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Sunday Night Football Preview: Will Dolphins Make a Splash Against Eagles?

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

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Sunday Night Football Preview: Will Dolphins Make a Splash Against Eagles?

Sunday Night Football features the top matchup of Week 7 between the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles. Both teams sit at 5-1, and the Dolphins (+1000) and Eagles (+750) are within the top five favorites to win it all, per FanDuel Sportsbook's Super Bowl odds. It's about time we got an intriguing SNF game, but will it just disappoint like the Dallas Cowboys vs. the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5?

Philadelphia sustained its first loss of the season in Week 6 with a surprising 20-14 defeat as 6.5-point favorites against the New York Jets. Since Week 4's 48-20 loss against the Buffalo Bills, Miami has returned to its dominant form, winning back-to-back games by an average margin of 18.0 points per game.

Will this highly anticipated matchup live up to the hype? Let's breakdown the matchup and look at the latest lines for the Dolphins-Eagles.

Dolphins vs. Eagles Week 7 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

  • Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-118)
  • Total: 51.5
  • Moneyline:
    • Eagles: -152
    • Dolphins: +128

Dolphins vs. Eagles Week 7 Matchup Analysis

This is about as good as it gets for a regular-season matchup. The Dolphins and Eagles are both viewed as contenders, touting some of the best units in football. To add to the hype, Philadelphia will don its Kelly Green uniforms for the first time since 2010. For those who care, this is going to be uniform heaven.

As you can tell, I'm pretty excited about the throwback uniforms making a return -- just like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bringing back their creamsicle uniforms. Let's dig into the actual Dolphins-Eagles matchup, though.

As mentioned, these teams have some of the best units in football. Miami's offense boasts elite numbers in nearly every category; it is first overall in numberFire's adjusted offensive rankings, second when rushing the ball, and first in when passing. They are dominant.

Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa continues to enjoy an excellent season; he leads the NFL with 1,876 passing yards, 9.5 yards per passing attempt, and 14 passing touchdowns. He also leads the league with a 0.32 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB). This has thrust Tagovailoa into the MVP conversation, and he is the favorite to win the award (+330) when looking at FanDuel's NFL NFL award odds.

Tagovailoa is not the only one shining on the offense, though. Tyreek Hill is the favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year (+150) with a league-leading 814 receiving yards. De'Von Achane was shining with 58.9 rushing yards over expected (RYOE) before landed on the injured reserve ahead of Week 6, but Raheem Mostert is just fine as a replacement when he's on pace for 31 touchdowns.

Clearly, the Eagles' defense is going to have their work cut out for them. Fortunately, rookie defensive tackle Jalen Carter is expected to return from injury after missing Week 6. This should be a big help for Philly generating pressure, for Carter led all rookies in sacks, pressure, and win rate percentage following Week 5, per Pro Football Focus.

Philly's secondary could be vulnerable, though, as safety Reid Blankenship is questionable with a ribs injury. If Blankenship is absent, the Eagles would be without both starting safeties since Justin Evans is on the IR. Slowing the Fins could come down to the Eagles' pass rush. Miami is without its best offensive lineman, Terron Armstead, and center Connor Williams is questionable with a groin injury. Philadelphia's 20 team sacks are the third-highest mark in the league.

If the Eagles fail to generate pressure, they will likely be in trouble. They have numberFire's 6th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense and the 11th-worst overall defense. The Fins could look to air it out to Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

On the other side of the ball, Philly will likely look to run the ball often. They boast numberFire's top adjusted rush offense, and Miami features the fifth-worst run defense. According to ESPN's win block rates, the Eagles rank 1st in run block win rate, and the Dolphins are 26th in run stuff win rate.

Miami's top cornerback Xavien Howard is also questionable with a groin injury. Remember, the Fins are still without Jalen Ramsey, too, so perhaps Jalen Hurts can bounce back after throwing three picks last week.

Ultimately, I trust Philadelphia in the trenches. Winning the line of scrimmage has been the Eagles bread and butter since last season. I like Philly to cover mainly due to its potential advantage in the run game. If the Dolphins manage to pull off a win, it's time to start taking Miami's Super Bowl aspirations very seriously.

Dolphins vs. Eagles Prop Bets

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Jalen Hurts Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

The Eagles' offensive line seems to have an advantage in the run game against Miami. I'm looking to capitalize on the matchup, but D'Andre Swift comes off a disappointing performance with 18 rushing yards on 1.8 yards per carry. However, Jalen Hurts comes off his two best rushing games of the season.

Hurts totaled 72 rushing yards in Week 5 and 47 yards last week. Plus, he scored a rushing touchdown in both outings, taking his rushing touchdown total to five on the season. Targeting an anytime touchdown for Hurts could be wise, for he has a red-zone opportunity share of 40.4%. For now, we will focus on Hurts' rushing yard total.

The fourth-year QB has a projected rushing yard total of 43.5. After failing to reach 40 rushing yards in the first four weeks of the season, Hurts has eclipsed 45 rushing yards in back-to-back games. With his recent turnover struggles (four interceptions since Week 5), Philadelphia could look to run the rock more often. Plus, DeVonta Smith is questionable for Sunday with a hamstring setback, further supporting Hurts' increased usage in the run game.

Most importantly, numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings show the Eagles' run offense should have a big advantage, and Philly's run block win rate leads the league while the Fins are among the worst teams in stuff rate. Give me the over for Hurts' rushing yard total.

Raheem Mostert 60+ Rushing Yards (+134)

You are probably sensing a theme in this week's picks -- I am hammering the run games. Achane will be out for a couple of more games, but that does not mean the Dolphins will abandon the run. We saw that last week as Raheem Mostert erupted for 132 all-purpose yards (115 on the ground) and three touchdowns, earning him AFC Offensive Player of the Week.

Mostert had dire ball security issues in the previous two games, totaling three fumbles over Week 4 and Week 5. However, he did not lose the ball last week while averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Mostert has been running hard this season with 21.1 RYOE and 145 rushing yards after contact (12th in the NFL). Philly's run defense ranks in the middle of the pack (14th) in numberFire's adjusted run defense ratings, and the Dolphins rank fourth in run block win rate.

As previously mentioned, the Eagles' pass rush could be a big key in this game. Running directly at pass rushers is one way to slow down opposing defenses. We've seen this strategy deployed time and time again against some of the game's most talented edge rushers. The moral of the story? Don't expect Miami to abandon the run game.

This fares well for Mostert, who has a projected rushing yard total of 50.5. Of course, the line isn't too intriguing at -114. His alternate rushing yards offer more enticing odds -- such as +134 for 60 or more rushing yards if he gets going.


Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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