all, lead the league in yards per play (6.6). The 49ers should have little issue putting points on the board against the Lions' defense, a unit that allowed the fifth-most points this year.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers (+240)
As good as the Ravens have been and even with all the uncharacteristic struggles we saw the Chiefs' offense battle through in the regular season, it's hard to count out Kansas City.
The Chiefs have made it at least this far in each of Patrick Mahomes' first six seasons as a starter, with two Super Bowl wins in three Super Bowl appearances. They have been inevitable.
The Ravens have been the superior AFC team all year, but would it really surprise anyone if the Chiefs emerge victorious this Sunday? The KC defense has been great -- ranking fourth-best in numberFire's metrics -- but not as good as the Ravens' D has been. And the Chiefs' offense ranked just ninth-best, with Mahomes posting the lowest touchdown rate (4.5%) and highest interception (2.3%) and sack rates (4.3%) of his career.
That said, Mahomes has risen above his team's overall struggles in KC's two postseason affairs this year. Despite back-to-back battles with tough AFC East opponents to open his playoff run, Mahomes has averaged an elite 8.39 adjusted yards per attempt without any interceptions or sacks through two games. He's been pretty much perfect when it has mattered most, giving his team a decent shot at making yet another Super Bowl appearance.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Detroit Lions (+430)
We've already covered what makes the Ravens the likeliest candidate to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and what makes the 49ers deserving favorites over the Lions. But the Lions still have a fighting chance at making their first Super Bowl showing in franchise history and their first "finals" appearance since the 1950s.
Detroit has a legitimate path to victory this weekend against the 49ers, and it's their running game.
The Lions' offense rushed for the fifth-highest yards per carry (4.6) with the fifth-most rushing yards per game (135.9) in the regular season, and they'll see a Niners D that was surprisingly average against the run. Despite allowing the third-fewest rushing yards (1,525), the 49ers' rushing defense sits just 16th, per numberFire. The team just spent so much time with comfortable leads that their opponents had a league-low 369 total rushing attempts.
We saw the Packers succeed with a similar strategy last week -- stud running back Aaron Jones took 18 carries for 108 yards and kept his team alive deep into the fourth quarter.
In other words, if Detroit's O-Line and backfield of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs can keep their offense on track, the underdog Lions might be able to do a surprisingly good job of keeping pace with the 49ers' elite offense. Unfortunately, there has already been a wrench thrown into that plan for the Lions, who saw center Frank Ragnow and guard Jonah Jackson -- two critical starting offensive lineman -- suffer injuries during their Divisional Round victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Lions' path to victory would become even narrower without two of their best linemen, another reason that their odds of making the Super Bowl lag behind those of the other four teams.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions (+800)
It may not be the likeliest Super Bowl matchup of the four remaining possible combinations, but could there be a more fitting game to end the 2023 season than a rematch between the two teams we saw square off back in the season opener?
In order to see a bookend matchup, we'll need both of this weekend's underdogs to prevail -- which is why a KC-Lions rematch has odds as long as +800. But neither the Chiefs nor the Lions are traditional underdogs. Each team entered the year with high expectations. According to opening lines, the Chiefs were favorites in each real game they played this season (excluding a virtual bye week in Week 18). They entered the Divisional Round as underdogs to the Bills but came up with a win from that one.
Likewise, the Lions were favorites in all but three of their games this year -- one of which was Detroit's Week 1 game against the Chiefs. They won two of those three games, rising to the occasion more often than not.
In other words, while banking on KC and Detroit to play in the finale means you are backing two underdogs this weekend -- you're still betting on two of the NFL's best teams.
If you want to look deeper into any of Sunday's Conference Championship games, consider taking advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL Playoffs No-Sweat Same Game Parlay. Check the promotions page for more information.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.